Big cities, old clubs and Afcon success

Poor Track Record. East Africa has only managed to represent at only 13 of the 32 editions, all the while failing to make it past the group stages on all but the solitary occasion when Uganda made the 1978 final. Our columnist delves deeper to understand the reasons why East African nations struggle.

Since inception, East Africa in its strictest form has never won an Africa Cup of Nations trophy.
It is only when you smuggle in Ethiopia and Sudan, whose sheer size mean they touch East Africa but whose souls are definitely North African, that you get a paltry return of two triumphs.

Even then, you would have to stretch way back to the 60’s and 70’s when the tournament was in its infancy and attracted less than 10 finalists.

Since then, however, East Africa has only managed to represent at only 13 of the 32 editions, all the while failing to make it past the group stages on all but the solitary occasion when Uganda made the 1978 final.
This had me looking to understand the reasons why East Africa struggles to deliver.
Do we lack the football education that produces the technical sophistication of Mo Salah? Or do we not eat enough yams that have produced physical specimen like Cameroonian giant duo of Michael Ngadeu-Ngadjui and Adolphe Teikeu Kamgang?

Substituting creativity
In order to avoid the convenience of substituting creativity for facts I went on a search for answers and I came across some interesting data that suggests there is a correlation between the urban population size, the age of a country’s football clubs, and the football success of a given nation.
Apparently, all African countries that have registered any continental success are home to the largest cities and the oldest football clubs on the continent.

Take Cairo for instance with its 15.2 million people. It is also home to two of Africa oldest football and most successful football clubs Al Ahly (108 years) and Zamalek (104 years) who between them have won 25 continental trophies. As a nation Egypt is also record Afcon winner.

True to form (with the exception of basket-case Mogadishu) the top 5 most populated cities in Africa are also home to some of the oldest and most successful football clubs on the continent. Notably, they are also located in North or West Africa whose federations account for 80% of all Afcon Trophies.

Back home in East Africa our cities are still small and our clubs relatively young with some of them like Express FC starting in 1957 half a century after El Ahly launched. The conclusion to be drawn from this is that a big urban population is more likely to give rise to successful football clubs which then feed successful National teams.

The Afcon 2019 edition therefore maybe special to East Africa because for the first time ever we are sending more than two representatives including debutants Burundi. But hardly any East African believes they will make it beyond the group stages. I guess what I am trying to say is that while football has its outliers, any East Africans dreaming of an African Cup of Nations triumph are well advised to wait another 40 years. Then Express and Gor Mahia will be over 100 years old and Dar es salaam or Nairobi will have as many people as Cairo.
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MBanturaki