Unsettled waters as Bukenya, eastern Uganda enter 2016 race

Kampala- With two years and just about four months left before Ugandans go to the polls again, a picture of how the next challenge for State House will shape up is beginning to emerge from the dust of the 2011 campaign.

The latest indication that the 2016 fever is well and truly with us was former Vice President Gilbert Bukenya drawing first blood with his noisy declaration of a bid for his former boss’ job.

His declaration has been derided as going nowhere by regime propagandists. Elsewhere, some opposition outposts have made cautious noises of welcome to the new entrant to what has been a traditionally bruising affair between Mr Museveni and his opponents.

Prof Bukenya says he will not be overawed, intimidated or, in any way, daunted from the challenge against Mr Museveni. If the news mill is to be believed, the portly doctor is quite putting in place structures and networks of supporters whom he expects to support his first-time bid for the presidency.

The man says he wants to reform the country’s murky politics, with his catchy campaign slogan being “A change now for a better Uganda”.
A politician representing a constituency in Buganda, the country’s largest ethnic bloc, Bukenya was vice president from May 23, 2003 until May 23, 2011 when President Museveni dropped him in a Cabinet reshuffle.
On October 3, the same year, he was dumped in Luzira prison over suspected abuse of office and influence peddling in the award of a contract to supply executive cars for use during the 2007 Commonwealth summit in Kampala.
He has never forgiven the regime for making him the fall guy of the scandal in which millions of shillings were abused in the Chogm scandal.

In one of his recent posts on Facebook, Prof Bukenya writes: “I need more volunteers to participate in certain specific roles as we engage more people in our quest for change. I am very confident that we are getting there every passing day and soon Uganda will be back on the road to development. This is a call to everyone that wants to see Uganda back to its lost glory, to join in and let’s take this walk to freedom.”

If that campaign gets off the ground, Ugandans can expect a lot of political messaging titled towards such high-minded and oft-touted ideals as “Unity, Peace and Development”.

Already, social media networks are awash with examples of what to expect from the man who at one time astonished the country with the claim that it is only Mr Museveni who was endowed with the vision to run this republic.
In the background, NRM sympathisers agonise that there appears to have been deliberateness to the timing of Prof Bukenya’s declaration last month: He broke the news at just about the same time the opposition escalated postings of propaganda, denigrating NRM’s achievements while highlighting its failures. A lot of emphasis is being placed on the perceived damage Mr Museveni’s continued stay in power after three decades is doing to the country.

Minister for Presidency Frank Tumwebaze, a newcomer to the fold going by 1986 credentials, is the man who now holds the first line of defence for the ruling party’s leader. He vigorously disputes the opposition narrative that depicts the NRM leader as a failure.

In interviews for this piece, the minister observed that it is more than two years since NRM was given a fresh mandate to lead Uganda and that the new achievements are visible [for those with eyes to see].
He said in only two years, President Museveni enhanced power generation from as low as 500mw in 2011 to now 830mw even before the proposed Karuma and Isimba power projects come on board.
“That’s certainly not a failure but success,” the minister purrs.

Ignored reforms?
In his estimation, virtually all districts are now connected to a tarmac road and that: “Every district of Uganda has been given a road unit to work on community access roads and that road works are already underway to enhance agricultural production and marketing.”

That line of counter attack suits the ruling party just fine because they plunged into the 2006 and 2011 races on the back of a ‘Prosperity-for-All’ gospel, and must, therefore; show what has been done to make the wealth for all fairy tale a reality.

“The NRM government has maintained excellent monetary and fiscal policies that have enabled the economy remain resilient to external shocks. This is why inflation was able to be tamed back to a single digit; to as low as 3.4 per cent, the lowest ever in Uganda,” he said. “That alone is a manifestation of prudent macro-economic management” by a government he said restored democracy and good governance.

“The skepticism of the opposition and their usual rhetoric does not help Ugandans in any way and I challenge those people who claim that the President has failed to tell Ugandans what is their superior alternative policy on infrastructure, job creation, economy and agriculture. The President’s view is that investment in infrastructure as well as energy and roads are the most important stimuli to economic growth and employment creation and that has been the area of NRM excellence in the last two years,” Mr Tumwebaze maintains.

But any emphasis on Mr Museveni’s accomplishments in ensuring national security and economic stability, immediately faces challenges with what his critics call “ubiquitous” corruption and his failure to hand over power. The stench of corruption in government is so suffocating, they say; that it erodes any gains to be had from a stable macro-economic environment.

Some political analysts believe the regime has been made exceptionally vulnerable because of the rot of graft and this partly explains why people such as Prof Bukenya have found it easy to make the decision to take on the boss, while others in the succession queue seem to be losing patience.

Within the NRM party, there are other potential candidates such as Speaker Rebecca Kadaga; the President’s wife, Janet Kataha Museveni and Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi. One school of thought is that Ms Kadaga’s current troubles in Parliament where the grapevine is rife with reports of plots and counterplots to undermine her tenancy have their root in the suspicion that she could upset the Museveni applecart.

If true, the Speaker could emerge as the so-called ‘Eastern option’. Of the eight individuals who have led Uganda as President in the past, none of them has come from the east.
Three northerners (Dr Apollo Milton Obote, Idi Amin, Gen Tito Okello Lutwa), a westerner (Museveni) and southerners (Ssekabaka Edward Muteesa, Godfrey Binaisa, Prof Yusuf Lule and Paulo Muwanga) are the former presidents.
Kadaga enthusiasts, therefore, suggest that the time has come for the east “to eat”. It is said in her, Uganda could find a likely post-Museveni transition vehicle which ensures national stability and is acceptable to all parties, not like Mwai Kibaki in Kenya’s post-Moi era.

However, the eastern option, if at all, has another quantity in the Mr Nathan Nandala Mafabi, the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament (LoP). He introduced himself rather noisily to national politics as chairperson of the Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee and has had a dramatic and colourful reign as LoP. Do not count him out yet.
The Speaker has not said anything publicly to give credence to the speculation about her future, but neither has she come out to deny the possibility.
Lurking in the shadows is the usually inscrutable Mr Mbabazi. Underestimate his intentions at your peril, so insiders say.
But still, the anticipation of “another rap” by Mr Museveni remains. He shows no sign that he is leaving the stage, remains steadfast in his belief that the opposition is not ready to form the next government, but is also saddled with the crushing weight of widespread corruption and poor service delivery, which continue to bedevil his rule.
Mr Nicholas Opiyo, an emerging political commentator, opines that the initiative is still with the President. First, Mr Opiyo says, there is hardly any growth in strength in the traditional opposition parties.

According to him, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), the closest rival to the NRM, appears to have peaked under Rtd Col Kizza Besigye, whom he said, “should not take a fourth bite at the cherry, [because] that will deprive the opposition of his gravitas and resilience”.

NRM strategies
Secondly, Opiyo said, the NRM on top of being the most financially stable party (dipping its hands into State coffers as it emerged recently in revelations about how Shs10 billion in micro-credit money was illegally used as patronage to oil the NRM re-election in 2011), has got a head start on its rivals.

The passing of the draconian Public Order Management Bill, 2011, which erodes rights and freedoms to free speech and assembly; and the government’s reluctance to table election reform bills ahead of time will all contrive to restrict the opposition and delay any electoral reform which could level the playing field “till the 11th hour.”

This delay will combine with other factors to win the polls for the NRM even before they are held, Mr Opiyo fears.
But talking of “another rap,” which was the President’s 2011 campaign mantra, the director Anti-Corruption Coalition Uganda (ACCU), Ms Cissy Kagaba, said, in 2016, “any candidate who will want to sway the youth will have to do more than rapping because almost all the promises to the youth have not been kept and yet they continue to be used as a determining factor in any election.”

After more than two decades of uninterrupted rule, the voices of dissent within the ruling party urging Museveni to retire in 2016, before the next polls, are growing louder. Unrest also pervades the largest constituency of youth who make up the majority of the electorate because of exceptionally high rates of unemployment.
According to the analysts, what’s likely to make the 2016 elections interesting is not so much the NRM’s financial muscle over the other candidates, but the new faces vying for the highest office in the country in what is expected to be the most expensive election the country has ever held since independence.

The price tag for the 2016 elections is estimated at Shs1.2 trillion, up from Shs198 billion spent in the 2011 polls.
“Ugandans are watching these developments within the NRM party with a lot of interest,” Mr Theodore Ssekikubo (Lwemiyaga), one of the expelled NRM members, said. “The year 2016 is going to be interesting because if Museveni insists on running again, he is not going through unchallenged. There are serious issues to talk about; Ugandans are tired of empty promises. When we talked about the NRM failures, they forced us out but people can’t wait forever.”
As Prof Bukenya prepares to take on his former boss in the NRM primaries to choose a flag bearer, Dr Besigye faces the decision of his political life; whether to take on FDC leader Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu, and others within the party, or retire to the rearguard as an elder statesman to be used as a secret weapon.

In the background, lies the Democratic Party, Uganda Peoples Congress, Uganda Federal Alliance, Conservative Party, Jeema. DP’s Norbert Mao, UPC’s Olara Otunnu and UFA’s Beti Kamya cannot yet be written out of the 2016 story.
There are other prospective entrants like Jimmy Akena (UPC), whose introduction could radically change the colour of the race in both eastern and northern Uganda where the Opposition has tended to enjoy relatively greater sympathy.
“The first step is for those of us who want change in our country to get organised,” Mr Mao who introduced himself to national voters in 2011, said. “We need to agree on a unified agenda for a united, democratic, peaceful and prosperous Uganda.”

That agenda, Mr Mao said, “should restore a sense of ownership of the country to all citizens. The Uganda of today is one where things do not work for the majority. Citizens must feel that they have a stake in the economic fortunes of the country.”

Coalition impossible?

Political analysts are increasingly of the view that the idea of an opposition coalition, as was the case with Reform Agenda, Inter-Party Cooperation, will, if crafted, fall flat on its face.
The divergence of views in the Opposition, the bad history and mistrust between their leaders and lack of internal cohesion in respective parties, analysts say, render the NRM’s rivals incapable of mounting a sustained coalition challenge.
Mr Otunnu, for instance, is even more convinced in his conviction that while the country is yearning for change, the current electoral process organised on Mr Museveni’s terms will again result in massive fraud and rigging of elections to maintain the status quo.
He quit the Inter Party Coalition prior to the 2011 elections, which has since promoted the idea of a National Social Movement to “champion the fight for democracy” in the country.

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