President Trump escapes from Mr Mueller’s noose

It’s June 2018, the one year anniversary of the appointment of Special Counsel into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 US General Election. Donald Trump entered the White House besting former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton in the Electoral College.
The last 18 months have been anything but a conventional presidency. The president has fired three cabinet secretaries, a White House Chief of Staff, two national security advisers and weathered a bruising investigation of his 2016 campaign, specifically receipt of Russian, which paid for campaign messaging and whether there was a quid pro-quo in exchange for this support.

In the last one year, Mr Trump has been felt on the international scene, turning down a State visit to the United Kingdom, withdrawing the US from the Paris climate accords, the Iran nuclear arms deal and now making a big foray for normalisation of ties with North Korea.
Congress is in Republican hands, a plus for Mr Trump, but up to a certain point. In the Senate, many measures have stalled due to the narrow 50-49 majority held by Republicans. In fact, the Republicans have backed down from their most draconian measures like the repeal of Obamacare, which provides coverage for poorer Americans, who can’t afford health insurance on their own. The economy is responding nimbly to this gridlock.

A tax-cut and amnesty last year that allows corporations to repatriate profits back home have kept economic growth modest, but steady at about 3 per cent. Unemployment is at an all-time low of 4 per cent although this number doesn’t record persons in long-term unemployment or those receiving long-term federal benefits like disability pay.
The stock market soared under Trump’s first year, but has been dampened by rising interest rates, which have shored up the US dollar’s position relative to other currencies. Trump’s America first campaign has not yet translated into an economic boom even though some companies like Apple, America’s most profitable company, have announced some half measures to create new jobs.

The Democrats away from their sharp rhetoric last year, are starting to look at the electoral board for the mid-terms. After losing four by-elections to the House of Representatives, they picked up a seat in Pennsylvania and a surprise Senate Seat in Alabama, where they expect to pick up more seats in November. They also expect to clear a few more seats in California, the largest state, but few elsewhere.
In the upper chamber, a few seats will change hands from one party to another but control is likely to remain in Republican hands.

The national landscape has been waiting for a messianic figure like Obama emerged in 2008 complicating fortunes for the Democrats. Older Americans key to Clinton and Obama’s White House victories in 1992 and 2008 and the major beneficiaries of the social policies favoured by Democrats, have switched to voting reliably Republican by a wide margin. The older whiter states where populations have shrunk, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan all went for Mr Trump in 2016. It is likely these will soon be joined by Minnesota and Maine.
Of the big three states, California, Texas and Florida, the Democrats hold tight control of California, but have failed to nail Florida. Fears of a Republican apocalypse in Texas are yet to materialise even though Democrats are expected to vastly improve on their previous 2016 performance.

In all of this, Mr Mueller is hardly expected to prosecute a major case of collusion. He has successfully pointed out the crooked ways of quite a large number of people, but their behaviour in today’s standards is expected. Accusing Mr Trump of repeatedly lying has been a “non-play” compared to Clinton. With Mr Trump, the truth is not what he is all about, and he didn’t come to office campaigning on returning integrity to the White House. It went out with the infamous dress two decades ago.
Mr Ssemogerere is an Attorney-at-Law and an Advocate. [email protected]