AU enjoys brief moment of triumph as West adjusts to Trump

US President Donald Trump. Agent Photo

What you need to know:

  • In the West, President Donald Trump hosted his first foreign leader, Theresa May, the British Prime Minister. Both needed this exposure.
  • Donald Trump needed a foreign visitor to cap his first week in office signaling which became even more urgent as his immediate neighbours, Mexico and Canada started to dig in around him.

The African Union summit ended this week with two major victories. First was the election of a new chairperson of the AU Assembly, President Alpha Conde of Guinea. President Conde was instrumental in convincing Yahya Jammeh to leave power in The Gambia arranging for his departure after Senegalese troops holding an Ecowas mandate entered the country. Second was the election of Chadian diplomat Foreign minister Moussa Faki Mahamat as AU Commission Chairperson. Mahamat defeated early favourite, Kenyan Foreign Secretary Amina Mohammed, who garnered as many as 28 votes in the successive rounds before losing out in the final two rounds.
The election of Mahamat capped a long chapter partly of bad blood between the Francophone and English speaking Africa. Jean Ping lost a campaign for re-election before returning to Gabon to unsuccessfully contest for the presidency. Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma is similarly packing her bags to return for a stab at South Africa’s next presidential election. Zuma’s election broke an unwritten convention that kept the big three out of the AU’s top slot; South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria. Measured by size of economy, East Africa does not have a similarly situated economy but Kenya at $55 billion GDP is about one third of Nigeria’s economy.
When Jean Ping left, the Francophone felt it was their turn to offer a candidate for what would have been their second term. So when Zuma left early, the same group felt they should claim what was theirs. The euphoria from the bloodless Ecowas backed intervention may have swayed a number of countries into their arms. Kenya has won major plaudits for regional diplomatic victories and credit went to the foreign minister. But Kenya has also found itself unnecessarily distracted by the debate to leave the ICC a favourite of the European funders of the ICC. Back home, Ms Mohammed may be an asset in what is likely to be a tough period leading to and immediately after the August 2017 general elections.
In the West, President Donald Trump hosted his first foreign leader, Theresa May, the British Prime Minister. Both needed this exposure. Ms May has had a rough few weeks after the Supreme Court overruled her quest to use a royal prerogative to invoke Article 50 commencing the two year process for Britain to exit the EU. In a narrowly divided Parliament, the Bill to invoke Article 50 may end up with the demise of her government. She is still in power because her major opponents Labour and the Scottish Nationalists will end up worse under most scenarios including redistricting which will shrink the House of Commons by 50 seats.
Donald Trump needed a foreign visitor to cap his first week in office signaling which became even more urgent as his immediate neighbours, Mexico and Canada started to dig in around him. First the Mexican President Enrique Pena cancelled his trip to Washington after Trump repeated remarks that Mexico would pay for Trump’s proposed southern wall through a 20 per cent levy on Mexican imports. Second, Trump’s announcement that the Dakota access pipeline will go ahead created a political problem for Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The pipeline passes through Alberta a state controlled by the opposition Conservatives rattled by a bad oil economy. Construction of the pipeline wins him few new votes but leaves him at risk of upsetting his domestic coalition concentrated in the east and the coasts.
Mexico and Canada are already in receipt of a notice from Trump of his intention to renegotiate NAFTA on the back of a resounding America first speech at the inauguration January 20. Trump’s biggest news however came at the weekend with a 100 per cent ban on travellers from seven Middle Eastern countries. He followed up with a 120 days suspension of admission of any refugees potentially setting a breach of the Geneva Convention on Refugees. The High Command takes it powers very personally. Trump set the first loyalty test by firing Obama holdover, Acting Attorney General Sally Yates. For once Africa looked good, indeed much better than the West.
Mr Ssemogerere is an Attorney-at-Law and an Advocate. [email protected]