Climate change threatens to wipe out Uganda coffee

“If there is someone I hated most, is the scientist. Scientists have brought us tears. They have manufactured all sorts of things including pests, diseases and herbicides that are wiping out most of our crops. In central Uganda, we depend on coffee for livelihood but the crop is gradually drying up,” Mr Yeko Musoke, a farmer in Ggala Village, Kakiri Sub-County, said of the poor performance of his coffee plantation.“Scientists introduced new coffee varieties, which they claimed are resistant to pests and diseases and high yielding, but again the varieties are failing us. They are labour intensive, prone to diseases and dry up,” he added.

Although Musoke blames the current coffee failure to “acts” of scientists, experts look to climate change as the biggest threat. Scientists say with the increasing global temperatures, the future for Uganda’s coffee looks grey. Dr Africano Kangire, head of the Coffee Research Centre, Kituza says, if as predicted, temperatures increase by two degrees centigrade, it will strain the crop past its margins, leaving it to grow in mountains and high altitudes like south western and at the tip of Mt Elgon. “It will reduce Uganda’s coffee production by 80 per cent,” Dr Kangire says, adding, “Coffee will be restricted to only high altitude areas as the crop’s suitable climate migrates into the foothills of Mountain Rwenzori and Elgon. This means temperatures in the central region will be higher for the crop causing its exit since coffee is sensitive to water stress,” he says. Dr Kangire says hotter temperatures would also expose the crop to more pests and diseases.

“Diseases such as coffee leafrust, which was known to be found below 1,500 metres above sea level is now attacking coffee grown at 1,800 metres and we attribute that to climate change,” he explains. According a meteorological report released in 2007, the average temperature in Uganda’s coffee-growing area was standing at about 25 degrees centigrade then. But Mr Paul Isabirye, Assistant Commissioner Department of Meteorology says, due to global warming, temperatures could have slightly risen since the report was issued. Meanwhile, the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that world temperatures will rise by between 3.6 to 7.2 degrees centigrade in the next 20 years, with even greater temperature increases in the tropics. The rise will primarily be due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels.

Coffee is among Uganda’s leading crop export contributing 60 per cent to the GDP. According to Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), coffee pulled about $310m (over Shs61.6bn) into the country’ coffers last year. Globally, coffee is the second traded commodity next to oil. Since the crop is sensitive to water stress, farmers have started feeling the pinch. Mr Christopher Mugabi says erratic rains and frequent droughts have affected the crop’s productivity. “If the coffee beans face a lot of sunshine and less rain, the beans becomes smaller and deliver lower yields,” Mugabi, a resident of Njeru village in Kituntu sub-county, Mpigi district, says.

“We are worried about the temperature, but we can’t do much because we have limited resources,” he adds. Effects of change in climate is also expressed in the eleventh monthly report for the coffee year (October-September 2009/10) released by UCDA this month. Recorded figures show coffee volumes exported from Uganda to different destinations during that time dropped by 12.0 per cent. The report says the continued fall in robusta performance was on the account of the climate change characterised by long dry spells that usually coincide with bean formation and development in the robusta growing areas.

Looking for solutions
According to Dr Kangire, they are carrying research on local varieties to identify those that can withstand drought. “But more adoptive research is needed and this time using biotechnology to develop varieties more resistant to climate extremes, pests and diseases,” Dr Kangire says. “With biotechnology, we can move much further and faster because what usually takes more than 10 years to breed in the kind of technology we apply today can be done in three years. Through the same technology, it is also easier to improve on the yields and quality.” he adds.

Uganda, believed to be the origin of robusta coffee worldwide and Africa’s second-largest producer of coffee, after Ethiopia, is currently struggling to revamp its coffee sector which dramatically lessened in 1993, when the country was hit by the coffee wilt. The disease, which was first identified in Bundibugyo District and then spread like bush fires all over the country, reduced the country’s coffee production by 50 per cent by 2002.“About 50 per cent of coffee trees were destroyed and the country’s production which was standing at four million bags annually dropped to only two million bags,” Dr Pascal Musoli, a coffee breeder says.

About 15 years ago, Uganda was producing the same amount of coffee as Vietnam. But now Vietnam produces 20 million bags of coffee, while Uganda has stagnated on three million bags. Moreover, the country is targeting to increase its production to four millon bags by 2014, but experts say the figure is still below the country’s potential. According to scientists, Uganda’s coffee varieties are better than those of Vietnam and once the sector is supported well in terms of funding, the country has potentials to take-over Vietnam.“We have to raise our target much higher. If things were flowing normally the four million bags are so little to a country like Uganda,” Dr Musoli says.

However, though Corec has brighter future plans which can reduce farmers’ problems to a substantial degree, the institute is limited by resources to implement them. The centre has partially released seven coffee wilt resistant varieties in 2007, but the crops multiplication is sluggish due to limited resources. Despite all, however, since coffee is an enterprising crop, experts are now viewing a possibility of developing varieties that can withstand higher temperatures and new pests and diseases.