How tensions in the Middle East will make global economy more precarious

In a move expected, but whose full weight registered on the weekend, Iran launched 300 drones and surface to air missiles on Israel and Jordan to avenge prior Israeli attacks on Iran’s embassy in Syria that left two senior Iranian Republican Guard officials dead. 

The drones (remote controlled aircraft systems) are armed flights without pilots. While surface to air missiles are payloads launched from fixed or mobile sites. SAMs are denoted by specific emissions associated with each weapon system that can be picked up by radars. 

The US and Israel military sources stated 99 percent of the payload was intercepted by Patriot Surface to Air Missile interceptors. These heat seeking missiles intercept oncoming fire. Iran and Israel have been engaged in shadow war, with Hezbollah militias, and Hamas. And Hamas’ October 7 invasion of Southern Israel from the West Bank, was quickly followed by renewed hostilities on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.

The new tensions in the Middle East have new global dimensions. The price of crude oil is expected to rise, pushing inflationary pressures globally. The world is still smarting from high inflation occasioned by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the skyrocketed energy and food prices. 

Highly urbanised low and middle income; countries struggled to extend a social safety net to their populations. Next door, Kenya started to subsidise fuel and cereal prices leaving the treasury dry.

In Ukraine, a much-vaunted counteroffensive has still left Ukraine short of territorial ambitions. Proposals for more military aid that have boosted US and European defence manufacturers can only account for one third of Ukraine’s artillery needs.  Ukraine is also worn down by its relatively small population, just 40 million people against Russia’s 140 million people. Both countries use the draft requiring mandatory military service of able-bodied males. 

The draft in Ukraine was recently extended to 25-year-olds from 27-year-olds. The new draft law does not specify how long a draft notice would last.

Young men have run away from both Ukraine and Russia to avoid the draft. Israel is considering removing the exemption, orthodox religious scholars enjoy from the draft a compromise adopted at independence. The Russians have offered early release for prisoners to take up arms against Ukraine and are moving away from the prior method of using military contractors.

The head of Wagner, fell out with President Putin in 2023 and died in a plane crash shortly after take-off.  In the west, military contractors famously have recruited millions from the developed countries to augment US and NATO alliance war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

This military tension is causing concern in the international humanitarian community. The United Nations Security Council is likely to be clogged up in several resolutions condemning one or more parties. Votes against Israel often attract a US veto minus one in recent times where the US abstained.

The ICJ’s inquiry into whether Israel’s current military putsch into the West Bank that has left 30,000 dead amounts to genocide contrary to the International Convention against Genocide is likely to stall in the near future; as are actions against Russia in the Security Council where Russia holds a veto.

So are the leaders of the world’s biggest faiths. Pope Francis has found himself criticised for not speaking out enough. The Eastern Rite, the Orthodox is part of Mr. Putin’s justification for the return to the glory of the former Russian empire.

Needless to add, are the muslims both the Shias- Iran and the Sunnis in Saudi Arabia with whom Israel has been working to mend relations.

The Arab gulf countries sit at the intersection of one of the world’s biggest commercial water transit paths, the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.  Sea pirates have led to diversion of cargoes destined for Europe and North America from Asia.

In the meantime- high prices; lower economic growth will detail 2024 and 2025.

Mr Karoli Ssemogerere is an Attorney-At-Law and an Advocate. [email protected]  
Talking Point