Will power export help govt deal with surplus electricity? 

The electricity sub-sector forms a solid bulk of Uganda’s export earnings, contributing some incremental returns and providing a good buffer for a sector that has, over the years, produced more than what can be consumed internally.

Data from the Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) shows that by the end of the second half of 2024, Uganda’s installed capacity stood at 2,048.1 megawatts, a 63.7 percent rise from 1,251 megawatts in 2019.

However, of the 2,048.1 megawatts, less than 1,000 megawatts, or 48.8 percent (or lower), is consumed locally per day, which leaves a huge surplus of more than 1,000 megawatts.

Data from the International Monetary Fund indicates that across East Africa, Uganda has one of the lowest per capita electricity consumption of just 83 kilowatt-hours, which, when compared with Kenya’s 172 kilowatt-hours and Tanzania’s 113 kilowatt-hours, is not enough to match production. 

Thus, with the country having substantial surpluses – and still growing – could the export route mop up what is not used locally?

In the last 10 years, according to data from the Central Bank, Uganda’s electricity exports have more than tripled since 2015.

For instance, Bank of Uganda indicates that electricity exports have grown from an average of 138,816 megawatt-hours in 2015 to 493,163 megawatt-hours, representing a compound average growth of 28.14 percent.

Data also indicates that electricity exports have been doubling at least every three years in the last 10 years, growing from 138,816 megawatt-hours in 2015 to 264,878 megawatt-hours in 2017, before doubling again to 443,896 megawatt-hours in 2022.

Current exports have remained within the growth range, with slight increases to 493,163 megawatt-hours in 2024.

Growth in value 

Data from Bank of Uganda indicates that foreign exchange from electricity exports has doubled in the period, growing by 58.36 percent. 

Electricity contributes at least 0.57 percent to total export earnings, which during the year to June 2024, stood at $7.94b, according to Bank of Uganda.

In terms of real value, foreign exchange income due to electricity has grown from $24.43m in 2015 to $45.29m.

However, whereas there has been substantial growth in terms of export volumes, the value growth has remained slow or even stagnant.

For instance, according to data from Bank of Uganda, in 2015, Uganda exported 138,816 megawatt-hours of electricity worth $24.43m. However, the value in 2024 was only $45.29m, even when the country's exports more than tripled to 493,163 megawatt-hours. 

Asked why there was a mismatch in the growth of volumes and value, ERA chief executive officer, Eng Ziria Tibalwa Waako, said this was because of competition, especially from Ethiopia, which is exporting cheaper electricity to the same markets Uganda exports to.

“We are competing for the same market with Ethiopia and Tanzania, which equally have abundant, cheap power. The price has to be acceptable, and it must outcompete the others,” she said, noting that the dynamics of pricing have kept returns lower even where there is a substantial increase in export volumes. 

Reason for the growth 

Uganda’s growth in electricity exports has largely been due to an increase in demand, especially from Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and recently DR Congo and South Sudan.

Kenya remains heavily reliant on Uganda’s electricity to fill its deficit, which has resulted from a decline in the country’s installed capacity.

According to the Economic Survey 2025, Kenya’s electricity imports from Uganda and Ethiopia rose by a combined 66.7 percent in 2024, with the country deepening its reliance on the two countries to stabilise its power supply.

Data indicates that imports from the two countries rose to 1,532.6 gigawatt-hours in 2024, from 919.3 gigawatt-hours, at a time when the country’s total installed capacity declined to 3,235.5 megawatts from 3,243.6 megawatts.

But beyond Kenya, Uganda has been seeing an increase in electricity export demands from DR Congo, Tanzania, and South Sudan.

Data from ERA indicates that Uganda exports 132 kilovolts to Tanzania, which are mostly consumed in the north mining areas where the Tanzanian high voltage grid does not reach.

Uganda also has cross-border power exchanges of 33 kilovolts and 11 kilovolts low voltage supply to South Sudan and DR Congo, respectively.

power exports and income since 2015

Regional power auction 

Thus, with more investments in the energy subsector, it is prudent that government looks outwards rather than inwards as it pushes to grow local consumption, which currently stands at about 1.7 million Ugandans or about 20 percent.

This will largely be supported by a regional move in which East African countries are planning to create a power auction that will allow at least 13 member countries to float their surplus electricity for onward consumption.

In February, the Eastern Africa Power Pool indicated that it planned to publish regulations to govern trade in electricity.

The regulations would allow member countries, which include Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, Libya, DR Congo, Djibouti, Rwanda, Sudan, Egypt and Burundi, to among others, lock electricity prices for 24 hours, countries with excess power to submit price offers, while those with deficits table bids and allow countries to buy and sell electricity without relying on bilateral agreements.

Dr Okasai said Uganda’s increase in electricity export has been deliberate as the country prepares to tap into the regional auction market.

“We are strengthening connectivity across the region, enhancing our connections to Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and potentially Egypt. We want to trade electricity, leveraging our diverse energy sources. Ethiopia has significant hydro power, while Uganda is a reliable energy source," he said.

Uganda, he said, has also been benefiting from a framework for trading electricity among the 13 East African countries, with each country's allocation depending on demand, connectivity to the exporting country, and the amount of surplus energy available.

During the period, Dr Okasai indicated that Uganda has seen an increase in electricity export earnings from Kenya and Rwanda.

Uganda is currently strengthening its connection to South Sudan by constructing a 400 kilovolts line to deliver power in bulk, enhancing its electricity supply to Kenya by upgrading the line from 132 kilovolts to 400 kV, and building and strengthening supply to Tanzania with a 400 kilovolts line from Masaka through Mutukula to Bukoba.

This setup, Dr Okasai said, will enable Uganda not only to supply electricity but also to import power in case of deficits, ensuring that the country doesn't suffer power shortages.

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