You are dreaming if you think Group B is a walkover

The mere mention of the Cranes these days invokes dreams amongst us fans. There are 12 months of a qualification campaign yet to play but we would rather close our eyes, sleep, and wake up in Yaoundé 2021. These are very high expectations to carry around for a nation that has no Afcon trophy to their name.

The trouble though with dreaming is that its incompatible with reality. And our reality is that we will have to register at least 10 points. That means winning all our home games while gathering at least one point away in Ouagadougou, Blantyre or Juba.

The Burkinabe will be thinking the same. Malawi will in their quest for an upset look at their last visit to Namboole for inspiration. South Sudan too, everyone’s choice of a basket case, will appeal to familiarity for motivation.

So, don’t expect any point donations regardless of who we play or what we think of their abilities. That’s the truth. Everything else is a dream.

Nonetheless, the self-assurance propaganda is already everywhere. If we win in Ouagadougou, we are through. If we don’t, then woe unto those who visit Namboole. I want to emphasise instead how hard it is to play football by taking our opponents for granted. Do that, and we could be faced with a future that is thoroughly miserable but is no more than we would deserve.

Remember we have been down this sad road before - twice this decade, in 2011 (Kenya) and 2015 (Togo). And anyone who finds comparisons with the Cranes of eight years ago offensive should consider that those teams were easily more technically gifted than the current one.

The children of over-confidence will conveniently ignore that and instead point to our ranking, our showing in Egypt, and the solid core of the team. I won’t argue with that. The problem with confidence though is that once it takes hold, people start to use it as a new standard of measurement. This can bring too much pressure to bear on the team and the last thing we need is for the Cranes to be paralyzed by the fear of failing.

The Cranes need understanding instead. Lest we forget we have a new manager and are really a team in transition even if John McKinstry insists that he won’t fix what isn’t broken. By keeping everyone who was in Egypt he aims to maintain the momentum, but new campaigns produce new challenges and new managers alien ways, that require new adaptations. Only time can tell how long it all takes to bed in.

But there I go, preaching caution again. I guess all I am trying to say is that when you have been there and done that, it is at the most unlikely of times that you get ambushed and punished. If we realise and guard against this early enough, we can navigate the challenges that will inevitably pop up and appreciate that there are no dreams in qualification campaigns, only truths.