Do those getting poorer know it has been 33 years of glorious NRM rule?
What you need to know:
Inequality. While it is cute to celebrate the decades-long reign of one man who is not a monarch, it is wise to think about the day after. In Uganda, the growing inequality amidst a fast-rising population could fuel real mayhem.
It is 33 years in — and actively counting. That’s a remarkable record of longevity for Mr Museveni as President. I doubt that we will have another person last as long in State House. In that regard alone, Mr Museveni has already made history.
Because he is still in power, several other elements of a “fuller” history of Uganda under the Museveni era are still falling in place.
Today, we can say that whereas Uganda is not failing, it is not coasting in space either. There is a disconcerting mark-time quality to things.
Uganda is of course in a much better place than in 1986 when Mr Museveni came in. Peace is now something taken for granted. We are more focused now on demanding more and better quality public goods and services, not finding which dense bush to hide in.
And because of the stability, and despite the corruption and cronyism, private people have the space to dream and to plan for the future of self and family. The key issue is how to guarantee the peace and stability to allow Ugandans flourish, regardless of politics, until kingdom come.
For now, Mr Museveni has a large part to play. Everything turns on this point: how Mr Museveni eventually leaves power.
Having stayed as President, potentially for 40 years, so much in Uganda’s public life will have come to be moulded firmly in his image. In the conduct of governmental affairs domestically, the approach is informal, populist, intolerant of dissent, and patronage-based.
On the foreign end, a reformed national army is the instrument used to advance Mr Museveni’s brand of pan-Africanism. Uganda punches above its weight, and this brings plenty of respectability to the country, but especially to the man.
On both fronts, all the power fully lies inside the fist of Maximum Leader Yoweri Museveni. Exit Mr Museveni suddenly and/or chaotically and a vacuum is created. Quite easily there could arise violent contestation to fill that vacuum.
The implications for such a contestation are what should keep awake those invested in Uganda’s fortunes. Peace and stability would return, eventually. But not after we have gone through more pain. Or indeed we could experience a version of what has befallen Zimbabwe or Libya and before that Ivory Coast after their long-serving leaders were edged out of power, killed, or simply died from natural causes.
While it is cute to celebrate the decades-long reign of one man who is not a monarch, it is wise to think about the day after.
In Uganda, the growing inequality amidst a fast-rising population could fuel real mayhem. The following paragraph from a 2017 Oxfam report on inequality in Uganda demands reflection: “Since 2002, Uganda’s economy has grown by at least 6 per cent annually, while GDP per capita has trebled in real terms since 1990. The country aspires to middle-income status, and has made major advances in a number of areas.
In 1992, nearly 56 per cent of the population lived below the national poverty line, but by 2014 this had fallen to 19.7 per cent. However, income inequality has increased significantly since the 1990s. Uganda has seen ‘growth with exclusion’, where relatively few have benefited from economic gains. The richest 10 per cent of the population enjoy 35.7 per cent of national income; while the poorest 10 per cent claim a meagre 2.5 per cent and the poorest 20 per cent have only 5.8 per cent. Those at the bottom are on a downward poverty spiral while those at the top are on an upward trend.”
Fix tourism, fix agriculture, fix energy, fix roads, fix corruption, fix XYZ. Do whatever, but do ensure inclusive growth. Otherwise, the day of reckoning will be when a messy change in power meets a desperate yet determined segment of the population. There is plenty to ponder as Mr Yoweri Museveni strolls into his 34th year in power this weekend.
Meanwhile, we live life and lose life. It happens to us all. On January 23, 2018, the jazz trumpeter and composer Hugh Masekela of South Africa died. On January 23, 2019, his friend, the Zimbabwean musician Oliver Mtukudzi, died. His music, which I enjoy so much, lives on. Hamba kahle, Mr Tuku.
And happy anniversary to NRM.
