Omar al-Bashir: Uganda won’t do a Sudan very soon

Like a snake, Sudan’s Field Marshal Omar al-Bashir, 75, has bitten the dust after 30 years in power. The people rose up simultaneously, took to the streets, and surrounded his palace plus other sensitive military establishments. Sensing that matters were getting out of hand, the powerful military hastily intervened and replaced him with yet another one of their own – a soldier and another soldier in quick succession.

Predictably, those who take exception to Ugandan President Museveni’s 33 years and counting, in power, drew parallels and concluded with glee that ‘Uganda and Museveni was next.’This might sound good to the ear and the soul that wants change in Uganda, but I am afraid Uganda might not do a Sudan in the near future. The two situations are different.

The Sudanese revolution of 2019 was made possible mainly because Al-Bashir was severely weakened from fighting on many fronts. In Sudan, he had to contend with the Sudanese over whom he and his clique had loaded it over for three decades from 1989 when he came to power in a military coup. They run a despotic government characterised by nepotism, bigotry, religious extremism, violence, intolerance and corruption.

Then there was the powerfully decisive international community with whom Bashir and his cabal has been at loggerheads for decades. They were practically breathing down his neck for all sorts of reasons tending from promoting terrorism, to genocide, and mass murder.

The economic sanctions, travel bans, economic sabotage and, of course, the indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC), did not leave Bashir enough legroom to manoeuvre, travel and make new alliances, strengthen old ones and assert his influence. He was basically a weakened lame duck.

Uganda’s and Museveni’s case is very different. Like him or not, in the Great Lakes region, Museveni is currently the pointsman of the international community. He holds leverage on matters regarding peace and security in the Horn of Africa where he has distinguished himself as a formidable and dependable partner in the war against terror, by providing boots on the ground to fight the al-Shabaab terror network in Somalia.

The same applies to the volatile and shaky situation in the young nation of South Sudan where he holds sway like he did a quarter of a decade ago with the genocide and pacification of Rwanda. Uganda’s economy is open to unrestricted access to international investors of whatever colour, reputation, intention and standing. It provides a lot of hope to global capital with the ever increasing prospects and potential for oil and several other minerals.

Slips of the tongue by Cabinet ministers alluding to the fact that Uganda’s oil earnings (when they come) will ‘be kept in banks in the USA’ may not sound like good patriotic economics, but makes for secure political planning and bridge building for the perpetuation of the regime in Kampala.

In Kampala, the so-called international community finds an ally whose strengths and weaknesses are better known than those of the angels in the Opposition that are trying to unseat Museveni. So efforts to rise up against him from within may not find ready allies in the international community to support and finance them to help push Museveni yet that is very important.

The pictures coming out of Sudan of people on the streets defying the hitherto vicious military are quite deceptive. They do not tell the entire picture. For instance, we have to ask ourselves how people who became agitated because they could not afford bread, managed to stay on the streets where they were not earning a living for months. Who was keeping watch over their children at home? How did they manage to access food and water plus emergency healthcare during all this period in a failed state where hospitals are almost hospices?

Who organised and facilitated the huge trucks and manpower on the streets to mobilise blood donation for those injured in the protests? Why did the military and other security agencies this time round see the light and not murder and brutalise the protestors as was the wont in the past?

Does this soft approach lend credence to the reports from The Middle East Eye, that Sudan’s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) Salah Gosh met the head of Mossad (Israeli Intelligence) Yossi Cohen in February to plan for the ‘leadership of Sudan after the fall of Bashir?’ Did this come with huge financing and planning, which is the backbone that helped sustain such a huge and enduring effective protest? Who motivated and paid the members of the Sudanese Professionals Association to provide medical, legal, counselling and other services that are useful in the day to day activities of citizens?

The Opposition in Kampala that has been excited by the news coming out of Sudan and engaging in wishful thinking that Uganda is next should reflect on the past failed attempts at mass protests. The reason why Walk-to-Work and others started with promise and then faded away was because the people had to deal with the bread and butter issues they encounter every day. Before you go on the street, the protesters must be assured of food, medicine, shelter and legal services as they encounter the government.

Simply shouting defiant and fierce slogans will only lead people to the gunman’s fires and end in frustration. Uganda is not yet Sudan.

Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political
and social issues. [email protected]
Twitter:@nsengoba