Uhuru concedes late in extra time, it is now Raila’s game to lose
It was as dramatic as a tense football game. When the Supreme Court of Kenya nullified the 2017 presidential election on September 1, it surprised even the hitherto reluctant skeptical petitioner, Raila Amolo Odinga of the National Supreme Alliance (NASA), who had lost to Uhuru Kenyatta of the Jubilee Party.
Raila went to court dragging his feet and grumbling about how it would be unfair for ‘only’ seven people (Supreme Court Judges) to decide the will of millions of people. Well six people sat on the bench and ‘only’ four agreed with Raila and overturned the result. You cannot blame Raila and the skeptics. Cancelling presidential election outcomes is a rarity. The few annulments we know of include Ukraine (2004), Maldives (2014) and Austria (2016).
For Raila, a four time presidential election loser, the re-run will be his election to lose.
First the ruling of the judges has removed the aura of invincibility, total influence and control that people perceive a sitting president in Kenya possesses.
Many of the disgruntled people who do not turn up to vote are usually motivated by the notion that the will of the sitting president always prevails because of his unquestionable authority. So they do not ‘waste’ time.
Now Uhuru has blinked and has been exposed.
He is like the unbeaten Invincible Mike Tyson after he lost to James Buster Douglas on February 11, 1990 in Tokyo Japan. From that knockout onwards, Tyson looked ordinary, beatable and indeed all his other five losses came after that.
Uhuru did not do himself any favours with his native ranting about how the Judiciary ‘must be sorted out.’ It was a sign of weakness and not strength. He was admitting that the illusion of control was indeed just that. (You can be sure there are many questions lingering in the minds of Kenyans as to whether Uhuru actually controls the army, police and civil service as is perceived. This may influence scores of voters to vote for Raila.)
The show of weakness plays in the hands of opponent Raila. It gives him the momentum while Uhuru is on the back foot screaming and kicking like a sour loser.
In politics and human nature, favour tends to gravitate towards the one who has succeeded lately.
The one who succeeded earlier is forgotten. That is what motivates opportunists and turncoats and makes them think of a future with the ‘other side.’
In the African setting in which Kenya finds itself, during elections, many government workers behave like members of the ruling party and by hook or crook, work towards maintaining the status quo – to keep their jobs.
Now with the fluid situation in Kenya, there must be scores of people, especially in government, hedging their bets. You can be sure that in the re-run, many will be cautious not to be seen on the side of the ruling party, just in case. That support one gets that advantages the ruling party is likely to be lacking in totality this time round and that will be a disservice to the ruling Jubilee Party.
The Independent Boundaries and Elections Commission (IBEC), has been totally exposed. To rig this time round will be a mountain to climb for all the escape routes (the relaying of results, unsigned form 34As and 34bs were laid bare in the evidence adduced by NASA. If Jubilee won because of such loopholes, then their goose is cooked.
Secondly, the conduct of the Kenyan government immediately after the elections may work against Uhuru.
They literally fought civil society, protesters and anyone perceived as not agreeable to their win.
In parliament, they have put pressure on the legislators, who are just fresh from one of the most expensive election in Kenyan history, to take a pay cut. All this amounts to lost good will. Many will come out to campaign against Jubilee not exactly because they love NASA, but because of the ‘threat’ that Jubilee’s actions have placed on their existence and survival. Then there is the boldness of the media after the Supreme Court ruling. Remember before September 1, the media was in the spot light for being slanted towards Jubilee; cautious and uncritical in its reporting. Now is the time for the media to redeem itself. Already, the stories in the papers are bolder. Reporting especially malpractices will likely limit the leg-room for the ruling party to act as it pleases.
The history of Kenya’s severely tribal politics that has seen power oscillating in the hands of two tribes is another interesting factor. The man at the helm pads the entire system with home boys and girls thus denying opportunities to percolate and spread out far and wide. This is the bane of tribal politics.
The Gikuyu (Jomo Kenyatta 1963-78, Mwai Kibaki, 2002-2013, Uhuru Kenyatta 2013-2017 and the Kalenjin, Daniel arap Moi, 1978-2002) have been at the helm for the entire 54 years of ndependence.) There is a ‘fear’ that should Kenyatta have a second term he is most likely to work towards handing over power to his current Vice President William Ruto who is a Kalenjin.
The ruling which has put Uhuru on the back foot is like a window of opportunity. This is the chance for those who would want to interfere with this historical monopoly of power. It is the time to make it ‘the turn of others to eat’ if we may paraphrase the title of Michella Wrong’s great book on Kenya’s politics. It is Odinga’s election to lose.
Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political
and social issues. [email protected]
Twitter: @nsengoba
