The fall and return of super minister Amama Mbabazi

On Tuesday last week, State House released a picture of President Museveni’s meeting with former prime minister and political challenger Amama Mbabazi at one of Museveni’s farms in Kisozi, Gomba District.

The meeting has left many in the political and public circles drawn in speculation, wondering how a man who decamped from the ruling establishment having drawn a line in the sand, telling his former boss and ally that ‘it’s time,” is now cozying up to him. That does not happen often in Uganda.

The former ‘super minister’ was at one time perceived to be the final man before Museveni passed any judgement; to fire or hire anybody in strategic government positions. At one time he was the only Ugandan outside the First Family who was said to fly the Presidential jet.

Just over five years in opposition Mbabazi was sacked as prime minister at the end of 2014 – is the former juggernaut of the ruling NRM party on his knees seeking re-union with his former ally, Museveni? The lingering question is, the President is said to have met many people including those that he had fallen out with, but their pictures have not been released to the public. In releasing the pictures of his meeting with Mbabazi, who carried a brown envelope, the contents of which have sparked off another debate, was the action meant to expose the former strongman and let tongues wagging against him?

Mr Norbert Mao, the president of the Democratic Party (DP), described the action as job seeking in a private employ ad.
“Did we miss the job ad for Chief Herdsman, aka Mr. Fix-It aka Master Planner at Animal Farm? And... who is that walking behind the Farmer? And the envelope? Does it contain an application and CV? So how was the interview?” Mao posted on his twitter handle.

Despite the four-decade friendship between Mbabazi and President Museveni, the public and others in the political playing field have chosen to discuss the December meeting as a fall back, with some saying Mbabazi has made a U-turn, to re-unite with the giver of all seasons while others argue, it is Museveni who on seeing cracks in his government, has chosen to bring back Mbabazi whom many believed to be a shock absorber.
But why expose the photos? Moses Byaruhanga a senior Presidential Advisor on Political Affairs says the pictures were not released to expose Mr Mbabazi.

“The President does not expose; those pictures that are meant to get to the public get there and those that are not, do not get there,” he said.
Byaruhanga confirmed to Sunday Monitor that at least Mr Mbabazi was on his way back with the Appointing Authority. He said he is not aware of who initiated the meeting but what matters is that “Mr Mbabazi has a contribution to make and all building blocks are necessary.”

The President’s adviser dismissed the school of thought that the former Prime Minister is aching in poverty.
“As a former prime minister, he is entitled to privileges and he could not have been caught up with a miserable life. People are not in government to survive, they are in government to serve,” said Mr Byaruhanga.
But as to whether Mr Mbabazi returns or not, his fallout with the President in 2014 seems to have misled the trust and positions he earlier held to now a public polarising agent.

Mbabazi’s rise to a fierce cadre
Since his return from exile in Sweden after the victory of the NRA rebellion in 1986, Mr Mbabazi served in different government portfolios. He served as Head of the External Security Organisation (ESO) between 1986 and 1992 owing to his diplomatic mastery, and later joined Cabinet where he worked in different respects.
Between 2004 and 2006, Mr Mbabazi held two full Cabinet positions, when he served as Attorney General and, Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs. This earned him the moniker of Super Minister.

As Museveni’s right hand man, Mr Mbabazi held a lot of power and many believed they could never rise to any government position unless they secured his nod. Many of those who ascended to high offices including ministers and Resident District Commissioners worshipped Mr Mbabazi just like many others cursed him for “chopping them from the list.”

When Rtd Col Kizza Besigye chose to take on Museveni in the 2001 elections, Mbabazi accused him of “attempting to jump the queue.”
In the September 2010, election of party structures, Mbabazi trounced his competitors, Prof Gilbert Bukenya and Gen Kahinda Otafiire to become the Party’s Secretary General.

In many respects, Mr Mbabazi was perceived as Museveni’s potential heir to the President throne. Mr Mbabazi’s word to the President’s ear was command and the President returned such loyalty by protecting Mr Mbabazi from both public scrutiny and prosecution.

Despite several scandals such as the Oil Scam, Temangalo Land saga and OPM multi-billion theft, Mr Mbabazi would never be subjected to any investigation because of his high-end connection to power.
Both as an MP and an officer of internal party structures, competing against Mbabazi was only a waste of time.

In his book, In the Corridors to Power authored four years after the Namboole election, former vice president Bukenya said Mbabazi’s victory had been ring-fenced by the President. The book came at a time, both Museveni and Mr Mbabazi were at loggerheads.

Mbabazi’s free fall

In early December 2012, The East African Newspaper reported that, “a cloud is hanging over erstwhile power broker and now Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi’s political future in the wake of a reported falling out with President Yoweri Museveni.”
At the time, a ploy had been mounted, and Mr Mbabazi had been allegedly questioned by the police for stealing lots of money from the ruling party. Daily Moitor had carried the story.

Although both stories were dismissed as false, Mr Mbabazi was on September 18, 2014 sacked as Prime Minister at the height of internal political tensions within the National Resistance Movement. Mr Mbabazi was accused of intrigue and greed as well as breeding internal divisions in the party.

But before the sacking, Mr Mbabazi was treated to a dose of humiliation. The then Prime Minister was surprised when MPs Evelyn Anite and Kasule Lumumba who were his closest allies and often shared deep secrets on the Museveni succession, mooted a move that would not only kill his ambitions but also put him several feet under Museveni’s friends’ list. Anite went first during a party retreat at Kyankwanzi when she went on her knees begging the President to be the party’s sole candidate.
These developments were followed by public utterances by Museveni accusing Mr Mbabazi of “using a public office to fight private, proxy wars.”

Mbabazi was increasingly viewed as a dangerous ally whose impatience had finally come to the full light. Mbabazi kept sinking, both within the party and the government.
Before long, a resolution was passed to have a non-active politician take up office as Secretary General, the Office was also to be left for the Party Chairman to appoint. Another blow came, when the most suited candidate was Lumumba. Once in office, she took a swipe at Mr Mbabazi.

When Mr Mbabazi was sacked and his wife Jaqueline Mbabazi was locked out of a Women’s League conference in 2014, Bukenya jubilated. He accused Mbabazi of blackmailing all his nemesis before the President.
“I am very happy that Jacqueline and perhaps her husband are beginning to reap from their very own dirty handI Mr works of misusing intelligence structures to engineer and doctor maligning reports against their opponents (real and perceived) to the president.

For her to cry foul of how the president was getting doctored intelligence reports and recordings against their alleged clandestine mobilization against him, was the most interesting of all, and it exposed their extreme hypocrisy,” The Observer of March 16, 2014, quoted Mr Bukenya.

Mbabazi has since suffered several arrests and incarcerations by the state especially in the early days of his presidential bid. In the run up to the 2016 elections, Mbabazi went lamenting to voters telling them how he was betrayed by Museveni.
“Before the previous election, we made an agreement with President Museveni about his retirement…we agreed that Uganda would have the opportunity of having new blood, of having new ideas; but in the course of the five years, he changed his mind,” Mbabazi said.
Mbabazi’s main mistake was his failure to control the news of his succession plan. Besides, he had trusted both Anite and Lumumba so much so that they carried his entire board game to the President who had no option but to strike back, and hard. But Mr Mbabazi now seems to have made an about turn.

Ms Ruth Nankabirwa, the Govt Chief Whip and the NRM Caucus Chair, said it should not be surprising that Mbabazi is coming back home. “This is not the first person, we had an incident of the late Eriya Kategaya who had quit but he returned shortly after. And for Mbabazi, he has always been firm about his party allegiance, at least he has been asked on many occasions to state whether he quit NRM and he has never renounced his Party membership. But remember that these are long-time comrades. They have shared a common life for about 43 years, so why should we be speculating about their meeting? Besides, in the political playing field, you can never have permanent enemies.”

Reactions
Betty Aol, Leader of Oppostion:
Mbabazi never gave back his NRM card. When he was on our side, he was not really opposition; he was contesting as an independent. I think Mbabazi is not just falling back, he has always been NRM he has never denounced his party.
You might find that President Museveni who rides on patronage has promised him something, not everyone can be strong enough to persevere the harsh life in the opposition. But he should also think about his integrity.

Joel Ssenyonyi, People Power Spokes Person: So far these are just pictures because he is yet to come out and speak. But if he has crossed back to a regime that he spoke so much about the evil they were doing, and decides to become a flip flop, it is his right. I think that people make choices, Gilbert Bukenya was a flip flop and for Mbabazi it will not be news; most importantly, Ugandans are awake and they know who is on their side. The citizens are very awake and they will deal with them politically. So far the pictures are simply pictures of old comrades.

Rogers Mulindwa, NRM Secretariat’s publicist: It would be to the advantage of every party member to have him back in the system. I have never heard him being critical of the regime he served and he still commands respect within the house. The available records still show him as a party member. He never returned our NRM card. It will be a great opportunity for NRM.

Col Shaban Bantariza Deputy Executive Director of the Uganda Media Centre:
As a government spokesperson, I can’t tell what the meeting was about because I was not there and neither was I informed. But, I was happy about it when I saw pictures on social media. As a political actor, the meeting was good because it is an expression of what our leaders should be and should do. Mbabazi’s meeting with the President serves as a challenge to opposition leaders who meet the Head of State at night and then posture during day to show that they can never go to him. Whether the meeting was political, economic, social or otherwise, it is a good thing for Uganda and Ugandans to know we have good leaders. Those opposition leaders who do it in secrecy, why do it in the darkness and pretend during day? They must make their intentions clear because they now have a good example from the former Prime Minister.

Patrick Amuriat Oboi (FDC) president:
It wasn’t surprising (that Mbabazi met Museveni). I think that Mbabazi was acting under the influence of Museveni during TDA. The party has drawn a lot of lessons from the recent meeting to the extent that it will need to do thorough due diligence on any presidential hopeful seeking to make a coalition with the opposition ahead of the 2021 elections. We will move consciously on anybody. We need to look at their political history before making an alliance. As FDC we will not form an alliance based on excitement but on principles. You need to come to work with us with a clean hand but if you come contaminated with Museveni disease, we will not work with you.

Godber Tumushabe, former coordinator of TDA:
Those who think it is abnormal for a former presidential candidate to meet the President are misunderstanding the essence of leadership. Those processes must recognise that Museveni is a factor in any transition past him. Those processes must recognise that he has his own fears. Therefore, personally I don’t have any negative feeling about leaders talking to Museveni. They should be talking to him because he is the President but at the end of the day can they shape the narrative that helps Uganda go forward rather than our individual interests.

Miria Matembe Chairperson Board of Directors (CEDU):
For me if they say Mbabazi “yagarukayo” (has gone back), I don’t know and I wouldn’t be surprised because I didn’t see him quit. What Mbabazi was doing was saying ‘has it got to be Museveni alone?’ He was offering himself even within the NRM as an alternative candidate but when they chased him away he tried to do it outside NRM but not within any other party of opposition.

Mbabazi timeline

16/01/1949 – Born in Kabale
1981: Flees into exile in Sweden
1986 – 1992: Returns as head of External Security Organisation
1998 to 2001: Minister of State for Regional Cooperation
2001: Appointed Minister of Defence
May 1 2004: Attorney General and, Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs.
2006: Appointed Minister of Defence
February 24, 2009: Appointed Security Minister
May 24 , 2011: Becomes 9th Prime Minister
September 18 , 2014: Sacked as Prime Minister
2016: Challenges Museveni in Presidential poll
February 2016: Museveni and Mbabazi meet at the Serena Conference Centre for a televised presidential debate.
August 2018: Hosts Museveni at his home in Kololo for his daughter’s traditional marriage ceremony.
November 2019: Museveni appoints Mbabazi daughter to the Board of National Water and Sewerage Corporation.
December 31, 2019: Meets President Museveni at his farm in Kisozi, Gomba District.