2018; the year of thoughts about how and who is to succeed Museveni

NICHOLAS SENGOBA

What you need to know:

  • If that person becomes very obvious to the naked eye, of all and sundry, then the issue of who will succeed Museveni will no longer be a matter of speculation. It will be sorted once and for all.

To put Uganda’s politics in 2018 in just a line, one would say it was the year that spoke about the intricate issue that is the ‘Museveni succession.’
After the lifting of article 102 (b) removing the 75 year age limit for one to stand as a President, from the 1995 Constitution, it became clear that Yoweri Museveni; a permanent fixture on the political scene for over 30 years, was here to stay much, much longer.

His tight hold onto organs of State like the Legislature and the Judiciary, plus the de facto ownership of Uganda’s finances and the instruments of coercion, strengthen the above argument.
So as this reality of a longer term, wait sunk into the minds of the main political players and pretenders, in came a rising star; a one Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi a.k.a Bobi Wine. He became MP for Kyadondo North Constituency in June 2017.
He was followed fanatically by the youth and those who felt marginalized in society. His advantage, being like them (he is about 36,) sings popular love and rebellious music the majority of which plainly speaks truth to power.

He has also created an impression that he is from a humble background; a place termed as a ghetto; the slum, and the home of the hard knock plus the armies of the urban, unemployed, hungry, poor and struggling.
Bobi Wine put one foot in the political waters and his following increased by leaps and bound as he went campaigning for different opposition MPs across the country to win by elections for the opposition.
Bugiri Municipality which saw the victory of Hon. Asuman Basalirwa and Arua Municipality which recovered Hon. Kasiano Wadri from the limbo of electoral defeat were the highlights. Bobi Wine apparently became the opposition superstar poised to succeed Museveni once and for all.

Two things happened. Within the opposition a battle for supremacy ensued. The people in the opposition who for long had become exasperated with former FDC President Kiiza Besigye with his militant approach to Museveni saw an opportunity. They left the ‘Besigye side’ the contention which is a group which believes Museveni can only be succeeded by forcefully pushing him to the wall though not necessarily by the gun or the ballot box. This may be through mass uprisings like we saw with the Arab spring and now with Sudan. They are ready to negotiate through ‘gun boat diplomacy.’

The ones who walked out on Besigye and FDC and (initially) galvanized around Bobi Wine followed former Party President Maj Gen. Mugisha Muntu into a New Formation. Their calculation is that there might be an implosion under the weight of poor governance leading to state collapse in NRM. They would be chosen as a partner in a transition as the more sober minded opposition that will offer NRM as safe passage and landing without pursuing vengeance.

Note above that we said ‘initially’ because many of these who opted for the new formation plus Bobi Wine realized that the growth of Bobi Wine would not only ‘sweep’ Besigye aside but would also render them irrelevant if he became larger than life. They had been ahead of him in the political queue and suffered more than he had for the struggle.
Note those Ugandan terms ‘position in queue’ and ‘suffering in the struggle’ are ranks to be paid for with privileges of leadership and its trappings.

Slowly especially from DP, which was initially enthusiastic about Bobi Wine, the love waned. In fact in the Arua by election, DP which had been the crusader of ‘single opposition candidates’ against NRM went it alone like NRM. To cap it all, there is footage of Bobi Wine leading supporters to disrupt an FDC and a DP rally in Arua.

Many felt that power acquired from unexpected quick success had got to Bobi Wine’s head impressing it upon him that he was his own man.
But it was not only the opposition watching Bobi Wine. There were many within the ruling NRM watching these developments. For instance for long there have been noises about a ‘Muhoozi project.’
Those who speak about this project draw their strength from the fact that President Museveni’s son Maj Gen. Muhoozi Keinerugaba (44) has been promoted through the ranks at ‘breakneck speed,’ to follow in the footsteps of his father like many African statesmen have done.

Now the challenge many see in this angle is that unlike Bobi Wine who mingles with the everyday people and connects with them with his music and easy streetwise mannerisms, in case Muhoozi is interested (he says he is not,) Bobi Wine has a head start in as far as having armies of youth who are willing to be beaten for his cause for not so much money. Secondly Bobi Wine’s following is the result of his sweat and voice. Muhoozi is still largely seen as being in the shadow of his father.
Bobi Wine also has the advantage as a politician of traversing the country and testing the waters openly in the wider ‘national constituency.’ Muhoozi is restricted because of his being in the army and also his public confession that he is ‘not interested in succeeding his father.’

As the year drew to a close with most political actors positioning themselves on the succession question, DP, UPC and JEEMA decided to talk to Museveni’s NRM.
The picture at the talks had a great symbol of an empty chair for FDC. Many interpreted it as an attempt to further isolate FDC and draw near Museveni just in case of a negotiated settlement at some point.
As for Bobi Wine his link to the people and source of huge finance to fuel his political ambitions has been disrupted on several occasions. He is constantly stopped from performing by the police citing failure to follow guide lines and the law.

Because Bobi Wine will be pushed to insist on performing as a political thoroughfare to his ambitions, 2019 will make it clearer who is actually scared of Bobi Wine because as Wine pushes he will be countered more openly and with more violence (mis)uing State security organs.
If that person becomes very obvious to the naked eye, of all and sundry, then the issue of who will succeed Museveni will no longer be a matter of speculation. It will be sorted once and for all.
On this issue, 2019 is promising.
I wish you a Happy New Year full of blessings.
Nicholas Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues
[email protected]
Twitter:@nsengoba