How will new Cabinet look like?

Kampala. Will President Museveni announce a Cabinet reshuffle after his ongoing tour across the country?
This is where the speculation has now shifted to. For months before the Supreme Court ruled on the appeal concerning the removal of age limits for presidential candidates from the Constitution, it was said Mr Museveni needed to first see the court clarify his eligibility to run again in 2021, before he releases a new Cabinet list. He finally got the judgment in his favour.

Yet before the decisions of court became an issue, the speculation was that he first needed to see the age limit amendment through Parliament before he moved to shuffle his team.
It is more than three years since Mr Museveni swore in for this term on May 12, 2016, and nearly three years since he named the current Cabinet. He has only since fired Gen Henry Tumukunde and replaced him with Gen Elly Tumwine as minister for Security, in a move that was more about reorganising the security apparatus than politics.
Gen Tumukunde was sacked at the same time as former police boss Gen Kale Kayihura.

In the previous terms, it had become more or less a Cabinet tradition that Mr Museveni would shuffle his team midway through the five-year term, although the timings have sometimes varied depending on the political circumstances.
For this term, Mr Museveni has a multiplicity of issues to juggle, and he has taken his time. This has left ministers sitting at the edges of their chairs, not sure about what the future holds for them. On the other hand, individuals who feel they have earned the right to be named ministers have waited for the reshuffle for rather too long and, speaking to some of them, frustration has set in.
Sources say the President has been consulting over the shape of his next Cabinet for many months now, and that he has spoken to some of the people who may be affected in the next reshuffle.

Vice President Kiwanuka Ssekandi, sources say, months ago indicated to the President that he is prepared to retire and would not wish to be in the next Cabinet, and that Mr Museveni has toyed with the idea of appointing Speaker of Parliament Rebecca Kadaga in his place. But when the President tabled the idea to Ms Kadaga, the sources say, she indicated that she would prefer to stay on as Speaker into the coming term.
To stay on as Speaker beyond 2021, however, Ms Kadaga may have to first defeat Deputy Speaker Jacob Oulanyah, who was even ready to challenge her for the slot in 2016, but was restrained by the party as Ms Kadaga argued that she needed to be left to serve two terms, the same that her predecessor Ssekandi served before he was elevated to the vice presidency.

Regarding Mr Ssekandi’s reported desire to retire, it is not guaranteed, going by history, that President Museveni will release him from Cabinet at the time he would wish to leave. Former prime minister Kintu Musoke, for instance, always publicly said that he wished to retire from public office at the age of 60. He usually said he had segmented his life into three – the first 20 years for growing up; the next 20 years for struggling; and the final 20 years for ‘enjoying the fruits of my struggle’. Beyond the age of 60, Mr Musoke liked to say, ‘I will be prepared to retire and expire’. He, however, clocked 60 and Mr Museveni kept him prime minister for three more years until his wish was granted.
Prof Apolo Nsibambi, also a former prime minister, made a fuss about retiring from public life as early as 2004. Mr Museveni only granted his wish in 2011.

Where may the chips fall?
In constituting a new team with which Mr Museveni will face the voters in 2021, he has numerous considerations given the political realities and emerging challenges. And, going by the way he has done it in the past, it is healthy to expect that he will pay attention to the environment.

After falling out with former close colleague Amama Mbabazi and eventually sacking him in 2014, Mr Museveni set up his next Cabinet in a way that seemed to overcompensate Kigezi sub-region, where Mr Mbabazi hails from. The most immediate danger he faced then seemed to be defeat in Kigezi by Mr Mbabazi.
Dr Ruhakana Rugunda, from Kigezi, was as a result elevated to the position of prime minister, to replace his ‘friend’, Mr Mbabazi. From Kigezi still, Mr Museveni appointed Dr Chris Baryomunsi as State Minister for Housing.

Mr Baryomunsi is MP for Kinkizi East in Kanungu District, which borders Kinkizi West that was represented by Mr Mbabazi until 2016.
MR Philemon Mateke, 76, from Kisoro, became State Minister for Regional Affairs, while Mr David Bahati, the MP for Ndorwa West in Kabale, stayed in Cabinet as State Minister for Planning.
Mr Henry Banyenzaki, the only other person to be dropped out of Cabinet from Kigezi during the same period, had his position taken by Mr Herbert Kabafunzaki, also from Rubanda, the same place as Mr Banyenzaki. In the end, Kigezi sub-region ended up with more members of Cabinet than before.

But the times have changed, and Mr Museveni faces new and old political challenges. Dr Kizza Besigye remains a very active player, and Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), after the ouster of Gen Mugisha Muntu as party president and his eventual desertion of the party, has now been set up to work more in sync with Dr Besigye than before.
This has complicated a plan that Mr Museveni had reportedly hatched going into the 2016 election, in which a ‘government of national unity’ was looked at as a possibility.

Mr Museveni, sources say, had approached different political parties with the view of working with them in one Cabinet. Part of that plan was implemented when Mr Museveni named some Opposition figures from Uganda Peoples Congress (Lands Minister Betty Amongi), Democratic Party (State Minister for Youth Affairs Nakiwala Kiyigi), and Federal Alliance (Kampala Affairs minister Beti Kamya) in 2016.
The plan, however, was complicated by the failure to bring in FDC, although Mr Museveni has continued to pursue the possibility of naming top players from the big Opposition parties in his next Cabinet.
If this is a possibility, it is possible that he imagines that the closer to the next election the next Cabinet list is released, the better for him, for it would leave the jilted parties very little time to regroup.

Enter Bobi Wine
The other issue that sources say has complicated Mr Museveni’s naming of a new Cabinet is the entry into the political fray of musician Bobi Wine, the Kyadondo East MP, whose real name if Robert Kyagulanyi.
Mr Museveni has never faced an opponent like him before, and he perhaps needs more time to study how to approach him, and how Mr Kyagulanyi blends with the other players.

The dilemma that Mr Museveni faces is whether to focus on appointing players who Mr Kyagulanyi may snap up to buttress his ranks and those that work with Dr Besigye, for these two are the main challengers for power; or to reward his loyal troops that have served him ever so well.
Mr Museveni’s natural instinct has always been to blend the two, but he perhaps does not have enough slots to please the many players he has to juggle.
In his Cabinet, he has the three women he snapped from the Opposition that we have already listed, together with Mr Alex Onzima, a former member of FDC, who is a State Minister in the Vice President’s Office.
Kitgum Municipality MP Beatrice Anywar, formerly a member of FDC and now an Independent MP, has publicly indicated willingness to serve in Mr Museveni’s Cabinet.

In Mr Museveni’s calculations, those who work with say, the instinct is to keep members snapped up from the Opposition, if for nothing else, at least to build confidence in those who may want to cross over that they will be maintained in Cabinet if they do.
However, this did not hold true in the case of two former UPC stalwarts – Mr Aggrey Awori and Mr Omara Atubo, who were snapped up and only served in Cabinet for about two years before they were dispensed with.
On the part of loyal NRM members, there has always been frustration whenever the President has passed them over and appointed his erstwhile critics to top positions. Sources say that some of the players who feel they have served President Museveni well in recent times expect to be elevated.

In the queue
The sources say Kiboga Woman MP Ruth Nankabirwa, who is also the Government Chief Whip, openly talks about the need to be promoted in the next reshuffle, especially for her role in mobilising for the removal of age limits. In this connection, MP Raphael Magyezi, who moved the motion, also expects to appear on the Cabinet list, just like some other MPs.
It remains to be seen if Mr Museveni will have the age limit politics fresh in his mind when he finally releases a new Cabinet list, or futuristic considerations will have taken over.

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