Security officials block NUP presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, from proceeding to Kasese for a campaign rally on November 25. PHOTOS /ABUBAKER LUBOWA.
Opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) party will have to prove to Ugandans its political strength as the 2026 elections draw close. Critics argue that in the last elections, NUP rode on big events that kept them in the news from the time they formed the pressure group People Power in 2018.
From announcing key leaders in the pressure group, such as former journalist Joel Ssenyonyi as party spokesperson, to launching their party paraphernalia like the red beret that would later become a popular dress code, the party seemed to attract supporters, especially the urban youth. At some point, politicians started crossing from other parties to the then Kamwokya-based outfit.
National Resistance Movement (NRM) MPs such as Patrick Nsamba Oshabe (Kasanda North), John Baptist Nambeshe (Manjiya County) and Gaffa Mbwatekamwa (Igara West) crossed from the ruling party to the People Power front. Later, there was a mass exodus of MPs from the Democratic Party (DP). The cross over to NUP included bigshots such as Mathias Mpuuga (Masaka Municipality), Medard Sseggona (Busiro East), and Betty Nambooze (Mukono Municipality), among others.
National Unity Platform (NUP) party leader Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, addresses supporters in Mayuge District on September 4, 2023.
The Kamwokya-based group had taken over the National Unity, Reconciliation and Development Party (NURP) from Mr Moses Nkonge Kibalama ahead of the 2021 General Elections, before renaming it NUP.
After the election, the young political party emerged as the biggest Opposition party, producing 57 MPs, outnumbering the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) that had 32 representatives. FDC had enjoyed the position of the biggest Opposition party since the 2006 elections.
NUP presidential candidate, Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, came second with 3.6 million votes behind NRM candidate Yoweri Museveni who had 6 million votes, according to the Electoral Commission results.
But for the first time, President Museveni lost both Buganda and Busoga to Mr Kyagulanyi. Mr Museveni was beaten to the central region vote by a difference of 614,677 votes. NRM also lost at least 10 parliamentary seats in the central region to NUP and the Democratic Party (DP) during the election. But as the country prepares for the 2026 General Elections, sceptics are questioning if NUP can replicate its 2021 performance.
Left-right: Kampala Woman MP Shamim Malende, NUP Party Secretary General David Lewis Rubongoya and NUP party leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, alias Bobi Wine, during a media briefing in Kamwokya, Kampala, August 23, 2023. PHOTO/MICHAEL KAKUMIRIZI
Disgruntled people
“The support that NUP has is not just for Bobi Wine. It is for people who are disgruntled with what is happening in the country and hate Museveni. There are people who are seeing their children maimed and killed and those are the people that support Bobi Wine,”
says Dr Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, a political analyst and researcher at Makerere University.
He says the support that NUP has can only increase given the circumstances under which they are operating, adding that this can be pushed to other parts of the country as long as the government allows campaigns to go on smoothly.
“There are aspects through which NUP support can grow, and those are violence against them, free campaign and political strategy,” he says. However, Mr Emmanuel Dombo, the director of information and publicity at the NRM secretariat, claims the NUP wave will not live to see the light of 2026 because the people have now seen that the Opposition is more about enriching themselves than helping Ugandans.
“The people have learned that NUP people were not fighting for the betterment of the people in Uganda, but to better themselves. You can see those who received money in Parliament that was meant for taxpayers and hid it as ‘service awards’. NUP also receives money from the government as the biggest Opposition political party, doesn’t that strike you who they work for?”
But Dr Golooba-Mutebi says, given a level playing field, NUP would give President Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, a run for his money.
“If NUP can be given a chance to go across the country, they can beat President Museveni with a huge margin. At least the regime has seen that from every time Bobi Wine has gone out of Kampala… the kind of support he has received. But I am afraid they will not be allowed to do that, and the kind of brutality that we saw in Kawempe North by-election shows exactly what we are headed for and even worse,” he says.
Security officials block NUP presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, from proceeding to Kasese for a campaign rally on November 25. PHOTOS /ABUBAKER LUBOWA.
Political violence
Analysts fear that the brutality meted out against Bobi Wine and his supporters in 2021 could only increase, given the trend that the country is currently witnessing. Figures from NUP show that 2,134 supporters were abducted between 2019 and 2021, 18 of whom are missing to date.
According to the party, in the new term of President Museveni, 143 supporters have been abducted, with the recent ones being of Mr Edward Ssebuufu, aka Eddie Mutwe, Mr Shakur Ssentongo, Mr Najjib Kyagulanyi, Mr Kassim Ssebude and Mr Michael Mpalanyi, aka Infantry.
Party leaders also say 272 activists have been arrested since 2021 and they have been forced to take care of 300 children.
“You need to understand the context under which you operate. The first one is a security problem. Sometimes you see that even at the headquarters we are not able to do activities because they come and deploy here,” says Mr David Lewis Rubongoya, the NUP secretary general. He adds, “The second thing is infiltration.
You want to be sure that the regime is not going to infiltrate and even decide for you who the candidates are. We have been arrested, abducted and killed, which is slowing us down from going to other parts of the nation.”
Mr Rubongoya says in the run up to 2026 elections, the abductions have not stopped. Almost every week, he says, they get reports of new abductions of party supporters.
“Sometimes you don't even know these people, but when the person is released, they come here. Someone says, ‘You know, I was picked up from Rukiga and taken to Masaka or taken somewhere.’ You investigate and find that it is true this person has been in detention for this long.”
But Mr Dombo partially blames NUP for its predicament.
“There is no problem in one doing politics as long as they are doing it within legal frameworks. I know there have been excesses on the security side, but I want you to also think about the level of provocation that NUP have done to our security teams. Don’t you know that there are security people who have been killed before? It is incumbent on every political entity to act with restraint, to make sure that there are no excesses,” he says.
Past performances
Some commentators say the number of President Museveni's votes has dwindled over the years, pointing to noticeable voter fatigue, sheer need for change and a pathetic way in which the country is run, begging more fresh minds to make ideas help in steering the country.
In the first election that was organised by President Museveni in 1996, the Bush War General trounced his opponents, garnering 4.4 million votes (74 percent) as his competitor Paul Ssemogerere polled 1.4 million votes (23.7), while Kibirige Mayanja, who came last in the election, got 123,290. In the following elections of 2001, President Museveni garnered 5.1 million (69 percent) while Dr Kizza Besigye managed 2.05 million votes, representing 28 percent.
In 2006, President Museveni polled 4.1 million votes, representing only 59 percent, while Dr Besigye pulled off 2.5 million votes, representing 37 percent.
In one of his best results polled since the 1996 elections, in 2011, President Museveni had 5.4 million votes, representing 68 percent, while Dr Besigye got 2.06 million votes, representing 26 percent. In 2016, when many of his supporters speculated that Dr Besigye had won the elections, official results showed that President Museveni had won with 5.9 million, representing 60 percent, while Dr Besigye polled 3.5 million votes, representing 35 percent.
In 2021, an election that was believed to have been among the most violent, President Museveni got 6 million votes, representing 58 percent, while newcomer Bobi Wine managed 3.6 million votes, representing 35 percent.
Security personnel disperse crowds that had gathered in Kasese town ahead of a campaign rally by National Unity Platform presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, yesterday. Bobi Wine promised to release Rwenzururu King Charles Wesley Mumbere. PHOTO / ABUBAKER LUBOWA
Political strategy
Prof Fredrick Jjuuko from Makerere University says the current spate of brutality and how it has gathered pace can only be likened to the kind of support that the Democratic Party (DP) got in the 1980 presidential elections.
“NUP would be good as a front because they now have the favour of the people of Uganda. The situation that is in Uganda right now is more serious than it appears, and it won’t take an electoral process to get fundamental change. The elections can be used as a mobilisation tool, but not for fundamental change. But the wave will not die, it will continue to manifest,” Prof Jjuuko says.
Mr Yusuf Sserunkuuma, a political analyst, says, “It isn't about what NUP has done or its plans for the future. It is a wave that thrives on how many crimes Museveni and his team can commit in this period, building to the election. So the deeper Museveni and co. sink, the more the NUP fire, i.e. throwing this rotten system out, is embraced. The challenge of outside Kampala is that folks in the countryside rarely interact with NRM's crimes. So, in their eyes, the system isn't as rotten as folks in Kampala see it and interact with it every day.”
But Mr Dombo believes that the President is unfairly paying the price for mistakes committed by some of his officials. “Overall, there are excesses on the government side, like poor implementation of government programmes, land grabbing by some government officials and stealing of government resources by the politicians who are in government, and all this blame goes to the President,” he says.
For NUP to increase their fortunes beyond Buganda and Busoga as it was in 2021, Mr Rubongoya says they are going to improve the party selection process.
“We are going to make sure that this time round the scientific nature of the ground survey especially is improved, because that is sometimes why it causes problems and we have mechanisms – which I am not able to tell you now – which are meant to improve the selection processes all across the country from MP level, LC5 chairperson up to the LC1 chairperson,” the NUP secretary general says.
“The first step is the village, and like I said, we are doing everything possible to ensure that we have candidates at the village level. It's not that we don't want to run; it is because many times they are even intimidated. For example, we've been getting reports in eastern Uganda, parts of Teso (sub-region) of people being intimidated from participating in these youth elections,” he adds. But Dr Golooba-Mutebi says the real test would be in having a level playing field. “Let the government make the mistake of opening up the election [space] and they will have a bloody nose with the NUP wave. We have seen that these people are not allowed to campaign beyond Kampala, but if they were given a chance, they would have a good show,” he concludes.
