Museveni may have to choose between oil and his presidency

West’s interests,’ Mr Timothy Kalyegira asked me: “What do you think is the most important thing or factor or action that has kept Mr Museveni in power for this long?” “Non-confrontation with the West’s (imperial) interests,” I answered.

The influence of international corporate power was captured very well in The Wild Geese (a movie based on a book by the same title by novelist Daniel Carney). Here is the plot of the movie.
An African president threatens to nationalise foreign companies. A group of international corporate financiers responds by plotting to remove the African president. They hire mercenaries to secure the release of an imprisoned former nationalist leader (whose removal they had financed).
They want the nationalist leader to replace the guy they had helped to put in power… After the mercenaries have sprung the nationalist leader from prison (and as usual leaving dead bodies in their wake), the African president caves in and rescinds his threat to nationalise foreign companies.
The corporate powers respond to the ‘goodwill’ of the African president by double crossing the mercenaries in the middle of the operation. #NakulabiraFilimu... And by the way, the book and movie is partly based on Zaire’s Mobutu and Moise Tshombe…
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Mr Timothy Kalyegira (yes, that one) asked me: What do you think is the most important thing or factor or action that has kept Mr Museveni in power for this long? ‘Non-confrontation with the West’s (imperial) interests,’ I answered. Yes, for the length of Rule Musevenia, Mr Museveni seems to have strategically avoided any confrontation with the West (particularly her imperialist interests). His politics has always been local sprinkled with stammers on pan-Africanism.
But with his possession of oil, an item that always attracts the full bullying character of the West’s greed, Mr Museveni should brace himself for what he had all along avoided: Confrontation with the West. Things could get as worse as having to choose between the oil and the presidency.
Ugandans may appreciate Mr Museveni’s very hard bargains with themultinational oil companies and his insistence on building an oil refinery on Ugandan soil. But if the oil companies’ refusal to pay Capital Gains Tax may negatively impact on the quick production of oil, Ugandans are most likely to say ‘let it (the tax) go’.
Which is exactly what President John Magufuli of Tanzania asked him: For the sake of the pipeline project, please let the $400m pass. Your hard bargain is stalling the project (whose legacy value is more than the $400m). Museveni may want to drive a hard bargain on matters oil, but he should not underestimate the power (and the bullying) of international corporate finance. And yes, Museveni should appreciate the influence international corporate muscle has on governments and political power plays in the West.
That’s why we advise that Museveni should treat President Magufuli’s advice seriously. I know Tanzanians; they saved my life twice. And there is a rumour that if their intelligence information had been heeded to, the life of two presidents may have been saved in 1994.
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Timothy Kalyegira also asked: What political constituency has Dr Kizza Besigye not mobilised enough? My answer: The West’s imperial interests.
Dr Besigye was recently reported to have met President Paul Kagame of Rwanda. It is very improbable that they met. But we know who Dr Kizza Besiye met and who he didn’t meet.
But what is more curious is Dr Besigye’s alleged recent meeting with ambassadors from the European Union. With all the focus on Bobi Wine, what could be responsible for the West’s new-found interest in Dr Besigye? What did they discuss? And then the rumour that someone is writing a policy paper on oil for Dr Besigye. Boy, Dr Besigye is more dangerous when he is quiet than when he is on the streets.