30 years after the fall of Amin, causes of 1979 war revealed

Leading exile groups like Kikosi Maalum (meaning “Special Force” in Swahili) which were loyal to Obote and FRONASA under a guerrilla named Yoweri Museveni were in a period of decline or stagnation.

In Tanzania, many people asked Mr Museveni why he was so determined to fight Amin and yet none of his relatives had been killed by Amin’s regime. Prominent exiles in America and Europe raised money ostensibly to fight Amin but embezzled it, much to the disgust of Ugandans at home and in exile.

Given these circumstances, there is no reason to believe Amin faced deep resentment from an army or civilian population that he treated well, so contrary to the widespread image of Amin as a leader and person.

It therefore seems unlikely that Obote and others who have attempted to explain the start of the 1978-79 war gave their readers a broad and impartial assessment of the conditions in Uganda in 1978.

So if this is not what sparked off the war, what did?
The first reports of activity around the Uganda-Tanzania border area of Mutukula came in July 1978.

The Standard newspaper of Tanzania, in its July 3, 1978 edition quoted the commander general of the Western Brigade, General Yusuf Himidi, as saying that Uganda had been involved in acts that could lead to military confrontation. Gen. Himidi made the comments on July 1, 1978 at Mutukula in Tanzania.

Apparently, there were acts of violence against Tanzanian civilians in the area by people who were either Ugandan or appeared to come from Uganda.

According to information that this writer has recently obtained, the first provocation appears to have come from the Tanzania side of the border.

One of the Uganda Army’s senior officers, Lt. Col. Juma Ali (“Butabika”) Rokoni, Commanding Officer of the Malire Specialist Reconnaissance Regiment, was married to a Ugandan woman from the Baziba tribe that lives in the Mutukula side of the Tanzanian and Ugandan borders.

In late 1978, units of the Malire regiment and Bugolobi-based Uganda Marines (nicknamed “Madoi Doi”) were deployed near the Mutukula border area to maintain a deterrent against invaders from Tanzania.

According to the World Book Encyclopedia Yearbook, 1979, “Uganda’s President Idi Amin Dada charged that Tanzania used the territory to infiltrate revolutionary guerrillas into Uganda.”

Who might these Ugandan “revolutionary guerrillas” be, based in Kagera and provoking Uganda?
Although it is not absolutely certain, some helpful light is shed on this by the former guerrilla, Yoweri Museveni, on page 62 of his 1997 book Sowing the Mustard Seed: The struggle for freedom and democracy in Uganda: “The part of Tanzania on the north side of the river is known as the Kagera Salient and that is where we were operating from.”

In his own words, Mr Museveni states that his FRONASA guerrillas were “operating from” Kagera. Might these be the revolutionary guerrillas that Amin referred to, who were staging acts intended to provoke Tanzania and Uganda into war?
Sometime in late 1978, four Ugandans drinking a local beer called malwa had been shot dead for no apparent reason in Mutukula.

Lt. Col. Juma Ali’s brother-in-law was shot dead probably in October, once again by unknown gunmen from Tanzania.
Being the decisive and somewhat erratic person he was said to be, Lt. Col. Ali sent Malire troops into Tanzania to apprehend the gunmen who were provoking the Ugandan troops near the border in the 1,840 square kilometre part of northwest Tanzania known as the Kagera Salient. The Malire troops went about 80 kilometres into Kagera.

A Ugandan newspaper at the time, the Uganda Weekly News, reported on November 5, 1978 that Tanzanian troops attacked Uganda from October 10-31, 1978 and captured 400 square miles of Ugandan territory. Clashes between Ugandan and Tanzanian troops took place near Munziro Hill.