NRM ready to grab Ngora County: Teso’s Opposition stronghold

Dr Francis Epetait has been occupying the seat since 2011. File photo

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Insight. FDC’s Epetait announced he would not contest for the seat, leaving the battle between FDC’s Okurut and NRM’s Ogwel.

NGORA. For two terms in a row, the ruling NRM has been losing its bid for Ngora County constituency to the Opposition Forum for Democratic Change.
Now that the incumbent, Dr Francis Epetait, announced last year that he would not be standing again, the seat is up for grabs.
During the 2006 elections, President Museveni lost to his main opponent, FDC’s Dr Kizza Besigye by 22.62% against 72.9 per cent, respectively across Teso region. In 2011, Mr Museveni picked up to 68.4, against Dr Besigye’s surprising 26.

But despite the general sub-region showing an improvement in the fortunes of the NRM, in Ngora County, it remained a close race with just 1,078 votes between the candidates.
“Considerably, the Opposition is still strong in Ngora. When Dr Besigye visited the district a few months ago, you could see that the fire is just buried in the ash,” Ngora District chairperson, Mr Bernard Eumu, argues.
“Dr Epetait proved to be a candid opposition personality who was very careful with how he dealt with the ruling party’s top leadership. He stood out as a shrewd leader,” said Mr Moses Okalebo, the former Kobwin Sub-county speaker.
Mr Okalebo believes if it was not for Dr Epetait’s good relationship with the ruling party here, they probably would have worked harder to have him out of the constituency.
Dr Epetait in 2001 beat Dr Abraham Isamat, his main rival for the second time in row, with 16,741 against 16,565. At least 51,000 people had registered to vote and 35,265 actually participated in the elections.

For the women category, the NRM party flag bearer, Ms Jacquelyn Amongin won the seat with 16,470 giving her closest opponent, Ms Stella Isodo of FDC a range of 6,670.
Ms Amongin said the development that Ngora has experienced should be consolidated with a block support for the ruling party in the coming elections.
Former Bukedea Resident District Commissioner (RDC) Michael Bwalatum said the NRM party is prepared to take Ngora. “Focus this time has been on service delivery to the common person at the village level so the fight with the Opposition is not going to be an easy one. They should prepare,” Mr Bwalatum said.

Primary elections for both the NRM and FDC in most parts of Teso have been tainted by claims of irregularities resulting in a number of members declaring intentions to stand as independents.
President Museveni has since 2011 indicated on several occasions that an independent task force, comprising mainly former opposition supporters, formed then to help canvas votes for him had done a much better job than his own NRM cadres.’
“Those with selfish intentions should stop. I have many sympathisers from the opposition side, we welcome them and with time we shall link with them,” President Museveni said during the 2011 campaigns.
Led by former Kumi Woman MP Agnes Akiror, the NRM has continued targeting members of the opposition. How this pans out remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, Ngora’s NRM supporters are firmly behind Mr Museveni as the sole candidate for NRM’s flag bearer.
This unanimity is reminiscent of the past political behaviour. Since independence, Ngora had been perceived to be the cradle of Uganda Peoples Congress. That feeling is so deep that during the return to multiparty politics in 2001, it only served to spark off fond memories of the UPC’s old-good days for Teso. But it remains a puzzle why that feeling is not translated into votes.
“In 2011, Ambassador Olara Otunnu (former UPC leader) came third after Museveni and Besigye (with 10%) beating DP’s Norbert Mao overall in eastern Uganda. The NRM may win Ngora this time but this means that the opposition spirit here is hard to crash,” former Constituent Assembly delegate for Serere, Mr Christopher Amorut, said.

He said the strong opposition roots in Ngora formed much of what has been influencing the manner in which Teso has been voting since 2006.
“In one way or the other many of the current Teso political leaders have had something relating them to Ngora. Most of these were students at Ngora High School during the insurgency and Ngora was the heart beat for the rebellion. They have a feel of where Teso dissent stems from,” said Mr David Okurut, a journalist with Soroti-based Veritas FM radio station.
Although internal wrangles could be threatening to split NRM leaders in the district ahead of the party’s primary elections, there is still hope that not all is lost.
“Chances are high that NRM could take Ngora this time but the ongoing bickering amongst the NRM district executive members could cause that to vanish,” a senior NRM mobiliser who asked not to be named fearing reprisal from the party said.

With the changing dynamics though, it is increasingly becoming clear that voters in Ngora this time are likely to vote the way they will largely not because of a candidate’s political affiliation but for his or her personal attributes.
“And in case the opposition still has their choice, definitely they will vote for the person they want,” Ms Rodha Amuge.
“The truth is that people of Ngora are not NRM but are just caught between a rock and hard place. Opposition parties (FDC and UPC) may have not delivered to the expectations of the people of Ngora but still the people are desperate,” said Gabriel Opolot.

And while Dr Epetait, who has been the MP for Ngora since 2001 may have bowed out, many local voters still believe his voice will still carry weight in 2016. “For the case of Ngora County, it is a tricky vote this time. Dr Epetait had managed to get on well with President Museveni so whoever gives hope [of containing in] that direction could take the day regardless of whether it is an Opposition candidate or from the NRM,” said Nathan Omutojo.
The only stumbling block for the ruling party here is the government’s failure to come good on its promises to compensate people who lost property during the war years here.

Contentious issue
The Opposition is likely to ride on government’s failure to fulifil its promise to compensate people who lost property during the war.