Voter turnout may be hit by no reforms – observers

As Ugandans prepare to go to the polls in six months, political analysts have warned of a possible record low voter turnout.
In the contested report of the House’s Legal Committee on The Constitutional Amendments Bill, 2015, (tabled last Tuesday), the NRM majority in the House rejected the Opposition’s push for a total overhaul of the Electoral Commission, not a mere cosmetic changing of name, to ensure free and fair elections.
Meanwhile, in a minority report, Opposition lawmakers on the committee continue to demand that the President’s hand be removed from the electoral process.

They have also demanded that the army be removed from electoral process, qualification of the commissioners be provided for in the law and their term of office secure to ensure that they work independently. They have also recommended that the proposed nine commissioners be appointed by the Judicial Service Commission, among others.
But with the NRM majority in the House and what sources called behind-the-scenes involvement of President Museveni, it’s likely that these efforts will be thwarted.
Mr Crispy Kaheru, the head of Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda (CCEDU) and other election observers, have warned that, “If we don’t have reforms, we are likely to head for another election that may be contested at varied levels – both at process and outcome level.”

“If we do not get the meaningful reforms, then that is likely to buttress perceptions or realities around the credibility of the electoral process. The result announced from an election without reforms will be very easy to challenge – something that we wouldn’t want to see,” Mr Kaheru said, adding, “Other factors notwithstanding, if meaningful reforms are not undertaken, this is likely to continue affecting the confidence that the electorate has in respect to taking part in elections.”

However, even before the Legal Committee dashed hopes for meaningful reforms, the politicians had sent out conflicting messages — some were demanding for the suspension of the elections to allow time for “meaningful reforms” and others were pushing for a poll boycott.
In such an environment, the ruling party continues to put on a brave face, observing that threats of a boycott are a sign of “cowardice”. The Electoral Commission is also staying the course, their view is that “with or without electoral reforms, there will be credible elections in 2016”.

The Constitution (Amendment) Bill, 2015 tabled by Justice minister Kahinda Otafiire in April sparked off disagreements and street protests. After realising that their proposals were snubbed in the government Bill, the Opposition accused the authorities of “impunity and arrogance” and called the new bill “a travesty of democracy”.

The angst persists in Parliament, which failed to start debate on the matter this week after running into legal trouble because of the proposal that an MP will lose his or her seat if he or she “ceases” to be a member of the political party under which they were elected to Parliament. This matter is in the Supreme Court where four former NRM MPs lodged a petition.

The people Daily Monitor talked insist that because most of the government reforms adopted by the Tashobya Committee don’t provide real solutions to some of the legal, administrative and political challenges that have previously affected elections, any subsequent election held with little or no reviews will certainly not be different.
The other controversial proposal in the Bill is a provision to allows MPs to switch parties 12 months to fresh elections. Shadow attorney general Abdu Katuntu (Bugweri) warned that this would plunge the House into confusion since the life of Parliament continues after the general elections.

However, the battle over electoral reforms, more than anything else, seems to focus on reforming the Badru Kiggundu-led Electoral Commission. For the Tashobya Committee, where the ruling party enjoys an overwhelming majority, rejection of any attempts in this direction highlights the hardening of positions.
Regime officials have advised their opponents to go to court and maintain that the government is not under any obligation to incorporate what the Opposition and civil society proposed in the Bill.
These disagreements have given rise to such questions as: Will the proposed constitutional reforms make or break democracy? How will these reforms affect the elections? And what’s the way forward?

Some commentators say they will have little impact on the next election. That, more Ugandans will stay away from the polls because they don’t trust the current electoral process. This is because the recommendations of the Legal Committee and the proposals brought by the government according to Mr Nicholas Opiyo, a political analyst, serve a political purpose.
“The need for reforms of the electoral law was apparent the day after the last general election. All observer reports called for reform of the law. But they waited until a couple of months to table proposals for amendment of the laws,” Mr Opiyo said.

“The proposals made are short in substance, late in time (for the next election) and incapable of the comprehensive reforms required for free and fair elections.”
The Legal Committee has recommended the need for a comprehensive constitutional review process and admitted that not all Ugandans were consulted. The committee visited just 16 of Uganda’s 112 districts.

The point Opposition leaders are trying to make, according to Mr Theodore Ssekikubo (Lwemiyaga) and other senior legislators in the House, is that in any country, even in well-established democracies, the legal framework and administrative processes for elections need to be seen as organic, requiring regular review and modification.
“Any meaningful electoral reforms should reflect the people’s aspirations for free and fair elections,” Mr Ssekikubo said. “Voters should have confidence in the Electoral Commission so as to safeguard the integrity of the electoral process. In the event that this is not realised by the end of the constitutional review process, don’t get surprised when more Ugandans choose to stay home on the voting day.”

Voter turn-out has been dropping from 72 per cent in 1996 to 69.7 per cent in 2001; 69.2 per cent in 2006 before hitting a low in 2011 with 57.1 per cent. If this describes a growing apathy resulting from a losing of confidence, then the 2016 are especially at risk given the loud and sustained focus which has been brought to bear on the credibility of the process leading up to it.