Voters in west, north say Uganda on right track

Kampala.

Majority Ugandan voters, particularly in western and northern regions, say the country is taking the “right direction” and, in response to a separate question, report an improvement in their lives since the last election five years ago.

According to results of a survey commissioned by Daily Monitor, almost an equal number in eastern and central regions (tied at 61 per cent) feel Uganda is on the right track, but far fewer respondents in the Kampala metropolitan area say so.

More women than men, and more people in rural than urban areas, believe Uganda is heading in the right direction. In fact, most male voters interviewed said Uganda was headed the wrong direction.

The Kenya-headquartered Infotrak Research and Consulting firm and its Ugandan partner, Tango Consult, interviewed 1,500 randomly-selected registered voters in 48 of the 112 districts during the opinion poll conducted from December 6 to 9.

Seven of every 10 voters in the rural areas said Uganda was on the right track while majority urban dwellers, represented in the survey by the capital city and neighbouring Wakiso District, felt the country was skidding the wrong way.

Demographic trends
There are fewer Ugandans from the sampled population, and in the 26-30 age bracket, who are hopeful that the country is on the right path compared to respondents of 31 years and above.
A significant number (64 per cent) among 18-24 year-olds said Uganda was on the right lane, likely because majority of such interviewees were students still benefitting from their parents or guardians’ generosity, and, therefore, far unaware of life’s real burdens.

Overall, six of every 10 interviewees expressed satisfaction with the direction of the country of 35 million, while four in 10 said “no” or “don’t know”.

Those satisfied with Uganda’s trajectory cited “development in various areas, peace, freedom and political stability”, and those who felt otherwise based on “the yearning for change in leadership, big gap between the rich and poor and poverty and unfulfilled government promises”.

The tale of President Museveni, in power for almost 30 years, making a promise and delaying or failing to fulfill it altogether is not new.

Pledges
A leaked 2013 dossier prepared by Parliament’s Government Assurances Committee showed that 138 roads, 30 of which Mr Museveni promised to upgrade to bitumen during campaigns for his 2011 re-election, were among the President’s 187 pledges still unfulfilled since he came to power in 1986. The presidency disputed the compilations, but offered no alternative fact.

According to the August House’s accountability committee, government would require at least Shs13 trillion, which is more than half of Uganda’s total annual budget, to implement the presidential pledges that include roads, hospitals, schools, airport, bridges, and electricity.

The pollsters found that one per cent of respondents were, for no stated reason, “just happy” with the country’s direction.
More people in Kampala and Wakiso, followed by central and eastern regions, said Uganda was headed the “wrong direction”, mapping out areas with higher discontent that the Opposition could exploit, and which Mr Museveni will have to work harder to sway, for favourable results in the February 18, 2016, vote.

In response to the question: If you compare five years ago and your current state of life, would you say things are better than before, same as before or worse than before?, six of every 10 respondents answered “better than before”, two of every 10 said “same as before” and an equal number said “worse than before”.

Seventy per cent of respondents in western Uganda, the backyard of President Museveni and his two top challengers Kizza Besigye and Amama Mbabazi, said their lives were better than five years ago. This was followed by 68 per cent of interviewees in northern Uganda where people, who were confined in internally displaced people’s camps and are picking up their lives from the ruins of an almost two-decade war. This suggests that billions of shillings pumped to open new roads and establish other social infrastructure under the Peace, Recovery and Development Programme is yielding political dividends for government.

Findings by candidates
The pollsters also disaggregated the findings by the three main presidential candidates: incumbent Yoweri Museveni, Forum for Democratic Change’s Kizza Besigye and Independent Amama Mbabazi.
“Amongst Museveni supporters, 64 per cent feel life is better than five five years ago; among Besigye supporters, 59 per cent feel life is better than before; and, among Amama’s supporters, 64 per cent feel that life is better than five years ago,” they noted.

That fewer Besigye than both Museveni and Mbabazi supporters said life felt better than five years ago is unsurprising because the Opposition candidate’s has continued to drill the message for removal of NRM, who leaders he said are corrupt and enriching themselves while impoverishing majority Ugandans.

On the other hand, former prime minister Mbabazi has remained a part of the NRM that he said has done a lot of good things but lately veered off course, casting himself as a less-disruptive replacement for Mr Museveni.

How the poll was conducted

The poll was done by the Kenya-based firm Infotrak Research and Consulting firm in conjunction with Tango Consult, a Kampala-based firm. Infotrak “also has a hub office for West Africa in Lagos, Nigeria, and field contacts in more than 20 other countries in Africa”. Tango describes itself as an “applied market, socio-econ-legal research and consultancy company founded by Ugandans, South Sudanese and Kenyan professionals”.

Data collection was done between December 6 and December 9 among a sample of 1,500 respondents who were selected randomly. Data collection was done using face-to-face computer assisted personal interviews at the household level. 25 per cent of those interviewed were called back to confirm that the data collectors actually interviewed them.

The data collectors registered the Global Positioning System grids of the households of the interviewees in 75 per cent of the cases. In the remaining 25 per cent, the GPS grids could not be read because of either mountainous terrain or rainy weather.
The sample size of the respondents, all of them being Ugandans of voting age, was determined according to Uganda’s voting population which is estimated at over 15m.

The sample, according to the pollster, translated into a minimum margin of error of minus or plus 2.53 at 95 per cent level of confidence.

The survey was conducted across all the regions – northern, eastern, western, central and Kampala Metropoltian, which was taken to comprise Kampala and Wakiso districts. Interviews were conducted in a total of 48 districts out of Uganda’s 112 districts.

The number of respondents picked per region was based on the relative percentage of that region’s population vis-a-vis the national population total. The gender distribution of the respondents was 53.7 per cent female and 46.3 percent male.

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