Kenyan election likely to add stress to fragile domestic economy

In eight months time, the battle of the titans will feature Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga in the Kenyan general election. Mr Kenyatta will be running for a second and final term and Mr Odinga will be running for a record fifth time having run in each presidential election since 1992 save for 2002 when he carried the torch for Mwai Kibaki who was the NARC flagbearer.

Many things have happened in the last 10 years. In 2007, Kenya came to the brink after rigged elections ended in ethnic massacres and a number of Kenyans were referred to the International Criminal Court in the Hague including Mr Kenyatta and his vice president Mr Ruto. None of the six Kenyans was convicted. Infact three were let off the hook for absence of incriminating evidence. It was only Mr Ruto who faced any substantial proceedings of any sort.
Kenya then and now has marked a number of strides moving from the group of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to middle income countries. Kenya’s economic growth has slowed a bit. Tanzania is now the region’s blazing star, having woken up from the slumber of two decades with a new president picked outside the line of succession, John Magufuli.

Kenya has slowed down vulnerable to global economic cycles but also domestic corruption scandals in both the public and the private sector have taken some of the shine off of Jubilee. Public sector strikes by teachers and doctors have exposed the fragility of Kenya’s public finances. The sugar belt and coffee farmers have been up in arms over mounting debts, agriculture in Kenya is a highly commercialised business.
With the exception of Safaricom, NSE the bourse has had nothing to write home about, with most listed companies in a steady downward drift.
While the core engine seems to be intact, the stories of financial mismanagement at major companies like Kenya Airways have angered many Kenyans. A substantial number of Kenyans are angry. An angry electorate will ensure very high turnover if not at the top it will in the different elected offices in the country. Uganda went through this in 2016 when just 90 MPs were reelected, and another 120 MPs who were elected faced petitions challenging their election.

Being the region’s largest economic player, a lot is expected of Kenya. First is the control of public finances. Kenya’s Eurobond proceeds raised a lot of flags. A slowing economy has seen Kenya miss a number of fiscal targets. The new county form of government has been a major reform speeding up economic development in rural Kenya but the local governors faced a lot of challenges as accounting officers. In recent months, Kenya has moderated the domestic terror threat after a number of changes in the domestic security structure.
Around its neighbours, it has mostly been predictable, in the EAC and other bodies. Even though its superior status provides many temptations, Kenyans have not crossed the borders to interfere in the domestic politics of their neighbours. There is some tension inside the EAC but this is mostly Tanzania suspicious of the Kenyans than vice versa.
Kenya did not engage in retaliatory measures when Tanzania acted to “punish” Kenya in a number of sectors including aviation. The success of Kenya is everyone’s success.

This week Daily Monitor reported that Kenyans now count Uganda as one of their number one tourist destinations driven by hard bargains and a cheap local currency. Kenyans are quietly entering the economy from the bottom in agriculture, tourism, energy and construction and building their way up. The fall from grace to grass of Nakumatt, Uchumi, KQ and the others are another story. These were small people trying to mimic the big boys at home and it ended very badly. We keep watching carefully but don’t expect any major surprises in August.
Mr Ssemogerere is an Attorney-at-Law
and an Advocate. [email protected]