Our financial mismanagement syllabus is written into law and unless it is arrested soon will have even more serious consequences...

President Museveni’s 4th electoral term has run into several challenges. The core brand is impaired: strong on national defence, astute on the economy and striking the right balance on free giveaways clothed in populist messaging carrying along with donors and other apologists for a failing economy.

While most political battles are expected, the country is sharply divided on many issues. Some political factions want more centralised control of the government, others a more militarised oversight of core government functions. A failing grade on the economy and public finances is an existential national security threat.

The apex of our economic system is managed by two relatives: the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. The Ministry of Finance writes the budget, disburses funds to government departments, sets fiscal policy and targets, collects economic statistics, manages foreign investment, oversees the insurance sector, is in charge of core government assets.

The Minister of Finance is also responsible for NSSF. Policy responsibilities for the Minister extend to the national census, the National Planning Authority and other mind-numbing details.
The Central Bank is the government’s banker. It disburses facilities on behalf of its client, the Government of Uganda, and regulates the banking sector. BoU prints the currency, manages foreign exchange reserves and is responsible for stability of the national currency. It collects a myriad of economic data: production, price indices and so on.

The Central Bank’s role carries other responsibilities like issuing debt on behalf of the government, receipt of government revenue on the Consolidated Fund - funds once received cannot be spent without authorisation of Parliament. There are a number of other classified tasks that BoU carries out within the financial system but these are for another day.

Over the years, other players have vanished from the scene. Flagships under the Ministry of Trade and Industry like the Uganda Development Corporation, Management Training and Advisory Centre are all pale shadows of their former selves. Uganda Development Bank and Uganda Investment Authority would probably reside here but the latter, like many institutions, has succumbed to outright fraud. For sometime, the marketing of coffee and cotton fell under this ministry but this is no more. In some countries, this ministry is the most important ministry.

The Minister of Labour today is lumped with other unrelated dockets: Culture, Gender, Elderly Affairs, Youth and Children. Our Ministry of Labour has not been able to constitute an Industrial Court, the last appointee ran away from the job to the High Court. Long a cash cow for the cash-starved ministry, removing NSSF from the Labour docket cemented its decline as a ministry. The Cabinet ministers posted here are sent to “relax” after a bad day in the political mainstream.

Therefore, when systems fail at BoU and the Ministry of Finance, the risks to the wider economy are much greater. Warehousing so many functions under one roof is a great hazard when fire breaks out. That opinion described the failure of great proportions in the Office of the Prime Minister, home to 17 departments and policy functions hived off other ministries.

When either unit makes a bad judgment call, the risks are great. In the case of the Central Bank, abetting the financial profligacy of its client, the government, has wreaked its reputation. People need to believe in the Central Bank. By abetting abuses of the national vault, the Central Bank can lead to the collapse of the economy in hours if not minutes.

In the face of runaway inflation last year, BoU took its big stick and whacked the backs of thousands of ordinary borrowers whose shilling denominated loans ran through the roof causing widespread business failures.

At the Ministry of Finance, the obsession with micro-management continues to rear its head. The Ministry controls the government payroll. You would think there would be an excuse to house this function at Public Service, which kept pensions but does not manage core payroll. Cash management tools mean most of government runs like an ATM.

The ministry for sometime published quarterly releases as a political tool to foster accountability until the releases became so irregular it was risky to publish them. In any case as we now know, insiders have gotten the better of the system using sophisticated tools to control keys to the vault.

The Ministry of Finance is not entirely to blame. This design is a favourite donor design. Starve the body parts in order to keep the brains supple. In emergency medicine, brain-induced comas are supposed to help the rest of the body heal while limiting the brain function. In Uganda, we have the reverse; the brain is so busy it has run itself into a jam.

Our financial mismanagement syllabus is written into law and unless it is arrested soon, will have even more serious consequences for this fragile economy.

Mr Ssemogerere, an attorney and social entrepreneur, practises law in New York.
kssemoge@gmail.com

After Nantaba, the general public is wise to be on notice that nothing useful remains in the definition and expectation of a cabinet minister. After all an ex-con Nasser Sebaggala also once made it on the list.

The last fortnight has seen Parliament locking horns with the Executive branch over decision making in the petroleum sector. The proceedings on the floor of Parliament show how far relations and trust between the two branches of government have deteriorated.

Members of Parliament elected on the ruling party ticket and the smattering of opposition MPs are reluctant to leave unfettered decision making power in the hands of the President through his appointee, the Minister for Energy.

It is unfortunate that this relatively principled position to delegate full competence over the sector to a specialised agency- the Petroleum Authority is being opposed by the President and his cabinet.

Administrative delegation over highly specialised and technical matters is the reason we have NEMA, Civil Aviation Authority, Uganda Revenue Authority and the Uganda National Roads Authority. Granted these agencies are treated as “parallel” ministries because they don’t enjoy independence, or rule making power and their ability to levy sanctions is also very limited.

The appointment and firing of agency officials has become so politicised that many times the most “suitable” candidate to hold the job may not always be the most capable or qualified. I am not a fan of parallel government. These authorities are justified by a breakdown of any schism of competence in core government departments.

If you have read the full dossier on the Office of the Prime Minister or the Ministry of Public Service, the President’s own conduct especially in recent times sometimes suggests that the nation’s own principal law enforcement official is now routinely weakening, breaking and impeding the orderly enforcement of the laws of this Republic.

In the matter of the controversial appointment of Aidah Nantaba as Minister responsible for Lands, he rode roughshod over Parliament to violate its own rules of Procedure forcing the Appointments Committee to sit a second time in a matter over which they had already rendered a decision rather than appealing to the whole House.

In the matter of compensation of Hassan Basajjabalaba he “barked” directives at Officers of State led by the Attorney General, Minister of Finance and the Governor of Bank of Uganda to pay Shs69 billion to a single entity shortly before the 2011 elections and another Shs12 billion to Col Mugenyi in dubious compensation claims over the sale of markets in the city.

Many of these judgment calls have created a standstill or paralysis in decision making.
This environment of paralysis has driven some institutions to a frozen state like the Judiciary where appointees have to allocate time between doing their job and making a living wage outside the Judiciary.

It would be impossible, for example, to expect to find Chief Justice Willy Mutunga of Kenya moonlighting overseas a privately paid arbitrator. The same would apply to Judges happily working second jobs as state appointed commissars. One just returned from a hiatus investigating corruption in UPE.

There was once a Judge of the High Court who routinely appeared to revalidate his pension and head off to the next moonlighting job and so on. Where decision making would benefit, from institutional guidance the President is unlikely to acquiesce. Infact, one would have empathised with his latest roadside declaration promising to fire RDCs, DISOs for acts of vandalism.

The recently completed Kabale-Kisoro-Bunagana road has fallen victim of perps uprooting signs and sending them to Uganda’s “fast-growing” steel rolling industry. In the old days we would clap our hands at this important directive.

Vandalism is very common on major highways in many countries. Thika highway, Kenya’s symbol of progress into the 2nd world is facing the same problem. Typically speaking, this is a problem that a junior bureaucrat overseeing the road fully empowered and with the right contract should be able to manage. It does not rise to the level of a presidential directive.

No one would expect President Kibaki, Prime Minister Cameron or another global leader to descend to such a level of micromanagement- road signs -something that can be resolved in a meeting of three people.

After Nantaba the general public is wise to be on notice that nothing useful remains in the definition and expectation of a cabinet minister. After all an ex-con Nasser Sebaggala also once made it on the list.

The nonstop exchanges on the street between the unarmed population and the government will be forced to give way to traditional armed conflict.

First, the honeymoon begins for Gen Gregory Mugisha Muntu the new FDC president for his hard fought victory to become the second president of FDC. This is a major development for Uganda’s largest opposition political party putting more pressure on the ruling NRM party to change guard ahead of 2016.
Muntu’s victory also makes it likely that he, not FDC’s outgoing president, Col Kizza Besigye, will lead his troops into the next election.

It may sound strange but in 2011 FDC’s dismal performance at the polls was self-inflicted by running the bait and allowing Dr Besigye into a record third consecutive election against President Museveni.
There may have been some strategic reasons for this but this denied the opposition its biggest ticket against the life presidency project and by the time the wise sages woke up to this, the project had already advanced into at least two default positions outside the scope of this column.

The fast rising Nathan Nandala Mafabi, a former official of the Ministry of Finance, lives to fight another day and can concentrate on keeping the opposition alive in Parliament. It is no irony that with a choice of a soldier and a civilian, FDC representatives chose a retired General. This is a sad commentary on Uganda’s troubled past.

Military affairs are likely to return as a major political issue in the next few years. The peacetime budget has left UPDF with an identity crisis. Its three piece budget, one piece for salaries, another piece for establishments and the other for ammunitions, has left the traditional army falling far behind in what it needs to remain an agile fighting force.

For all the dress and pomp at ceremonies, you only need to visit historical military installations like Bombo, Makindye and Aloi to understand the state of disrepair in which the UPDF is. The chopper tragedy earlier this year exposed another state of dysfunctionality at the decision making level.

The political-military, however, continues to thrive. Even though Aronda Nyakairima labours under the image that he is all but fired, the rapid rise of the presidential elite group SFG into modern statecraft is notable.

A report by the Independent weekly newsmagazine last week, surrounding the arrest of officials of the Ministry of Public Service, had an eye popping detail that the Inspector General of Police, himself an army General Kale Kayihura, sought indirect permission of SFG or their ‘no objection’ prior to raiding homes and properties belonging to the alleged linchpins of the financial loss.

The political military is alive again in the region- Uganda and part time friend, part time enemy Rwanda are accused of supporting the M23 troops in the DRC. Of course it is easy to ignore the fact that the DRC political system is part time party, part time state and efforts to keep Africa’s largest country united may this time decisively fall apart. The DRC, it seems, will never be able to coherently re-establish a figment of unified control, in the face of the embarrassment of riches within its orders.

The DRC has more oil reserves than all the other East African countries combined. Gold, silver, timber are all attractive to its famished neighbours. It is ironical that Uganda in anger or embarrassment, rushed to the UN threatening to leave Somalia whose command has now rotated to the Kenyans shortly before Goma fell .
Muntu, a handpicked army General, is likely to be able to offer his military background on these issues of the day in a way that the other opponents of President Museveni may not. It sounds very medieval, that 2013 will be dominated by wars of conquest and treasure.

Recent developments in the relationship between Uganda and foreign donors almost dictate this. Survival mode limits political debate. The nonstop exchanges on the street between the unarmed population and the government will be forced to give way to the traditional armed conflict.

FDC’s raincheck is a calculated bow to this reality. It sounds very cynical but understandable again.
Muntu will have a tall order establishing himself as a credible voice in all other areas as a national leader.

Mr Ssemogerere, an attorney and social entrepreneur, practises law in New York.
kssemoge@gmail.com

A less informed view would say the Saitotis by all means were a loving family and have raised him as well as his biological parents would have; and that the Subukia’s should celebrate their birth son’s good fortune.

Sometimes, we have to give our tired eyebrows a break. The mess in the Office of the Prime Minister only seems to grow bigger with each coming day. The Minister for Karamoja Janet Museveni appealed to the heavens to take care of the NTV ‘scoundrels’ who jumped with glee at news that associated her with a record nine trips to Israel in one month. Her response perhaps avoided the biggest question; if she did not travel, who traveled in her name? Where is Mr Obbo, the cashier who drew the money on her account? And if so, did he have independent authority to requisition for travel on behalf of a cabinet minister? Is this regular?

But God has a way of supervising our deeds, good and bad. The story next door is heart breaking for all involved; the alleged kidnap of Mr Zachary Musengi, raised for 25 years as former Vice President George Saitoti’s son. If you travel regularly to Kenya the rumor on the street is that the death of Mr Saitoti and his colleague Joshua Orwa Ojode in a chopper crash was not a ‘blameless’ accident. So far, the Judicial Commission of Inquiry headed by a court of appeal justice has not landed on the smoking gun but has poked holes in the ‘blameless’ accident theory.

Mr. Saitoti and Mr. Orwa Ojode shared a familial detail. Both of them had an adopted son. Both highly successful and over-achieving individuals adopted a child to raise in their homes. Childbearing is almost treated as God-given in african culture. Some subjects like male impotence are almost taboo. Barenness is treated like a curse even though medical reasons and emergencies help explain why many women cannot give birth the natural way.

For the young Mr Musengi however, the news from a humble Subukia family that he is one of their own is the equivalent to being hit with two blocks on his head at the same time. First is the anguish he must be going through mourning the death of his father. The late Saitoti was more than a passing figure in Kenya’s politics.

Mostly unloved because of the Goldenberg scandal that nearly brought down Moi’s government and bankrupted the economy he was an ‘essential’ flagpost in Kenya’s politics. Infact, the death of both security ministers at the same time could almost be treated as an attempted coup d’état if you equate to the power of the Kenyan Ministry of Internal Security and Provincial Administration.

Some people would say why are the Subukias showing up so late when they had an entire lifetime to look for their son? Their record keeping is almost meticulous yet the system failed and lied to them. We know of many families who live through the anguish of trying to find the fate of their beloved ones for an entire lifetime unsuccessfully. There is a deeper question in one of the economic and social systems we have assembled. Probably, through his lifetime; he wielded so much power that the official or internal lead in the system could never dare to cross the system to reach out to the Subukias.

A less informed view would says the Saitotis by all means were a loving family and have raised him as well as his biological parents would have; and that the Subukias should celebrate their birth son’s good fortune.

Adoptive parents are more often than not parents of means. Adoption is rarely for the financially vulnerable. This misses the point, the Nation’s thoughtful story show that the Subukias have raised well the rest of their children to university education and beyond, but all along mourning the loss of their middle son.

But this mismatch of means and despair to be a parent sometimes pushes despair to criminal conduct. From the little the rest of the public knows, the Saitotis were the church going type, religious and many prayers have been said since his demise for the repose of his soul. Was the late old Professor a child kidnapper? Does this story hold true?

For Mr. Musengi, with the guilt of an only child aside, how does he face the only mother he knew as a potential felon? This only leads to a deeper conspiracy theory.

Have the internal forces behind one of the groups that were eager to see Saitoti gone but are uncomfortable with the pressure his family is exerting through the current inquiries into his death, unleashed with their deepest and most hurtful card to shut them up?

These start to look less like random coincidences. Kenya like most former British colonies does not have a statute of limitations in criminal matters, the United States as an exception does. A DNA test may as well prove that the Subukia’s child is theirs but does not conclusively pinpoint who was responsible for kidnapping him.

Goldenberg ended inconclusively. Now Kenyans have these two capital crimes to resolve, the alleged murder of Saitoti, and the alleged kidnap of Master Subukia.

Mr Ssemogerere, an attorney and social entrepreneur, practises law in New York.
kssemoge@gmail.com

As the pages unfold and people aspire to the new heights, everyone, including the donors, will need strong heart medication.

Last week, courtesy of Hurricane Sandy, I happened to be a guest of the British people. The British press has an edge to it but sometimes a depth to it as well. News of the World from the Rupert Murdoch is gone but the Daily Mail, associated with conservative causes, remains. Last Wednesday it delivered two screaming headlines: the first one about foreign aid going to the cronies of the Ugandan Prime Minister.

Of course, this is misleading. None of PM Amama Mbabazi’s homeboys is directly associated with benefitting from this loot. Ugandans already have enough details about the OPM scandal; there is little to add apart from the saying that deadly graft exposes have left even Kampala’s most ardent defenders with little to say - even though this newspaper is published in the vicinity of ‘lobbying firms’ retained by Kampala to polish Uganda’s image abroad.

The second headline was more damaging. It accuses the Prime Minister of living a life of pomp in a country that still routinely begs for foreign aid to deliver services to its poorest citizens. Another old story about kickbacks in the oil deals is mentioned. The first story repeats a list of perceived slights and could have as well been written with the help of the foreign office. It mentions the 30 million Pounds Gulfstream jet purchased by “Uganda’s-67-year old ‘autocratic’ ruler who has launched a nonstop crackdown against democracy campaigners”. Everyone knows that the ruling Conservative Party is close to two of Uganda’s opposition parties; FDC and DP.

The Daily Mail is a tabloid and references to it stop there, but the weight of the story cannot go away. In one week - after the Irish threw in the towel, the British and Norwegians are suspending aid to the Office of the Prime Minister. For most of these countries, especially the EU members, there are already scores of other good reasons. The EU is down on money, members are divided on new financial supports to its budget.

There are domestic concerns. In Britain, there is concern that the international development budget has grown too fast even during a period of austere budget cuts.
The Daily Mail scratches around the theme of the luxury and pomp we have accustomed our leaders to that does not match our country’s resources. With the exception of Joyce Banda, the Malawian President who some observers may call naïve for deliberately trimming the accessories of her office, the colonial hangover of a “feel important-colonial overlord” or the “imperial rule” is a deeper cancer than what we let on publicly.

We are not necessarily rooting for our offspring to become the next Alexander Bell or Steve Jobs or the Wright Brothers but rather to end up with developed drawings close to our State House - an architectural feat by itself. The sense of numbness has been exploited by the President who now meritoriously dumps on the population scores of dubious, improper and unqualified presidential appointees with little or no review or relief from the electorate.

Our beloved donors, of course, have been around for some time during all these developments. They pay for the most essential functions of government, the justice, law and order sector, etc., to allow the police free rein to clamp down on the so-called democracy campaigners. That programme to transform northern Uganda from its war-torn past keeps them close enough to observe developments in the Albertine rich oil region.

But this methodical laziness is about to run course. While we continued to entrench or centralise power, there are hungrier and more deserving cases that have shown promise to do good with such resources. Most of the short-term oil story has run its course. Uganda’s oil still has five more years before reaching full viability and populist causes like 5th term or the now inevitable presidential succession question are likely to make it difficult for the faint-hearted to access this resource.

Nothing makes Mbabazi a sole figure. He has simply been unfortunate to be mentioned every now and again; the regime’s critics reach out for a fig. Nothing is said about Edward Ssekandi, the Vice President, because he has never propositioned himself as a presidential successor. He does not have the palatial homes or mini State Houses that larger mortals below him in the pecking order regularly maintain. Mbabazi’s forays into business and the banking sector have not ended well. The National Bank of Commerce ended up both in court and under Bank of Uganda’s auctioneer’s hammer. The President’s help on this particular subject through a no-objection to the Temangalo transaction shows that the proceeds from this transaction did not necessarily end up going to shore up Temangalo.

The civil servants currently commuting from Luzira to the courts have not done more than simply read from the cues of the book by Mbabazi’s political supervisor: Uganda at 50: Privatised, you are on your own! As the pages unfold and people aspire to the new heights, everyone, including the donors, will need strong heart medication.
Mr Ssemogerere, an attorney and social entrepreneur, practises law in New York.

kssemoge@gmail.com