2021 election: Endgame for the old guard?

When you move around Kawempe South, the constituency, which is bordered by Kampala Central, Rubaga North, Kawempe North and Nansana municipality, Richard Sebuliba Mutumba’s posters are few and in certain places non-existent. 
If posters are to go by, the dormant forces in Kawempe South Member of Parliament (MP) race are Mubarak Munyagwa, the incumbent, who owes allegiance to the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), and Bashir Kazibwe Mbaziira of the National Unity Platform (NUP).

Despite his evidently diminishing power, before Mr Munyagwa toppled Sebuliba in 2016, he had represented Kawempe South for three straight 5-year terms having wrestled the constituency away from National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) Meddie Ssozi Kaggwa in 2001. Mr Kaggwa passed on last year while serving as the chairman of Uganda Human Rights Commission. While in Parliament, Mr Sebuliba served on the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) as well as being the shadow minister for Works and Infrastructure Development in 2011.
  
Old wine, new bottles
Just like in the rest of the country, Mr Sebuliba, 60, is among the several politicians who are struggling to rebrand in a bid to convince an electorate that is increasingly young.  
“We have a big number of young people and our politics seems to favour them,” says Prof Sabiti Makara, a lecturer at the Department of Political Science at Makerere University. “It is very easy for them to tell a veteran politician that, ‘you had your time; this is our time.”       
The politics and economics of Kawempe South, a predominately Muslim constituency, have not changed that much ever since Mr Sebuliba lost his seat four years ago.  It is still an opposition bastion dotted with poverty-stricken slum such as Bwaise, Mulago, Katanga and Kazo-Angola where flood during the rainy season are normal. But young people think though Mr Sebuliba is a member of the Opposition, they need a more energetic and defiant voice to push back against the ruling NRM.  
Mr Sebuliba, who was conquered by Mr Munyagwa by a difference 10,000 votes, attributed his loss to what he termed as the FDC wave of 2016.
 
“I think now people have realised waves do not work and they will vote for me this time,” Mr Sebuliba said in a recent interview.  Indeed, during the 2016 campaigns, Mr Munyagwa alligned his campaign with that of then FDC presidential candidate Dr Kizza Besigye, which was dubbed as “defiance” campaign. This resonated with the regime malcontents who did not buy into Mr Sebuliba’s gentleman’s politics.  
       
Though he blames his defeat on the “FDC wave” of 2016, followers of politics in Kawempe South insist that Mr Sebuliba’s political downfall was long coming.  During the 2011 elections, for instance, Mr Sebuliba’s waning power was on display when he edged out NRM’s Twaha Najja with a difference of just 244 votes. Mr Najja then asked for a recount but the courts rejected his case.

Addiction
“Politics is so addictive,” Prof Makara offered in trying to explain why perhaps Mr Sebuliba is trying to make a comeback “Some people can’t live without it. They are used to being in positions of influence with money.  The 2021 election doesn’t seem promising for Mr Sebuliba because, besides FDC, there has been the rise of NUP, which has taken advantage of cracks in DP, to which Mr Sebuliba belongs, to position itself as a viable alternative within the opposition. NUP has basically filled a void that was left by DP. They have attracted the young people.” Prof Makara said. “Many DP politicians are going to struggle in the coming elections.”

The DP politician is not the only veteran struggling to make a comeback. In Rubaga South, John Ken Lukyamuzi, the President General of the Conservative Party (CP), is tussling it out with 12 other contestants to recapture the seat he lost in 2016 to comedian-turned politician Kato Lubwama. 

Before he was toppled, Mr Lukyamuzi was the undisputed kingmaker of Rubaga South politics since he had represented the constituency for three terms starting way back in 1996. He would have made four terms hadn’t the Inspector General of Government (IGG) kicked him out of Parliament in 2005 and forbade him to stand in the 2006 general election on grounds that he had not declared his wealth in accordance with the Leadership Code Act, 2002. 

Yet again, Mr Lukyamuzi used this setback as an opportunity to show how he had a grip of the politics in this constituency. Mr Lukyamuzi dispatched his daughter Suzan Nampijja whom described as “a dangerous substitute” and she effortlessly won the seat.

 Mr Lukyamuzi, who for dramatic effect took on the moniker Ken the Man, won back his constituency in 2011, after the Supreme Court trashed the IGG’s directive that had barred him from elective politics. But the days when the name Lukyamuzi was synonymous with Rubaga South seem to be over.  
Mr Lukyamuzi, according to several voters interviewed for this story, has struggled to gain traction in this election.  
“Politics is so dynamic. It changes quickly,” Habib Buwembo, one of the candidates in the Rubaga South race, tried to explain Mr Lukyamuzi’s struggles to regain his seat. 

“The young voters now seem not to know him.  It seems he did what he could and now the society has moved on.” If he is to regain his seat, Mr Lukyamuzi has to beat favourites such as DP’s Eugenia Nassolo, NUP’s Aloysius Mukasa and FDC’s Buwembo, which could be an uphill task.  According to sources, Mr Lukyamuzi was not intent on standing in this election but the “poor performance” of Mr Lubwama, his successor, made him believe that people would vote for him next year. 

“When it became apparent that Kato Lubwama was performing badly in Parliament, people started saying how they miss Lukyamuzi’s representation. That’s what made him stand again,” a source close to Mr. Lukyamuzi said. 

Silver bullets?
Several political analysts interviewed for this story attributed these comebacks by politicians to a deficiency in prospects in Uganda once a person retires from public life. 
“What would they do?” Yusuf Sserunkuuma, a political commentator, said in a phone interview. “In Uganda, they are not being employed as pundits on TV, they aren’t being employed in universities to lecture students.  It’s very hard for a person who has been in the limelight to stay out of it. That’s why these politicians run again for office even if their chances of winning are minimal.”

Another politician, who seems not to relinquish participating in elective politics despite losing several times, is Luweero bush war hero Maj John Kazoora. The retired soldier, while still in bed with the NRM regime, represented Kashaari County in Mbarara district from 1996 to 2006.  

When he crossed to the then newly formed FDC, in 2006, he failed to recapture his seat losing it to Urban Tibamanya. 
In 2011, Maj Kazoora, a former Director of Finance in the Internal Security Organisation (ISO), still standing on the FDC ticket, tried his luck againwith Mbarara Municipality. But in the election that was won by NRM’s Dr Medard Bitekyerezo with 12,553 votes, Maj Kazoora came a distant third having polled only 8,846 votes.  In 2016, Maj Kazoora had another shot at the Mbarara Municipality seat but still lost to NRM’s Michael Tusiime. 

For next year’s election, Maj Kazoora, who seems to have left FDC, will be standing as an NRM leaning Independent for the Kashaari South seat.  This is a shock because earlier in the year, Maj Kazoora said he had quit politics and that he was never going to comment on it either, again. 
“I promised my family that I won’t participate or comment about politics and I intend to keep that promise,” Maj Kazoora who, will be tussling it out with Nathan Twesigye Itungo, said.  

Back to Kampala, Margret Nantongo Zziwa, who was the Kampala woman MP from 1996 to 2006, is campaigning for the newly created Nakawa West constituency.  Ms Zziwa, who was in the 1995 Constituent Assembly that debated and passed the current constitution, last lost a local election in 2011. She wanted to reclaim her Kampala woman MP seat but still, Nabilah Naggayi Sempala, then of the FDC, easily shrugged off her effort.  In an earlier interview with the Sunday Monitor, Ms Zziwa ,who had a stint as a speaker of the East African Legislative Assembly, said she was seizing an opportunity for NRM to reign over Nakawa. 

“If the constituency had not been divided,” Ms Zziwa said, “I would not have stood since Honourbale Ruhindi, I believe would have gone to represent the people of Nakawa very well, ” she said, referring to Fred Ruhindi, who represented Nakawa from 2001 to 2016 before FDC’s Michael Andrew Kabaziguruka  dethroned him. Both Ruhindi and Kabaziguruka are facing off in Nakawa East.
  
Ms Zziwa,  claims that she is ythe best-placed person to sort out issues facing her constituents because she belongs to the ruling NRM party, is facing a stiff challenge from NUP’s Joel Ssenyonyi, FDC’s William Kyambadde, and Independent Kenneth Paul Kakande, among others.  
“The problem is that these politicians think they are the only ones to solve issues in their communities,” Mr Sserunkuuma said. “That’s why they keep on returning.  “