Gabon: Why health of a dictator is a top national security secret

Nicholas Sengoba

What you need to know:

  • Succession question. Another very peculiar aspect is that dictators usually preside over run down healthcare systems to create and maintain a cynical power relation.
  • If you fall sick, you need to be in his good books to get expensive treatment paid for by the taxpayer in Europe or Asia. So you have to be compliant and well behaved.

Africa’s first major story of 2019 is the attempted coup in the tiny oil-rich West African State of Gabon. This country, which attained independence in 1960 from French colonial rule, has had only three leaders.
Leon Mba from 1960-67. Omar Bongo father of Ali Bongo from 1967-2009 (42 years broken down into seven terms!) Then Ali Bongo -son to Omar- from 2009 to date.
Gabon has a peculiar history. Leon Mba died in office after succumbing to cancer. Bongo Senior also passed on due to cancer. Now Bongo Junior, who is recuperating from a reported stroke in far-away Rabat, the capital city of Morocco, would have been recorded in history as losing power on a hospital bed as well.

Illness has its fascinating position in politics, especially the autocratic type, where a leader is ‘here to stay’ and whoever does not like it can go to hell.
In this arrangement, the all-powerful leader is the State. He owns the army which he often calls ‘my army.’ The man intimidates the Judiciary to the extent that his political desires are factored into most of their key judgments and pays off the legislature turning it into a laughable rubber stamp.

The challenge for such a leader is that they must remain forever physically in control, micro managing affairs and having a finger in every pie because there is no system or individual trusted with their power apart from a few relatives and an inner circle.
All allegiance is to him and the fortunes of his citizens are in his hands. If he does not like you, he has the power to bring your sources of income to a halt until you die or acknowledge his right to lord it over you.
So what happens is that people then sing his praises and fall over each other outdoing themselves to please and be associated with him. Rubbing him the wrong way may put one to economic and social ruin or six feet below.

So the genuine supporters and sycophants, turn coats and hangers on will vow to ‘die with someone’ in case they threaten the power of the leader. They will even comically warn the leader that if he makes a mistake of stepping down, they will force him back in office because he is the only one who can manage the country and save it from disaster.
In Zimbabwe, Grace Mugabe, wife of the 93-year-old visibly ailing Robert Mugabe, arrogantly claimed that the man would have to rule from the cemetery in case he passed on just before he was deposed. That is how silly things can get.

The greatest threat to all this is the health and wellbeing of the dictator as a person. Now as it happened in the case of Zimbabwe’s Mugabe, and Zaire’s Mobutu Sese Seko, when misfortune strikes and the leader ails, not only does this embolden his opponents, but acts as a catalyst for the rapid thinning of his power base.
His hitherto ‘massive support base’ will selfishly start searching for another pillar on which to position themselves and continue the ride on the gravy train.

This is because the sick man can no longer overawe by wearing his military uniform at press conferences, angrily slap the table and order things around. He can longer even do pushups in public or juggle a football to show that he is physically fit. People sense that he will not be around for too long. So the switching of allegiance begins in earnest causing a lot of uncertainty.
Another very peculiar aspect is that dictators usually preside over run down healthcare systems to create and maintain a cynical power relation. If you fall sick, you need to be in his good books to get expensive treatment paid for by the taxpayer in Europe or Asia. So you have to be compliant and well behaved.

Trouble is that when the dictator falls sick, he will also have to seek treatment abroad firstly to access better facilities. Secondly, it also helps to keep the matters top secret for he does not want a hospital cleaner to leak information that he saw the sorry state of the president painfully pooping in a bed pan.
That affects the aura he has built overtime as the vibrant alpha male in the kraal.
The disadvantage here is that he being the state and chief micro manager, his physical absence from the arena creates a vacuum. This leads to infighting as camps are created as a preemptive measure, just in case the sick man returns in a casket.

In case the sick man hangs on like Bongo Junior is doing, the tension that build up becomes so palpable that the one who blinks first loses. So one group is likely to strike to stay ahead like the Junior officers in Gabon have allegedly done.
That is why the illness of a dictator is a top national security secret. It can make or break a country. So you openly talk or write about it at your own risk and peril.

Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues. [email protected]
Twitter:@nsengoba