Observers predict three-horse race to State House
KAMPALA.
For Dr Kizza Besigye, the flag bearer campaign has been but a small part of a larger agenda to re-establish himself as the Opposition’s ‘saviour’.
Moving around the country, the former Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) leader has used the campaign to reassure Ugandans, and particularly his supporters, that he still calls the shots and remains at the forefront of the struggle to depose what he calls a rogue regime.
In fact, there has been an almost messianic ring to the way he has been campaigning; preaching about the coming end of days for the regime in power and the resulting redemption of the country.
On the evidence of how he has been received around the country, the former presidential candidate, who has challenged President Museveni in the last three general elections (2001, 2006 and 2011), seems set for a fourth one.
Until he picked nomination papers to run in the FDC flag bearer race, many observers had decided Dr Besigye would not contest in the 2016 polls, thereby allowing retired army commander, Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu, to finally take on his former commander-in-chief. Barring an upset, it seems like Muntu could find himself denied that opportunity by a man who had stepped aside, three years ago.
The medical doctor and former bush war comrade of Mr Museveni has brushed aside that widely reported statement in which he is quoted as saying he would not take part in any election again without meaningful reforms. Instead, he has given the impression that the search for a flag bearer is more of a home-coming for him; a re-taking of the controls.
“It seems there are people who are thinking that the job we started ended along the way; we shall finish it. The job I have, the job I tasked myself and the job I will never leave is to end our captivity,” Besigye said at the launch of his campaigns on July 14.
As early as 2011, Besigye had made it known to the FDC leadership that he was cutting short his term as party leader to allow time for the next FDC leader to widen his influence and consolidate himself as FDC president. Subsequently, Muntu was elected FDC president in an acrimoniously contested election against current FDC secretary general Nandala Mafabi.
Writing about Besigye’s resignation in 2012, Peoples Progressive Party (PPP) spokesperson Saddam Gayira had this to say:
“Besigye will leave a big gap which must be filled by the Opposition in general. As a matter of urgency, we must produce presidential candidates who will match him or even be stronger than him, well in advance, if we are to compete favourably in the 2016 elections.”
First forward to 2015, Mr Gayira’s prophesy may not have come to pass. Dr Besigye is back, partly because the Opposition leadership appears to have failed to do what Gayira said that needed to be done.
Dr Besigye has been sending a three-tier message in his speeches: telling Ugandans to take back their power; establishing communication lines between the Besigye campaign team and the electorate and finally bracing for “action” in case what he calls the “will of the people” is thwarted in the forthcoming polls.
The return
According to insiders, the retired colonel’s decision to return and contest within FDC was taken after observing an Opposition that appeared to be in disarray and seemed leaderless.
The ground for his candidature as FDC flag bearer solidified during the June 12 FDC polls where the party elected new leaders. Many Besigye’s die-hards who had sat on the fence after his premature exit from the party presidency in 2012 returned and were overwhelmingly voted by the same FDC delegates who will vote in the September 2 polls.
Some of these leaders include Budadiri West MP Nathan Nandala Mafabi, who was voted FDC secretary general; Rubaga Division Mayor Joyce Ssebugwawo, who was voted as FDC’s deputy president for central region; and Kyadondo East MP Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, voted secretary for information and publicity.
Others were Tororo MP Geoffrey Ekanya, voted as FDC treasurer general, Ingrid Turinawe as secretary for mobilisation; Roland Mugume Kaginda as deputy chairman western and Harold Kaija as deputy secretary general (administration).
Turinawe, Kaija and Kaginda have gone ahead to play pivotal roles in Besigye’s campaigns for FDC flag bearer, with Ekanya chairing the Elect Besigye Task Force.
Nandala, by virtue of his position, has not actively participated in the flag bearer campaigns, but his aides have been on Besigye’s side.
Positioning
Besigye has offered himself as a medium through which supporters can recover from what is being touted as three years of a “dull party” under Muntu, who declared from the outset that his priority would be the building of party structures at the grassroots.
While grassroots structure building is important for any political party, the Muntu leadership seems to have come up short on morale building among many party supporters, who have made it known that the colonel’s exit dampened things.
This has caused an apparent rift between the two senior FDC leaders which, to their credit, they have tried to play down by avoiding attacking each other and instead concentrating on the issues, ills of the ruling government and what they can offer to the electorate.
People have received Besigye in their thousands almost wherever he has held rallies right from the kick off in his hometown of Kasangati. That enthusiasm has graduated to something unprecedented: supporters holding impromptu fundraisings to help cover the costs of Besigye’s campaigns. While the money has not been much (Shs 11 million by last week), the symbolism of the act is trend-setting given that in Uganda, it is usually the politicians who donate to the masses.
As such, the FDC election, which takes place on Wednesday for flagbearer and other officer holders, will be a referendum on the current occupant of the FDC presidency. In that sense, the outcome of the September 2 poll will be determined partly by whether delegates exonerate or find Muntu guilty of not steering the party in the direction they think is right.
History is not in favour of Muntu who has lost to Besigye twice now. That is not to say he does not command a following. To the contrary, there are those, including senior members, who feel their former leader is wrong in returning.
In the 2009 party president polls, Besigye won a landslide, getting 689 votes against Muntu’s 59, out of 780 ballots which were cast.
In another decisive defeat, Besigye won the FDC 2011 election flag-bearer ticket with 845 (84%) of the votes compared to Muntu’s 115 (16%) during a delegates conference at Namboole Stadium.
Three-candidate race
With the FDC election seemingly swinging in favour of Besigye, another bigger battle awaits him if he sails through. Ever since President Museveni came to power, it has always been a two-horse race between him (Museveni) and a candidate whom the Opposition has coalesced behind. While there have been other candidates in all the races since 1996, their performance has been negligible.
The 2016 election, for the first time, promises to be a three-horse race between President Museveni who ensured by all means necessary that he would not have a challenger in NRM; former prime minister john Patrick Amama Mbabazi, who is running as an independent and an Opposition front candidate running under The Democratic Alliance.
The entry of Mr Mbabazi in the race brings new dimension, not only to the NRM situation but opened for the Opposition, which must now compete for the underdog tag with him. Besigye has made it known to all that Mbabazi presents a threat, and one that he has positioned himself to confront.
He was candid in his address during a rally in Kasese about the threat Mr Mbabazi (fondly referred to as JPAM by admirers) presents.
“I came to this election for two reasons... to galvanise our support. Actually, many of our people, especially in the east and the north, had started looking at JPAM. I believe I can help galvanise this support,” he said.
He had earlier sounded a similar warning on July 19 as he addressed FDC delegates from the districts of greater Mukono, including Buikwe and Buvuma.
“I am worried about the rise of Amama because he is likely to take some of our party supporters in the 2016 presidential elections because of the divisions we have in our party that are yet to be resolved.”
In this environment which suggests stiffer competition, echoes of the regrettable scenes of 2001 and 2006 are ominously being heard. Then, both State and regime-associated non-State actor unleashed a vicious campaign of intimidation, harassment and brutality against regime opponents.
“With [Inspector General of Police Kale] Kayihura and Kakooza Mutale’s militias ready, the stage for election violence is set and it would be important to see the response of those in the Opposition,” David Pulkol, a former External Security Organisation chief, said in an interview.
After years of hibernating underground after widespread condemnation by the public, civil society and rights groups, Maj. Kakooza Mutale is reported to be training individuals to possibly carry out similar acts of brutality as those attributed to the Kalangala Action Plan (KAP) group he led in the run-up to 2001. Even as KAP regroups, there are fears that its actions, and those of any other body with similar intentions, could provoke a different sort of reaction given the three-horse nature of the coming campaign.
While it was easy to unleash violence in 2001 and 2006, Mr Pulkol says things have changed.
“It is no longer possible for the population to just look on. There are disgruntled people who… will be there to counter this sort of violence,” Mr Pulkol warns.
