DR Congo election may open economic prospects for Uganda

What you need to know:

Uganda’s fish. Congolese are the biggest foreign consumers of Uganda’s fish, which travels west in truckloads. Rwanda is the next big consumer of our fish. All of a sudden, Kenya looks like a hassle. The DRC is sitting on copper, cobalt, gold, silver, diamonds and other even more precious minerals like Coltrane (a key component of high tech, precision devices).

After years of cajoling, non-belief, frustration, DR Congo finally held a presidential election that is certain in one thing, ending the nearly 20-year rule of president Joseph Kabila, son of former president Laurent Desire Kabila. Desire Kabila was installed and later killed after the fall of president Mobutu, who had ruled the country for nearly 30 years.
Buffeted by massive natural resources - precious minerals, oil and gas, electricity (DRC is the home of the massive Inga Dam, one of the global 10), forestry, and natural drainage.

The DRC is the size of Western Europe. For years, the country has sat back wary of taking its role as the natural continental super power. Both South Africa and Nigeria who revel in that role have natural limitation. Nigeria, an acronym for petro-dollar mismanagement, seems it will be battling Muslim extremists in both the south and the north of the country for many years.

Home to 150 million people, Nigeria hasn’t yet launched a continental business enterprise of the reputation of say Ethiopian Airlines. Its current whiz-kid Dangote hasn’t overcome continental reservations about Nigerians and the skeptics are now led by President John Magufuli, who has clashed with him.

South Africa remains great, but it is disadvantaged by demographics. By 2050, Uganda’s population will be double that of South Africa. Weather, a shortage of basics like water and the maintenance of two South Africa’s - one led by the White population with their African agents, and the other, a typical third world version of deprivation has not served South Africa well. In terms of business, South Africa ranks much better than Nigeria; its companies like MTN have entered global tables. But because the South Africans have been having fun rather than babies, they will not come close to Brazil and they have peaked much faster than Russia and Japan, large populations which are rapidly ageing before realising their full economic potential.

By bordering the majority of sub-Saharan Africa, the DRC stands to benefit from natural interlinkages with Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Congo-Brazzaville, Angola, Gabon (a polity of another 200 million people.

The DRC is sitting on copper, cobalt, gold, silver, diamonds and other even more precious minerals like Coltrane (a key component of high tech, precision devices). The country’s vast lands are likely to be a major source of building materials as the use of steel is tempered by new materials like planted timber, bamboo, etc.

Congolese are the biggest foreign consumers of Uganda’s fish, which travels west in truckloads. Rwanda is the next big consumer of our fish. All of a sudden, Kenya looks like a hassle.

Joseph Kabila came from modesty, a son of a refugee. His potential successor, son of Etienne Tshikeddi, is another son of a former refugee. Congolese love a good life, dancing, partying strong, but they also have a strong humanism that helped prevent the total meltdown of the country after warlords backed by Uganda, Rwanda and the West tore up the country in the 1990s.

At international conferences, the Congolese are likely to arrive late, full of per diem, but lightly interested in anything else, least of all conference proceedings mostly conducted in English. Such slack would not take you far in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Rwanda.

The Catholics (perennial bad vote counters) are contesting the vote. They only have a prayer if they call our famous son, Dr Badru Kiggundu, to make their public case.

Dr Kiggundu established a ruthless reputation for declaring winners and losers without blinking an eye in his long tenure as chairman at Uganda’s Electoral Commission between 2002 and 2016.

Mr Ssemogerere is an Attorney-at-Law and an Advocate. [email protected]