NUP-DP marriage of convenience unravels

Deep cracks have started to emerge in the ranks of Uganda’s leading opposition party. This follows a constitutional amendment process that has split National Unity Platform (NUP) down the middle, with first-term legislators on the one hand and those that defected from Democratic Party (DP) on the other.

Mr Medard Lubega Sseggona—the Busiro East lawmaker, who chaired the constitutional review team—was the only former DP member who attended the extraordinary delegates conference.
High profile former DP members who were a no-show included Mr Mathias Mpuuga, the Leader of Opposition in Parliament or LoP. Others were Muwanga Kivumbi (Butambala) and Betty Nambooze (Mukono Municipality).
A NUP lawmaker formerly with DP told this publication that the no show was because “the meeting was called on short notice.”

The lawmaker, who preferred to speak to us on condition of anonymity for fear of recrimination, added that “we never attended because we had other commitments already.”
Another NUP lawmaker told us that when the issue of putting two-term limits on all positions—including positions of member of Parliament, Local Council chairperson, and councillor—was floated, “there was no time for debate.” The lawmaker added that the amendment “was passed immediately.”

Mr David Lewis Rubongoya, NUP’s secretary general, told Saturday Monitor thus: “It’s the delegate’s conference that’s empowered to make changes in the constitution. The committee brings proposals, but they can be accepted or rejected by the delegates conference. And 90 percent of the proposals were accepted.”
Most of the lawmakers we spoke to who are amenable to the amendment are first-term legislators who are widely believed to pay allegiance to their party president, Mr Robert Kyagulanyi alias Bobi Wine.

“Like [President] Museveni said, the problem of Africa is people who overstay in power … We don’t want to go his way [by overstaying our welcome],” Mr Joel Ssenyonyi, NUP spokesperson and Nakawa West lawmaker, said.
Mr Geoffrey Kayemba Ssolo (Bukomansimbi South MP), who like Mr Ssenyonyi is a first-term lawmaker, said the two-term limits gives “hope to Ugandans” and affirms NUP’s belief “in democracy.”

Mr Robert Ssekitoleko, who upset the apple cart by beating junior Education minister John Chrysostom Muyingo in the 2021 Bamunanika County MP race, said he voted for amendments because “they give the party a good image.”
He added: “We are giving the opportunity for new blood to take charge.”

Marriage of inconvenience?
Lawmakers formerly with DP were conspicuously silent until LoP Mpuuga came out to describe the term restrictions as “lazy.”
“As one of the elders in the party I offered my counsel and opinion on the same,” Mr Mpuuga, who first joined the House in 2011 said, adding that he reasoned that “for non-executive office without the capacity to exercise executive authority, term limits isn’t something you would really want.”
Mr Mpuuga, who is NUP’s vice president for Buganda region, also said the amendment is “nerve-calming” and nothing more.
“It can calm the political nerves of the day, but it can’t solve the political problems of the future,” he reasoned.

Mr Ssenyonyi told Saturday Monitor that he doesn’t “think [Mr Mpuuga] is angry because the view he had didn’t carry the day.” Mr Mpuuga’s view, he added, “was subjected to the party’s delegates conference and most of the people had a different view altogether.”  
With Kyagulanyi in support of the two-term limit, it seemed highly unlikely that NUP’s seasoned politicians would come out to openly oppose the amendments. Observers say Mr Mpuuga’s boldness hints at the unraveling of a marriage of convenience that unsuccessfully set out to remove President Museveni from power in 2021.

The love affair between Mr Kyagulanyi and the DP members started in 2018. Back then, members of Uganda’s oldest party opposed to their president—Mr Nobert Mao—hoped to sway Mr Kyagulanyi, then the Kyadondo East lawmaker, to their ranks.
Instead, Mr Kyagulanyi ended up coaxing the vast bulk of DP’s members to his NUP party. The exceptions to this were Paulson Kasana Ssemakula Luttamaguzi (Nakaseke South County) and Mary Babirye Kabanda, the Masaka Woman member of Parliament who eventually lost her seat during the 2021 general election.

Have your cake, eat it
Multiple sources say the former DP lawmakers had hoped that Mr Kyagulanyi would not found a party. Many of them hoped to retain their DP cards and then run under the People Power movement as they did in the past with loose coalitions like Suubi.
The sources say Mr Kyagulanyi informed most of his allies about his decision to acquire a political party two or so days before it was inaugurated. Taken aback, Mr Sseggona, Ms Florence Namayanja (MP Bukoto East) and others who were not ready to join NUP turned around and claimed that they were part of DP Bloc.
The DP Bloc was an initiative in which political parties such as Mr Abed Bwanika’s People’s Development Party (PDP) and Mr Michael Mabikke’s Social Democratic Party (SDP) were to be encapsulated into the mainstream DP.
This process, according to our sources, was never completed as it became apparent that Mr Kyagulanyi had upstaged the idea.
As Mr Sseggona and this group turned to resuscitate the “DP Bloc” idea, they said as a bloc they would support Mr Kyagulanyi during the 2021 general election.

Watermelons, pumpkins
Mr Mao, who is now Justice minister, went ahead to mock DP members who were fraternising with Mr Kyagulanyi.
He used the imagery of a watermelon—green (DP’s colour) on the outside and red (People Power’s colour) on the inside—to mock them. The DP Bloc retorted by likening Mr Mao to a pumpkin—green (DP) on the outside, but yellow (NRM) on the inside.
Having launched his party Mr Kyagulanyi gave an ultimatum to all who claimed to have remained in DP but were People Power members.

Like Mr Mao, the then Kyadondo East lawmaker took a radical position. Candidates running on his party’s ticket weren’t expected to serve two masters.
The DP dissidents, who thought they could work with NUP under the auspices of a memorandum of understanding (MoU), realised that they couldn’t have their cake and eat it. They cast their lot with NUP that had momentum in Buganda. Mr Bwanika, a former presidential candidate, even deserted his own PDP to join.

Enemy within?
Fast forward to 2023, Mr Bwanika, who won the Kimaanya-Kabonera seat on a NUP ticket, appears to have fallen out spectacularly with Mr Kyagulanyi.
It all started when Mr Bwanika broke ranks with his party’s top brass for choosing not to engage the sitting government with the end goal of releasing several NUP members facing what he calls “preposterous charges” at the General Court Martial.
“Many youths who supported us are still incarcerated and I think it’s the right time now to meet the government and negotiate with them to release these innocent young people,” Mr Bwanika said last year.

He added: “There is nothing we have not done. We have boycotted parliamentary sittings, and nothing has changed. Many of these young people are in a dire state. They need help, their families are also suffering. It is high time we tried negotiations and stopped cheap politics while other people, our own people, are suffering.”
 
Following the release of NUP lawmakers Mr Allan Ssewanyana (Makindye East) and Mr Muhammad Ssegirinya (Kawempe South)—who spent 524 days in jail on charges of murder and terrorism—Mr Bwanika threw the spanner into the works by claiming that the outcome was a process of talks between NUP leadership and Museveni’s government.
Such a suggestion according to NUP’s leadership borders on criminality. In fact Mr Kyagulanyi shot back without mentioning names, saying: “A boat does not sink because of the water around it. Boats sink because of the water that gets inside them. Museveni isn’t a danger to us; we are a danger to Museveni. If you have evidence that one of our leaders or comrades is working for the enemy, please bring it to us, the leaders.”  
It’s not clear, for now, if Mr Bwanika will even stand in 2026 on a NUP ticket because it seems he is a marked man. Observers say he is not the only person from the DP bloc with a target on his back.