Al-Shabaab rains fire again, and leaves misery behind

Bernard Tabaire

What you need to know:

Ultimately. Either Amisom withdraws and effectively hands Somalia to al-Shabaab or somehow Amisom defeats al-Shabaab.

It was fire and death in Nairobi again.
Motivated by all manner of reasons, people just won’t stop killing fellow human beings.
For al-Shabaab, which claimed the “operation” on Tuesday, the primary reason is because Kenyan troops are battling its fighters in Somalia.
They want the Kenyans, and of course the Ugandans who were first to go in there, to get out so they can impose strict Islamist rule on the country.
After this latest attack, on a swanky hotel and office complex in a tiny part of Nairobi, the Kenyan establishment may want to think again about the country’s mission in Somalia.

My guess, though, is that the Kenyan government will dig in and resolve to show strength and might.
Al-Shabaab cannot force them out, and they cannot be seen to be surrendering to terrorists. All countries in similar situations say that.
The way al-Shabaab sees it, Kenya and Uganda and Burundi and all those countries fighting them in Somalia under the African Union (AU), have no business being there.

They see them as invaders and killers of Somali people. They are fighting to defend the fatherland, and in the process to serve a higher ideal — Allah.
In the name of pan-Africanism and other reasons, the countries with forces in Somalia say they are fighting to stop terrorists.
The positions are hardened. Things could be easier if the AU force, Amisom, had defeated al-Shabaab root and branch. That has not happened since Uganda stepped there in 2007.

So what gives?
Either Amisom withdraws and effectively hands Somalia to al-Shabaab or somehow AMISOM defeats al-Shabaab.
If neither of that happens decisively, the present dynamic is likely to continue: Amisom keeps going after al-Shabaab in the countryside and al-Shabaab keeps targeting Amisom forces, some civilian and political installations in Mogadishu, and civilian targets in countries such as Kenya and Uganda.

This is deadly dynamic. The ideal way out is to have an effective government in Mogadishu that can then take on al-Shabaab. Somali versus Somali. That is not happening, and doesn’t look like it will anytime soon.
Which means the continued stay of AMISOM, or some version of it. Which in turn means the attacks like we have seen again in Nairobi, this past week may continue.

The problem is that people lose lives, like those 14 who perished on Tuesday while going about their business — having nothing whatsoever to do with their country’s presence in Somalia.
These attacks take on an urgent and real meaning when someone you know gets caught up in the mayhem. In this latest atrocity, my former colleague at Daily Monitor, Ms Aggie Konde, was caught in the thick of it. A woman who has been on the up — going from Daily Monitor to Crown Beverages to the headship of NTV Uganda — Ms Konde got holed up for 12 hours before she was rescued.

Ms Konde is now the CEO of Msingi, a regional entity “building competitive, inclusive and resilient industries …” Her office is in the dusitD2 complex on 14 Riverside Drive (not far from the Uganda High Commission offices) that was attacked.
The story she recounts as carried in Daily Monitor on Thursday — trying to run, then turning back and hiding in the server room, then back to her office with nine of her colleagues — is riveting but nerve-wracking at the same time.
The thing is, this woman could have lost her life. For what?