TDA is about vested interests

Ofwono Opondo

They all came – leaders of the NRMO, FDC, UPC, DP and JEEMA, including religious and NGO leaders – thirstily running to the muddy well of political fortunes. Like elephants, giraffes, buffalos, zebras, water hogs, hyenas, lions, crocodiles, snakes, monkeys and frogs emerging from bushes or air, converging on a muddy drying stream in search of water.
There can be no doubt that the year 2015-2016 will be the year of famine for most politicians in Uganda.

Sometime ago, I predicted that President Museveni and the NRM party would win or rig themselves into power comfortably.
However, with the grand coalition of Ugandan political groups, Mr Amama Mbabazi and other individuals stampeding towards the drying well of political power, I am not sure any more.
Can you imagine Mahogany (former vice president Gilbert Bukenya), together with Dr Kizza Besigye, each of whom in their political careers have cursed one another, coming together hand in hand to the political well, all expecting to reap from the political remnants left by President Museveni and his band of ministers, some of whom are accused of having looted everything and anything their successors could benefit from.

They all come converging on a muddy drying stream in search of water.
They ignore one another; carnivores with herbivores, the hunters with the hunted. They all mingle together until they have quenched their thirst, if at all subsequently the rains come. They then remember what they are. The hunters chase and devour their prey, the snake swallows the frogs and rats, the zebras and the water hogs are converted into food by their enemies. Animals eat animals just as man will eat man or woman and vice versa after the 2016 elections.
The grand coalition is not based on any ideology, principles or common belief, but is founded on the ambition to replace one privileged class with another.

Since last year, the NRMO party has enjoyed all the benefits of power. The placards and slogans of the NRMO party parade their leaders both actual and potential. Should its opponents attempt to do the same, they are branded by the ruling party leaders and its supporters as non-patriotic, undisciplined and unfit to govern.
NGOs and the media continue making little noise or remain silent against this apparent injustice. Incidentally, there are some contradictions in the alignment of political forces that are hoping to take power in 2016.

They are so differently structured that no one can claim for them that birds of the same feather flock together. We have seen wide divisions in the NRMO, FDC, DP and UPC. The only party that appears not to have shown any signs of division is the defunct Kabaka Yekka. However, following the unconstitutional enactment of the restrictive amendments to the provisions of the Constitution relating to kingdoms and traditional rulers, intended to silence the likes of the Kabaka of Buganda, the Mengo establishment threatened to take the central government to court to challenge the Act, but appears to have developed cold feet because of government’s generous offers of ebyaffe and preferential treatment.

Many people expect the Buganda establishment and the Mengo leadership to support the grand alliances in 2016. However, a small bird continues whispering that Buganda will vote for Museveni and NRMO. Northern region is expected to follow suit. The west is expected to vote overwhelmingly for Museveni but Mbabazi may spoil it. As for the rest, it is sheer guess work.
It leaves me to comment on a Bakiga friendship that is likely to be severely challenged by the 2016 elections. I refer to my good friends Dr Ruhakana Rugunda and Amama Mbabazi. Their unbreakable friendship has existed since they were in Kabale and school boys. It flourished while they were in exile in Sweden and blossomed as they served this country for a long time in ministerial posts.

Following the Kyankwanzi resolution in which party MPs declared Mr Museveni as a sole candidate for the NRMO for 2016, Ndugu Rugunda was one of the key few ministers who did not sign a resolution. When asked why he had not done so, Ndugu uncharacteristically remarked, “That is not how the NRMO party elects its flag bearers.”
It was expected that he would stick to his friend Amama come what may. Then he accepted to become the prime minister.
If Mbabazi stands, he will be diametrically opposed to Ndugu who has now swallowed his words and is a member of the committee to re-elect President Museveni in 2016. But knowing their character and political acrobatics, friendship will endure.

Mr Opondo is executive director
at Uganda Media Centre..