A section of Walukuba-Masese Road, leading to Masese Landing Site in Jinja South Division, Jinja City. PHOTO/DENIS EDEMA
The next fiscal year 2025/2026 spending plan starting in July appears intently designed to appease, at least on paper, interest groups from the youth, elderly, artistes (musicians) and personnel of the security services, and generally keep the electorate happy ahead of the upcoming election campaigns.
Mr Matia Kasaija presented the budget, his ninth as Finance Minister, under the theme: “Full Monetisation of the Ugandan Economy through Commercial Agriculture, Industrialisation, Expanding and Broadening Services, Digital Transformation and Market Access” last Thursday.
Notably, the budget theme has remained unchanged for the last three fiscal cycles: 2022/2023, 2023/2024, and 2024/2025, which the Finance ministry spokesperson, Mr Jim Mugunga, said “emphasises consistency in deepening interventions” as opposed to piecemeal approaches.
Mr Mugunga also objected to the label of a “populist budget”— focused on immediate public appeal, ahead of the upcoming election campaigns, through among others, social spending increases—saying: “I would not call it a campaign tool, but rather it is a demonstration of remaining true to the agenda of the government.”
He added: “Two documents guide the agenda of the government: the National Development Plan (now in its fourth edition), which offers overarching policy direction, and the ruling party's manifesto. The manifesto is the social contract between the party in power and the people [of Uganda] who vote[d] for it.”
In his budget speech, Mr Kasaija waxed lyrical about the gains made in the fiscal year ending, including an increase in the number of people living within a five-kilometre radius of a health facility to 91 percent from about 80 percent in 2010/2011; 81 percent of parishes now have government-aided schools; and, decrease in poverty levels to 16.1 percent from 24.5 percent in 2010/2011, coupled with reduction in the subsistence economy reduced to 33 percent from 69 percent in 2010/11, which he said have “strengthened the resilience of the economy.” “Uganda is becoming a more equal society.
The results of the National Household Survey released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics last month show that income inequality has declined significantly in the past four years,” he said.
On the whole, the new budget has grown in scope and size— to Sh72 trillion next financial year—despite weighty challenges like fiscal indiscipline, bloated administration, endemic corruption that has become the jet fuel of the clientele patronage system, and poor budget execution, which has constipated service delivery across the country manifested through among others, Kampala’s broken roads, cancer patients travelling long distances to sleep on the floors of Uganda Cancer Institute, to infrastructure project overruns.
A November 2021 Ministry of Finance report on trends and status of public service delivery prepared for the Office of the President, highlighted the relative improvement in service delivery across the different sectors beleaguered by cross-cutting challenges such as poor planning, non-prioritisation, continuous stalling of infrastructural projects and shoddy works, misalignment in spending, and lack of a clear holistic approach towards delivery of well-coordinated outputs.
Stark contrasts
In the next budget, Mr Kasaija and his policy wonks allocated Shs11.44 trillion, up from Shs10.216 trillion, to social services spending in health; education; social protection/poverty alleviation initiatives such as Youth Livelihood Programme (YLP), Uganda Women Entrepreneurship Programme (UWEP) and Social Assistance Grants for the Elderly Programme (SAGE) targeting the youth, women, and elderly, respectively; and, water and sanitation.
The health sector received a big boost of Shs5.87 trillion to, among others, functionalize health centre IVs and strengthen primary health and community health services, and Shs5.04 trillion for education to continue to provide free education under Uganda Primary Education (UPE) and Universal Secondary Education (USE). On paper, spending in both sectors has increased significantly over the years but on the ground the picture is dingy.
A big chunk of the health spending goes to the Health ministry, and National Medical Stores (NMS) to procure essential drugs. However, reports abound week in, and week out of health workforce shortages, coupled with a laughable emergency care and ambulance system, and persistent drug stockouts.
Private pharmacies in the environs of public health facilities are the new normal. In his budget speech at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds, Mr Kasaija dedicated the budget “to the women and mothers of this nation.”
“The budget has provided funds to improve your health, to ensure that your children are born in safe hands, are immunised, sleep under a mosquito net, drink clean, safe water, and are educated in a nearby school for free. The budget has also allocated billions to support your businesses, however small, to graduate into sustainable businesses, he noted.
Nonetheless, the World Health Organisation (WHO) indicated in April that in rural areas, too many women still give birth without skilled health attendants.
“Over 30 per cent of women in Uganda still deliver at home alone, or in the presence of an unskilled birth attendant, with many choosing to come to the hospital after experiencing a complication. Too many babies don’t survive their first month. Progress must continue through a stronger health system that counts on more trained staff, deeper community engagement, and a focus on quality, compassionate care.”
According to WHO, Uganda’s maternal mortality ratio stands at 189 per 100,000 live births, with one (1) in 66 lifetime risk of maternal death. The neonatal mortality rate has decreased from 27 to 22 per 1,000 live births but remains above the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of 12 per 1,000 live births.
Teenage pregnancies contribute significantly to mortality, with one (1) in 4 girls aged 15-19 pregnant or already mothers, accounting for 20 percent of overall maternal deaths. The Ministry of Water and Environment’s 2023 data showed that only 33 million Ugandans had access to safe water services, while at least 14 million lacked access to clean and safe water. Women and children are mostly affected.
“No silver bullet”
In education, the latest Auditor General’s report paints an even grimmer picture. Inadequate number of teachers at primary schools, pit latrines in 45 local governments had been condemned and were not in use, thus affecting accessibility by the pupils and teachers, while classrooms in 54 local governments had old and dilapidated structures. In 811 schools in 103 local governments, the classroom-to-pupil ratio stood at 1:101 meaning one classroom for every 53 learners, and in 741 schools in 92 local governments, the pit latrine-to-pupil ratio was 1:180 meaning 1 pit latrine for every learner.
Add to the mix, inconsistencies in the enrolment of pupils on which taxpayers’ money is spent attributed to among others, duplicate entries that distort the integrity of the data on the education management information system (EMIS) and lack of tools like smart phones computers to facilitate the input and update of data on the EMIS, capacity gaps among the head teachers of primary schools who are responsible for updating information in the EMIS system and frequent movements in pupils’ numbers that are not updated on EMIS.
“A review of 136 local governments indicated that out of 111,101 primary school teachers on the approved structure, 85,073 (77 per cent) teachers were in post, leading to a staffing gap of 26,028 (23 per cent) teachers. In a sample of 717 schools in 91 local governments, I compared the Ministry of Education Standard of teacher-to-pupil ratio of 1:53 and established that the average ratio in the inspected schools was 1:75 which was below the standard and implies that the teacher-pupil interaction was not conducive for effective learning,” the audit report notes.
Asked about this contradictory state of affairs—increase in budget vs poor service delivery—Mr Mugunga argued the challenge of social services will remain because those targeted are moving in terms of numbers. “The challenges cannot be fixed by a silver bullet. They deserve consistency in funding and early warning to deal with the issues at source,” Mr Mugunga said at the weekend.
As per Mr Kasaija’s budget speech, by the end of this month a total of Shs3.3 trillion will have been transferred to the 10,589 parishes across the country as part of the government’s latest poverty alleviation anti-dote, the Parish Development Model (PDM).
Another Shs1 trillion was allocated in the new budget. During President Museveni’s recent PDM tours, his press team shared images of him visiting successful beneficiaries. In other instances, he was visiting beneficiaries with hardly anything to show but a few poultry, goats, and cows. Meanwhile, the PDM initiative was conceptualised alongside a secretariat for monitoring and supervision domiciled in the Ministry of Local Government.
The Secretariat, according to the plan, would work with the appointed focal people—production/commercial/communication officers— at the respective local governments to keep a keen eye on the benefiting groups. The staff at the secretariat in Kampala last worked during the first quarter of this financial year. They draw salaries but hardly step into office due to a lack of a budget for the supervisory work, according to insider accounts.
Elections splash
Similarly, billions sunk in other revolving funds such as the Youth Livelihood Programme (YLP) and the Uganda Women Entrepreneurship Programme (UWEP) have gone to naught. The latest Auditor General details the poor recovery of funds; of the previous year’s balance of Shs131 billion, only Shs8 billion or 6 per cent was collected during the year under review, “indicating low recovery, thus undermining the objectives of the programmes.
This was attributed to, among others, the disintegration of groups that were advanced the programme funds, which could not be traced and most of the business enterprises had since collapsed. Mr Kasaija, further, also dedicated the budget to the: “elderly, persons with disabilities, and other vulnerable persons, wherever you are in this country, the budget offers several social safety nets not only to shield you from poverty but also to ensure that you can be productive and begin to live a decent life.”
The budget allocated Shs404.9b for social protection programmes like YLP, UWEP, and Social Assistance Grants for Empowerment (SAGE) which provides a monthly stipend of 35,000 to older persons. Currently, SAGE supports 307,123 persons aged 80 and above. In 2018, the government committed to reviewing the eligibility age from 80 to 65, but budgetary constraints stalled the process, leaving many elderly persons living in pitiable conditions.
Mr Kasaija also committed Shs9.9 trillion for the security sector, and further dedicated the budget to: “The gallant men and women in uniform, who are serving in the UPDF, in the Uganda Police, in the Uganda Prisons, and in the intelligence services, this budget contains money to improve your welfare and capabilities. Continue to serve your country and keep it as safe as you have always done. Happy belated Heroes Day.”
The poor remuneration and pitiable living conditions of personnel of security forces; UPDF, Uganda Police, and Uganda Prisons Services had been a long-standing concern that fell on the deaf ears of the government until the February 2016 General Elections, when four-time presidential candidate Dr Kizza Besigye, in jail since last November on treason charges, polled overwhelmingly in some barracks than the incumbent.
During campaigns for the last presidential elections, the National Unity Platform candidate Robert Kyagulanyi promised to increase the salaries of security officers, whereby a low-ranking soldier or police officer will be earning a minimum of Shs1 million monthly. Since then, the welfare of security forces has been frequently mentioned among the top priorities.
Speaking of the election campaigns that are heating up, next year’s budget included a Shs60b package for the creatives industry to, among others, generate a revolving fund, “acquire a home for you, and enact a copyright law to protect your intellectual property”.
This industry ordinarily encompasses music and arts, culture and tourism, among others. The emergence of musician turned politician, Mr Kyagulanyi as a formidable force in Opposition politics against President Museveni’s 39 year-reign polarised the creative industry, especially musicians—powerful agents of change.
Campaigns fever
As such, the government has since 2019 employed the carrot and stick approach on the creative industry members. Those who openly profess support for the ruling NRM party, including appearing at campaign events, enjoy many favours from the government but at the high risk of being disavowed by the public.
Those seen or believed to be on Mr Kyagulanyi’s side have been tormented. Others are struggling with neutrality, while many have seized the opportunity of cashing in by trekking to Gulu to meet the chief coordinator of the Operation Wealth Creation, Gen Salim Saleh, to appeal for assistance so as not to join the opposing camp. Last December, Gen Saleh publicly expressed displeasure about the artistes’ begging culture on account of lacking cohesion, organisation and training.
“Because when it is morning, I am meeting Buchaman (Mark Bugembe), in the afternoon I am meeting Ragga Dee (Daniel Kazibwe), in the evening I am meeting Manya Odongo Romeo. So, when will I work on the other Kirabira there? You're wasting my time.
I have told you that I am finished with you,” Gen Saleh, also President Museveni’s young brother, remarked at a trade fair attended by many musicians in Gulu City. Conversely, Mr Kyagulanyi, whose stage name is Bobi Wine, has variously called fellow artistes “beggars,” drawing their ire. Owing to these differences and the State’s divide-and-rule policy, the musicians themselves are divided into two camps, the Uganda National Musicians Federation led by Mr Edrisah “Kenzo” Musuuza, and the Uganda Musicians Association led by “Cindy” Sanyu.
The vice chairperson of the National Culture Forum, the apex body for all associations in the creative industry, Mr Charles Batambuze, argued that the budget allocation in next year’s budget has been one in the making for a while. “Nearly half of that money is planned for a revolving fund to help artists, performers, and creative entrepreneurs access affordable financial support that suits their needs.
This move reflects priorities in the Fourth National Development Plan and the draft updated Uganda National Culture Policy 2025, both of which highlight the importance of investing in the creative economy, creating jobs, and supporting institutions,” he said. Mr Batambuze watered down the claim that the latest budget line is to propitiate the creatives industry from opposition, saying: “That’s a common idea, but the facts don’t quite support it. We had had elections before with a lot of artiste involvement, yet creatives have never had a dedicated budget line.”
Four days last month, after the NUP signed MoUs with hundreds of Teso war claimants—the majority elderly— to vote for Mr Kyagulanyi during the next presidential polls, Vice President Jessica Alupo rushed to the area on May 30 to underline the government’s commitment to pay the bill. Shs80b was spelt out in the new budget for war claims for Teso and other sub-regions.
BOBI WINE’S INFLUENCE
During campaigns for the last presidential elections, the National Unity Platform (NUP) candidate Robert Kyagulanyi promised to increase the salaries of security officers, whereby a low-ranking soldier or police officer will be earning a minimum of Shs1 million monthly. Since then, the welfare of security forces has been frequently mentioned among the top priorities.
Speaking of the election campaigns that are heating up, next year’s budget included a Shs60b package for the creatives industry to, among others, generate a revolving fund, “acquire a home for you, and enact a copyright law to protect your intellectual property.” The creative industry ordinarily encompasses music and arts, culture and tourism, among others.
