Gen. Muntu likely to lead FDC into next elections

The nonstop exchanges on the street between the unarmed population and the government will be forced to give way to traditional armed conflict.

First, the honeymoon begins for Gen Gregory Mugisha Muntu the new FDC president for his hard fought victory to become the second president of FDC. This is a major development for Uganda’s largest opposition political party putting more pressure on the ruling NRM party to change guard ahead of 2016.
Muntu’s victory also makes it likely that he, not FDC’s outgoing president, Col Kizza Besigye, will lead his troops into the next election.

It may sound strange but in 2011 FDC’s dismal performance at the polls was self-inflicted by running the bait and allowing Dr Besigye into a record third consecutive election against President Museveni.
There may have been some strategic reasons for this but this denied the opposition its biggest ticket against the life presidency project and by the time the wise sages woke up to this, the project had already advanced into at least two default positions outside the scope of this column.

The fast rising Nathan Nandala Mafabi, a former official of the Ministry of Finance, lives to fight another day and can concentrate on keeping the opposition alive in Parliament. It is no irony that with a choice of a soldier and a civilian, FDC representatives chose a retired General. This is a sad commentary on Uganda’s troubled past.

Military affairs are likely to return as a major political issue in the next few years. The peacetime budget has left UPDF with an identity crisis. Its three piece budget, one piece for salaries, another piece for establishments and the other for ammunitions, has left the traditional army falling far behind in what it needs to remain an agile fighting force.

For all the dress and pomp at ceremonies, you only need to visit historical military installations like Bombo, Makindye and Aloi to understand the state of disrepair in which the UPDF is. The chopper tragedy earlier this year exposed another state of dysfunctionality at the decision making level.

The political-military, however, continues to thrive. Even though Aronda Nyakairima labours under the image that he is all but fired, the rapid rise of the presidential elite group SFG into modern statecraft is notable.

A report by the Independent weekly newsmagazine last week, surrounding the arrest of officials of the Ministry of Public Service, had an eye popping detail that the Inspector General of Police, himself an army General Kale Kayihura, sought indirect permission of SFG or their ‘no objection’ prior to raiding homes and properties belonging to the alleged linchpins of the financial loss.

The political military is alive again in the region- Uganda and part time friend, part time enemy Rwanda are accused of supporting the M23 troops in the DRC. Of course it is easy to ignore the fact that the DRC political system is part time party, part time state and efforts to keep Africa’s largest country united may this time decisively fall apart. The DRC, it seems, will never be able to coherently re-establish a figment of unified control, in the face of the embarrassment of riches within its orders.

The DRC has more oil reserves than all the other East African countries combined. Gold, silver, timber are all attractive to its famished neighbours. It is ironical that Uganda in anger or embarrassment, rushed to the UN threatening to leave Somalia whose command has now rotated to the Kenyans shortly before Goma fell .
Muntu, a handpicked army General, is likely to be able to offer his military background on these issues of the day in a way that the other opponents of President Museveni may not. It sounds very medieval, that 2013 will be dominated by wars of conquest and treasure.

Recent developments in the relationship between Uganda and foreign donors almost dictate this. Survival mode limits political debate. The nonstop exchanges on the street between the unarmed population and the government will be forced to give way to the traditional armed conflict.

FDC’s raincheck is a calculated bow to this reality. It sounds very cynical but understandable again.
Muntu will have a tall order establishing himself as a credible voice in all other areas as a national leader.

Mr Ssemogerere, an attorney and social entrepreneur, practises law in New York.
kssemoge@gmail.com