Besigye and the crowds: Is it the unfinished revolution?

KAMPALA:

The overflow crowds that turn up at Dr Kizza Besigye’s campaign rallies these days are a testament to not only his undying popularity, the promotional abilities of his team of like-minded interests, but also a reflection of something of another kind ­— the unfinished revolution.

Everywhere he goes starting right from his hometown of Kasangati, fans have been coming out in their thousands to hear him speak. Some say the crowds look for him. Others, like the police, usually block his activities claiming he looks for the crowds to cause chaos.

Not many politicians, including President Museveni, puts on a show like Besigye does. Many times, in fact, police intervenes to stop the people from gathering in big numbers.

Last month on July 21, it went to the extreme when a Jinja radio station owned by an NRM politician, Baba FM, went off air for about 15 minutes during the airing of a paid talk show on which Besigye was hosted. Whether the transmission signals were interrupted or it was a case of technical glitch, there was no conclusive explanation of the incident.

Earlier that day, the three-time presidential candidate and former physician of President Museveni during the 1980-86 bush war, had addressed a mammoth crowd at a campaign rally in Jinja Town. Pictures from that rally were all over social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter.

The following day in Iganga, an even bigger crowd turned out and introced the new practice of fundraising money for his ongoing consultation tours in the contest to be FDC flag bearer in the 2016 polls. The party will convene a delegates conference on September 2 and the winner will then go to the next round of choosing from the Opposition coalition­ — The Democratic Alliance (TDA).

Name any place and invite Besigye there; from Kampala to Gulu, Masaka to Agago, and Arua to Mbarara, the story of his crowds is largely unchanged. The audience, a combination of usually the youth, old and women, always noticeably elated.
Some carry his posters; others wear T-shirts or carry anything blue (the colour of FDC) chanting all sorts of slogans. And lately with the social media bug, everything is seen in real time and campaign photos shared multiple times.

How does he do it?
A retired Colonel, Dr Besigye fell out with his former boss in 1999 after authoring a hard-hitting critique accusing the NRM government of derailing from the objectives that in the first place took them to the bush to start war against President Apollo Milton Obote’s government.

In the book, Kizza Besigye; And Uganda’s Unfinished Revolution journalist and author, Daniel Kalinaki, argues that his falling out with the NRM had started with what he and others saw as an attempt to turn a transitional, “broad-based” and inclusive government into a permanent, tightly controlled regime protected from competition under the guise of a no-party political system.

His sufferings from this point as the book chronicles, notably forced exile, trumped up treason and rape charges, repeated beatings and tear-gassing by the police, harassment by the security forces have catapulted him into a political celebrity, an opposition darling, and more especially as more and more bush war contemporaries continue falling out of the NRM paradise, as a rallying point for regime opponents.
In 2001, he ran against Museveni under the “Reform Agenda” and later in 2006 and 2011 under FDC, now the largest Opposition party.

One of those who work closely with him, Ms Doreen Nyanjura, a coordinator of the National Association of the Unemployed (NAU), a youth group known for civil disobedience, says there is no single formula to explain “how Besigye” does it.
“I have walked with him a number of times but within a few minutes you equally get shocked at how people leave behind whatever they are doing to join him,” she says. “It seems like a natural connection.”

Part of the reason, she says, is because “KB” as his name is often abridged, identifies with the common man. “He is not much into elitist politics –of a politician being so high up in the sky. He mostly identifies with the problems of the common man that is why they find his character exceptional.”

This is what, she adds, acts as the “political magnet.”
The other reason perhaps, Nyanjura says, Besigye is a commander who leads from the front. “If he can rally people in the struggle and does not opt out, certainly people will stand with him.”

This “political magnet” was particularly evident during the 2011 “Walk to Work” protests that shook Kampala and many parts of the country, starting off as peaceful but later turned bloody when the regime unleashed armed forces against civilians. At some point government blocked live radio and television broadcasts of the protests to curtain the rest of the country from catching the cough, and even went further to block social media podiums Facebook and Twitter, where people had started rallying for mass protests.

Fast forward to 2015, Besigye, who had earlier said he would not stand again if “political and electoral reforms” are not implemented by government to ensure a level playing field in next year’s polls, continues to consolidate his popularity, stamp his agenda and galvanise the ground in preparation for the electoral battle.

In an earlier interview, Frank Tumwebaze, the Minister for Presidency, said that while Besigye is regarded popular, there is the question: “Why don’t Ugandans buy him if he was right?” The doctor has answered this with the assertion that Mr Museveni stole his election, rigging the election against popular opinion.
The first time he contested in 2001 many regarded him as a reactionary.

Dr Kisekka Ntale, a political researcher previously working with the Makerere Institute of Social Research (MISR), says that is what makes Besigye the “real organic opposition” figure in the country.

“Besides being incorruptible and his charismatic character, he is looked at as one person who broke Museveni’s invincibility,” adding, “He has since gone ahead to create his own character (a character that is not selfish and believes in a cause) unlike many of his colleagues who are copycatting and in that way he is able to have a wider mass appeal.”

And by the fact of that character, Dr Ntale, argues, he draws close support across political, religious and ethnic lines. “Mass support becomes inevitable,” Dr Ntale concludes.
“Besigye also cuts a father-figure that has nurtured a number of credible politicians on which additional appeal and support is built.”

Tororo County MP, Geoffrey Ekanya, who is leading Besigye’s campaign team, says the explanation for ongoing spectacle is his man’s message.

“What explains Besigye’s crowds, I think, is because he is pro-people. He identifies with the tribulations of the common people, unemployment, poverty, inflation, name it,” he says.
“But that makes him more popular both here and outside,” Mr Ekanya adds. “Vote rigging by the NRM system is a well-known story both home and away, but we as Opposition, the solution is the political reforms.”

The former coordinator of intelligence agencies, Gen. David Sejusa, for example, has hinted before that Besigye won the February 23, 2006 vote with a 69 per cent margin. The incumbent, he said, managed only less than 30 percent ballot but using the hand of security machinery, the results were switched.
“Any time an African incumbent president is declared the winner by a 50 per cent margin then you know he’s lost,” Gen. Sejusa noted, in reference to the margin of the win as declared by the Eectoral Commission in 2006.

Eventually, Mr Museveni was declared winner with 59 per cent, followed by Dr Besigye at 37 per cent, DP’s Ssebaana Kizito returned 1.58 per cent, while UPC’s Miria Obote and independent candidate Abed Bwanika each scored below 1 per cent.
“Apart from those who made generic defence statements, did you hear the Electoral Commission or the army come out to clarify on that matter?” asked Mr Wafula Oguttu, the Leader of Opposition.

Both in 2001 and 2006, Besigye unsuccessfully petitioned the Supreme Court for a nullification of results before saying he would not bother with court again in 2011 if he lost.
The same court had, however, agreed with him that the electoral process was marred by irregularities, voter intimidation and rigging, noncompliance with electoral laws and an unverifiable voter’s register.

Court said in a majority decision of 4:3 that “in counting and tallying of results, the principle of free and fair elections was compromised by bribery and intimidation or violence,” but, “the failure to comply with the provisions and principles as found was not proved to have affected the results in a substantial manner.”

Comprising Justices Joseph Mulenga, Alfred Karokora, Arthur Oder, George Kanyeihamba, Wilson Tsekooko, Bart Katureebe and former Chief Justice Benjamin Odoki, the Supreme Court at the time has since been reported to have changed its mind.

After retiring from the Supreme Court bench, Prof. George Kanyeihamba has since gone on the record saying that at a pre-decision conference of the justices convened April 5, 2006, the verdict on consensus was different from what was later delivered the next day, and that his colleagues erred in upholding Mr Museveni’s election even when they conceded that there were electoral irregularities.

Mr Oguttu notes that whatever arguments government advances that Besigye is a ‘loser” it does not take away the fact that he remains the most popular Opposition figure.

In 2006, Besigye contested outside the G6 coalition and in 2011 under the Inter-Party Coalition (IPC). Of the 13,954,129 voters registered by EC, the incumbent harvested 5,442,393 votes and the Opposition got 2,521,820 votes.

Now that political reforms to ensure a levelled playing field seem to have hit a dead end again, five months to the elections, can Besigye’s crowds do magic this time? That is the question.

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