Conspiracies surrounding Kawempe North election violence

Masked operatives of the Joint Anti-Terrorist Task Force (JAT) arrested Mr Nalukoola and some of his supporters shortly after the NUP candidate in the race to replace the late Muhammad Ssegirinya was nominated on February 26. Their crime was to reportedly hold a procession without permission from the Inspector General of Police.

The same unit, however, did not exhibit similar levels of vigilance the following day when Ms Nambi was nominated. Images of her and her supporters having unfettered access to the streets of the constituency juxtaposed with those from the day before when Mr Nalukoola and his people were subjected to brutal treatment have been causing quite an uproar on social media.

Masking terror:Who are the concealed movers of violence?

We don't know those masked security operatives, says govt

What police, army said about hooded JATT operatives

The involvement of JAT in the election given its specialised role in the fight against terror, the obvious double standards exhibited during the two days of nominations and the barbarism that included bundling Mr Nalukoola into a van ‘drone’ and battering of Top TV journalist Miracle Ibra have been the subjects of intense debates in Parliament and the media.

Enemies within?

During the debate in Parliament on Tuesday, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mr Thomas Tayebwa, who chaired the session, suggested that the perpetrators of the violent scenes that played out in Kawempe could be saboteurs working to undermine the State.

“Sometimes I think that there are people (within the security setup) who are against the government. I do not think that the person who did it (beat up the journalist) loves the government because they are destroying the image of the government,” Mr Tayebwa said.

Events in Kawempe could not have come at a more inopportune time. Uganda has been taking quite a beating since November last year when Opposition leader Kizza Besigye was abducted and arraigned before the General Court Martial on charges related to illegal possession of firearms.

His continued incarceration in Luzira, even after the Supreme Court ruled that it was illegal for civilians to be tried in army courts, served to attract widespread condemnation of the government in Kampala. It is a scenario that the government is still reeling from.

Having to deal with accusations of State-inspired violence against its opponents is perhaps the last thing that the government would want to deal with.

Ramifications

That is not the only consideration that it has to contend with as March 13 – the Kawempe election day – draws closer. Making inroads in a region that has been hostile for more than two decades remains a priority for the NRM.

However, the application of violence against an assumedly weak opponent, or one fielded by the assumedly weak side on the political divide, such as was seen in Kawempe, will almost always serve to stoke up emotions that are usually going to work in favour of the downtrodden.

The NRM candidate is concerned that the highhandedness has capacity to not only do irreparable damage to her chances of being voted into Parliament, but to also scuttle the NRM’s chances of reclaiming a seat that it has not held since 2001 when Abdullatif Ssebagala was elected to represent it on a ticket of the Democratic Party (DP).

“What is going on is wrong, and it can only ruin our chances [of emerging victorious]. On the day of my nomination, I pointed out that what was going on was deplorable. Our prayer is that they [security forces] change course,” Ms Nambi said.

Unprecedented?

Ms Alice Alaso, the coordinator of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), who has been a regular actor in the elections for more than 20 years now, concurs that the violence has been escalating with every election cycle.

“The worst I thought I had experienced was in 2016 when pregnant women were beaten, children were abducted, and soldiers took over the running of the elections. But the February 2023 by-election was unprecedented. That election is yet to be documented, but all television crews were ordered out of the field, drones were moving around with armed men who invaded polling stations and stuffed ballot papers,” Ms Alaso said.

The February 2023 Serere County parliamentary by-election was called to elect a replacement for the late Patrick Okabe who died in a December 19, 2022 crash at Naboa, on the Nakalama-Tirinyi-Mbale highway.

Conspiracy

It is inconceivable that the leadership of the NRM would not know that running roughshod over the Opposition hands it the initiative. Why and who then would have let the dogs out?

Mr Emmanuel Dombo, the head of communications at the NRM Secretariat, says the party would be the last institution in the land to unleash members of the security forces on the Opposition candidates and their supporters because the ramifications are obvious.

In a surprising move, however, he waxes lyrical about a conspiracy between actors in the political Opposition and some actors in the security agencies.

“Some of us actually are suspicious that perhaps the Opposition is actually working with the police. You heard the candidate. Common sense would just show that. What is the objective of harassing the Opposition?” wonders Mr Dombo.

Mr Dombo insists that the manner in which police went about the arrest and subsequent release without charge of Mr Nalukoola points to collusion between the Opposition and sections of the Forces.

“When Nalukoola was arrested, did he record a statement? What would have been the objective of arresting somebody who will not record a statement or one who is not going to be charged? You can see that there is a conspiracy,” Mr Dombo argues.

However, Mr Kituuma Rusoke, the spokesperson of the Uganda Police Force, says Mr Dombo’s accusations warrant an investigation.

“Saying that police colluded with the Opposition is serious. We cannot prove it unless there is evidence. If there is evidence, let him submit it to us, and we will cause an investigation,” Mr Rusoke says.

Script?

Mr Dombo claimed that what happened in Kawempe played according to a script that has been played out in the central region for quite a while now. He claimed that one Opposition politician in central region would not have been elected to serve a second term in 2016 if she had not worked with the police to fake her abduction.

“The last time she contested her chances were plummeting. She had to connive with the police to abduct her. The following day, she won the election. So the Opposition in central have their well laid out script on how they relate with security for them to garner a sympathy vote,” Mr Dombo said.

It was not possible to establish which politician Mr Dombo was talking about. We also could not independently verify his claims. 

The problem though is that it is not only in central region that election violence has reared its ugly predatory head. It has occurred during every electoral cycle and in all regions of the country since 1996 when the country first held elections under the NRM era.

The paper, ‘Election-Related Conflict and Violence in Uganda’ the product of a 2019 research conducted by lecturers from Makerere University’s Department of Political Science on behalf of the Women’s International Peace Centre, points out that election violence, though “less pronounced in 1996”, it has been on the increase with every election.

Uganda has, indeed, moved on from simply blockading by the State of Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere – President Museveni’s opponent in the 1996 election – in his hotel in Rukunguri and stoning him in Fort Portal to unleashing Maj Roland Kakooza Mutale and his Kalangala Action Plan on Dr Besigye and his supporters in 2001.

The violence has escalated from the killing of Johnson Baronda and injuring 43 of Dr Besigye’s supporters in Rukungiri as the 2001 campaign closed, to violent arrests on trumped up rape and treason charges and killing Besigye’s supporters, Vincent Kavuma and Gideon Makabyi in Bulange ahead of the 2006 polls. The Bulange incident also left Haruna Byamukama with a broken spine.

2016

The 2016 election has gone down as among the most violent in Uganda. Dr Besigye pointed out that all tools of controlling power, including money, force, gerrymandering of constituencies and control of the media and the Electoral Commission (EC) had been deployed.

“The 2021 elections excelled in demonstrating their tools of maintaining power. Every gun was out. How can you have an election where you have tanks and armoured vehicles all over the place?” Dr Besigye asked.

It should be remembered that at least 54 people, most of them believed to have been NUP supporters, were killed and others sustained serious injuries as the State quelled protests that broke out following the November 18, 2020, arrest in Luuka District of NUP’s presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi on charges of breaching Covid-19 regulations.

Given such a background, there are fears that violence is lying in wait. Those fears were perhaps best expressed by Mr Mathias Mpuuga, the former Leader of the Opposition in Parliament (LoP), who told Parliament on Tuesday that Kawempe was a curtain-raiser.

“The Kawempe by-election is a rehearsal of the hard times ahead of us, and I pray I will be around to remind this House and those acquiescing with State-violence that it will not help anyone,” Mr Mpuuga said.

ALSO READ: 2026 litmus test? Security unleash wrath on NUP supporters

Uganda may be practicing praetorianism

What police, army said about hooded JATT security operatives

Mr Mpuuga, who is also the MP for Nyendo-Mukungwe in Masaka, said acts of violence are certain to be repeated as the country goes into campaigns ahead of the 2026 General Elections.

Impunity

Mr Mpuuga argues that one of the factors fuelling election violence is the failure of the government to take punitive action against the perpetrators.

“From the last election, those who committed crimes against citizens have never been brought to book, including a gentleman who shot journalist Ashraf Kasirye. He is well known, well documented. While Kasirye is in exile in the US, the gentleman who shot him was promoted,” Mr Mpuuga told Parliament.

Several country reports on human rights practices which have been published by the United States’ Department of State have been calling out the NRM government for fuelling impunity.

“Impunity was a problem, and it was widespread in the UPF, UPDF, the Uganda Prisons Service (UPS), and the Executive branch. The security forces did not take adequate measures to investigate and bring to account officers implicated in human rights abuses, especially in incidents involving members of the political Opposition,” the 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices read in part.

The only perpetrator of violence known to have paid for his sins is Lt Ramathan Magara, who Justice Wilson Kwesiga convicted in June 2009 for the Bulange killings. Lt Magara was sentenced to 14 years in jail, a sentence that was upheld by the Court of Appeal.

So, will it be violence and inaction against the perpetrators as usual?

Mr David Bahati, the state minister in charge of Industry, who was filling in as the Leader of Government Business, gave the House reassurances that the government is committed to stamping out violence.

“We shall continue to guard against this violence so that people elect their leaders in a free and fair environment. That is our commitment,” Mr Bahati told Parliament.

Translating such commitments into demonstrable action has always proved a challenge, but now that the voice of Ms Nambi is one of the cacophonies of those calling for an end to electoral violence, one hopes that the words will translate into concrete action.