El Clasico shadow hovers over Wembley

With little to choose between the protagonists in either semifinal tie, it is left to Messi and Ronaldo to tip the scales yet again, and there is more than enough evidence to suggest that they need no invitation.

With little to choose between the protagonists in either semifinal tie, it is left to Messi and Ronaldo to tip the scales yet again, and there is more than enough evidence to suggest that they need no invitation.

A Clasico final at Wembley would be only the latest episode of the enduring Messi vs Ronaldo sitcom that has excited, intrigued and enraged in equal measure, and the number-crunchers at UEFA are no doubt drooling.

I would rather have a different climax to this latest edition of the convention of Europe’s finest, and an all German final wouldn’t do it for me either; the spectre of the El Clasico looms large in reality though, with Barcelona and Real Madrid slight favourites to end the Bundesliga’s quest at the penultimate hurdle.

With little to choose between the protagonists in either semifinal tie, it is left to Messi and Ronaldo to tip the scales yet again, and there is more than enough evidence to suggest that they need no invitation.

They couldn’t have faced sterner examination though, and only their very brilliant best will suffice this time.

Barcelona vs Bayern
Encumbered by injury for virtually the first time in his career, Messi goes into Tuesday’s first leg with the fitness doubts that should lift Bayern’s spirits.

But even if Bayern can further slow him down by snapping at his heels and tugging at his hamstrings (pardon the cruel pun) at the Allianz Arena, the newly installed German champions will want to know that in ties like these Messi saves his most magical for the Camp Nou, as AC Milan and PSG will ruefully acknowledge.

On the only two occasions that Barca haven’t prevailed at this stage in the last five editions, the Argentine has had to be shackled by great team effort, coupled with bravery (Inter Milan in 2010) and more than a slice of good fortune (Chelsea last season).

Without Messi Bayern would knock-out Barcelona (PSG would have too), with a half-fit Messi the Germans are favourites, and even with the little phenomenon at full throttle the Bavarians can still get it done. His powers of recovery, highlighted a couple of times in the wake of previous scares, suggest that he will be in fine fettle after sitting out the La Liga trip to Zaragoza last Sunday, but what Tito Villanova does with him when Levante visits tonight will be most telling.

With a central midfield that matches Barca for numbers, Bayern can stifle Messi if Javi Martinez and Toni Kroos take turns to pay close attention. Kroos is young enough to combine that chore with bombing forward (like Chelsea’s Ramires did last year), while Martinez can multi-task in the relatively easier way, doubling as the horizontal patroller. That would leave Bastian Schweisteiger, a little further advanced, to get in Xavi’s face and deny the connoisseur open looks.

Considering the subtle threat posed by Andres Iniesta, it wouldn’t be bad at all if Arjen Robben was sacrificed for an extra midfielder, a Gustavo or Xherdan Shaqiri, but the flying Dutchman is almost back to his best and gives Bayern width, a goal threat, antidote for left back Jordi Alba, and outlet for the counter-attack. Besides, Robben and Frank Ribery both attract double teams when in possession on opposite touchlines, and will affect Barca’s shape while providing ammunition for the imposing Mario Mandzukic and the elusive Thomas Muller.

With the biggest and most varied arsenal in Europe this season, Bayern don’t have to be in a hurry and it will be essential for Phillip Lahm and David Alaba to exercise restraint at the start. But they will be wary that it can all come unstuck by a Messi moment …

Real Madrid vs Dortmund
If Bayern are the deepest, Barcelona the best-oiled and Real Madrid the most athletic, then Dortmund have the most youthful exuberance and fluidity.

Over two games in the group stages it was difficult for Bayern to live with Dortmund in possession and movement, and yet the Germans have twice proved in this tournament that they are not only about tiqui taqa – first when they defended deep and hang on under immense pressure for an entire half in the 2-2 draw at the Bernabeau and then when they improvised with the long ball to overcome Malaga after the passing game could find no way through against the resilient Spaniards in the quarters.

Real Madrid are however in much better form than they were in September, October and November when they fell far behind Barca in the league and couldn’t win their Champions League group; and Bayern would be quick to tell Dortmund (if they asked) that Real are difficult to beat twice in the same season, having themselves been inspired by Mehmet Scholl and Alexander Zickler in the early stages just over a decade ago, only for Madrid to avenge those defeats late on in the same competition.