Rumble in NRM jungle: Methinks Museveni still wants to be lion king

Museveni will most likely seek to disarm the competing camps in the NRM and political interests in the country, and have everyone confused.

The political scuffles inside the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) over President Yoweri Museveni’s alleged plot to install his son, Brig. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as his successor are reaching fever pitch.

While there might be signals that Museveni is positioning Muhoozi to take over from him, I don’t see any intentions on the President’s part to do so. Let me explain this; just because a man tells a woman that he loves her and buys her flowers, does not mean he intends to marry her.

First, Museveni doesn’t think in a linear way. Take his appointments for prime minister and vice president. The first man to occupy the position, Dr Samson Kisekka, basically came with the job from the bush. After Kisekka, the only thing we knew was that he was going to appoint a Catholic, but neither Dr Speciosa Kazibwe, Dr Gilbert Bukenya, or the current VP Edward Ssekandi were obvious choices before they got the jobs.

The same was true of Prime Minister. George Cosmas Adyebo, the first PM of the NRM era, was drinking at a malwa joint in Nakawa when officials from the President’s office came to collect him to go and meet Museveni. Because the north was in rebellion then, the popular story goes that he thought he was being arrested for alleged links to insurgents, and waved farewell to his drinkmates who didn’t expect to see him alive again.

After him, it was Kintu Musoke. Musoke was Museveni’s buddy dating from their days in the Uganda Patriotic Movement (UPM), but his appointment seemed to set a pattern. Museveni’s choice for PM was not going to be anyone who had been with him in the bush. His next choice of Prof. Apolo Nsibambi seemed to confirm that.
However, after the 2011 election, something changed. Museveni appointed Amama Mbabazi, an insider and “bush” veteran as PM. It was the most obvious appointment to the PM’s position that Museveni had made, and was totally out of character.

What had changed? It seems that with the 2011 election, Museveni lost the ability to act as freely as he used to in picking his choices for top office. There are indeed some analysts who argue that the same factor was in play when he appointed his wife, First Lady Janet Museveni, as minister. If Museveni is losing wiggle room, then he is losing power influence, and I think he would have to push back against the impression that he is no longer his own man. This is because if he doesn’t, he will become even more vulnerable and lose the ability to determine the terms of his departure.

Therefore, my sense is that right now and in the coming days, we shall see him going back to the formula that allowed him to be a strongman president – i.e. being unpredictable and keeping people guessing about his next move.

Of course, it is comical to see NRM officials and officers who for 20 years helped Museveni subvert Ugandans ability to freely choose their leaders at elections, demanding that the NRM should be allowed to democratically choose its next leader.

That is not about to happen. However, Museveni is now confronted with two choices about his political future. First, does he begin his exit procedures so that he steps down in 2016 after 30 years in power? I think he will want to stay and “prepare for succession”. The talk of a “Muhoozi project” only makes that more likely, because essentially he is saying “you can have Muhoozi if you want me to step down in 2016, or support my bid for five more years”. Many people, I suspect, would rather have five more years of Museveni.

So the “Muhoozi project” is possibly a kite. Going by the public reaction, it will be a deeply unpopular choice, and Muhoozi would have to crack down hard to remain in power. An unpopular successor would endanger a retired Museveni, so that is probably out.

Secondly, he is asking himself which is the more secure option; a successor who feels entitled to the job (say Brig. Muhoozi or PM Mbabazi) or one who will be grateful, because he is an outsider who is not in the inner circle, and therefore didn’t expect to “eat” the chieftainship?

Museveni will most likely seek to disarm the competing camps in the NRM and political interests in the country, and have everyone confused. That would leave him as the most powerful individual for a few years, even if he were retired.

I might be wrong, but for that reason, Museveni might pick a wild card candidate for successor. Being Kaguta, he will probably seek a new alliance to secure his retirement. Muhoozi or Amama can be Museveni’s successor, but they will have to fight for the job, and win.

cobbo@ke.nationmedia.com & twitter:cobbo3