UGANDA'S FLAWED ELECTIONS: NRM in UPC’s 1980 advantage, how candidates fared in the poll

The last multiparty general election, described in Daily Monitor’s last four issues, was held 25 years ago. It was the last time parties went out to vie openly for power. The four parties that contested in 1980 are still very much around.

Though three of the 1980 parties, DP, UPC and UPM (now NRM) are still the dominant parties, their share of influence has proportionately changed. Even after splitting into two, Forum for Democratic Change and National Resistance Movement Organisation, the remainder of UPM, arguably the NRM, could rightly be described as the most powerful party among those getting ready for the 2006 elections.

Of course it is the final whistle that will officially determine the winner of the March 2006 polls. But since 1980 is the only last record of multiparty contest in Uganda, it is important to see how the people voted last time in the various parts of Uganda.
While the population is still very much the same in most areas, there have been administrative changes. But every politicians and interested Ugandan can identify their constituency today in the 1980 electoral divisions.

The NRM today controls government, up from the poor third position UPM had in 1980. Does it also dominate most of the constituencies? That is what the March 2006 will determine. Does FDC enjoy much if any support in the countryside? Again that is what March 2006 will tell. Can the UPC get as many parliamentary seats (proportionately) as it did in 1908? How much can UPC achieve without the state apparatus to help it out? Will the DP take the whole or most of Buganda again?

The new structure of parliament has a large number, almost a third, of special interest groups seats. Will all of these go to the NRM, as is expected? If they do, any other party standing a chance of winning the election would be just in theory. For in reality, NRM will only need to fight for a quarter of the remaining seats to win. On the other hand, any other party will need to take three quarters of the normal constituencies to win the elections.

Can DP, UPC, FDC or a combination of them all win three quarters of the normal (county) constituencies? The NRM today enjoys the head start which the UPC did in 1980 when it grabbed 17 seats unopposed before the polls. The difference is that today, it is the structure of parliament, which has evolved over the years, hat puts NRM at advantage. In theory, all the parties are equal. But in reality, it is not likely that any party other than the NRM can take even ten percent of the special interest groups like women, youth, army.

The major loopholes of 1980 were demarcation of constituencies, nomination of candidates and compilation of the voters’ register. Of these, nomination was the most fatal for the losers, and to a lesser extent demarcation of the electoral divisions. This time round, demarcation and nomination are not likely to be a problem, even a minor one. The most feared issue by the (supposedly) weaker parties is the voters’ register.

The register is supposed to be much more advanced than the one of 1980, since today’s is an electronic one. But the first computer lesson anyone gets says, Garbage in Garbage Out (GIGO).

An electronic register is only as good as the will of the people who compile it. A computer on its own cannot make a good or even bad register. Over the last ten years, the number of voters in the Electoral Commission Computers has varied between eight and twelve million. So at the worst of times, the discrepancy has been 50 percent!

Today, the EC’s register is said to have been cleaned up and now has 8.5m voters. How many ore will be registered in the remaining one month of updating it? Suppose the CP develops evil intentions and capacity to get some three million ghost voters onto the register in the remaining time, won’t it then also print an extra three million ballots and stuff them? That is the scenario some parties are worried about.

Given the voter apathy, chances are that maybe only six million people will turn up to vote and if the CP has a head start of three million stuffed ballots out of the nine million cast, it would only need another 1.5m genuine ballots to win.