East Africa: A region ever in turmoil

Presidents Paul Kagame (Rwanda), Felix Tshisekedi (DR Congo)  and João Lourenço (Angola)  following a mediation meeting in Luanda on July 6, 2022. Photo | FILE

What you need to know:

  •  For the East African region, it is always a case of the proverbial one step forward – two steps backwards. By the end of 2021, the region sometimes called the great lakes region was gripped by the diplomatic standoff between Uganda and Rwanda.  Derrick Kiyonga  narrates why the East African region remains in turmoil

For the East African region, it’s always a case of the proverbial one step forward – Two steps backwards.  By the end of 2021, the region sometimes called the great lakes  region was gripped by the diplomatic standoff between Uganda and Rwanda that prompted Kigali to close the Gatuna or Katuna border in 2019. 

 There were several accusations from Paul Kagame’s administration which included Uganda funding rebel groups ostensibly to oust the regime that morphed from President Museveni’s National Resistance Army or NRA.  Uganda, on the other hand, accused Rwanda of espionage and attempts to destabilise Uganda with war not being ruled out by either warring parties. 

 The Katuna border is one of the most commercially critical crossings in the region as it links numerous cities in the region with the economic consequences of shout it down clear: Since when it is fully functioning about 2,518 trucks carrying goods pass through the border every month (84 trucks per day) into Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).   Opening the border hinged on mainly informalities as it took Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni’s son, to visit Kigali a number of times for Rwanda to open the border in March. 

 There was a sense of calmness in the region when after four years Kagame visited Museveni to hold a meeting and later the Rwandan president attended the  celebration of Kainerugaba’s 48th birthday.  

It is said among the things they discussed apparently agreed to push for regional peace and stability by jointly addressing the security situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as part of the East African Community (EAC). In July things got rosier when the DRC become the seventh member of the East African Community, expanding the community to the Atlantic ocean.  DR Congo applied to join the economic bloc in 2019 on the premise that this will allow its citizens to travel freely to other countries and trade will become much quicker, simpler and cheaper, which should benefit businesses and consumers in all countries.

  Most importantly DR Congo was under the impression joining the community would help it improve political ties with its East African neighbours. It hasn’t worked out as the Congolese thought it would: As things stand they are no diplomatic relations between DR Congo and it’s tiny EAC neighbour Rwanda.   Just after DR Congo had joined the EAC   M23 rebels, who are said to be backed by Rwanda, remerged taking over territory in the east of the country including the key border crossing of Bunagana. 

 Whilst Kinshasa accuses Kigali of supporting M23 rebels the counteraccusation from Kigali is that the DR Congo army is instead working alongside an armed group propped by ethnic Hutus (the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda or FDLR) who were deeply involved in the country’s 1994 genocide.  In June, Rwanda accused the Congolese of firing two rockets into its territory and this came after DR Congo had claimed that there were about 500 Rwandan special forces troops on its soil, as tensions continued to go through the roof.

 Kenya has led the way in trying to bring sanity to eastern DR Congo as it has sent thousands of troops who would flash out M23 if they refuse to lay their arms down.  There is also a diplomatic process led by former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in his capacity as the EAC facilitator and African Union peace envoy in which he is engaging over 50 armed groups, victims of atrocities taking place in eastern DRC, civil society, special interest groups and government officials.   Amidst fights over allowances for delegates, Kenyatta announced in December that over 50 Congolese groups had agreed to lay down their arms as Kinshasa finds ways to address their grievances, amongst them the removal of foreign armed groups from the country. 

 In December the M23 rebels said agreed to withdraw from the territory they captured, including the Bunagana border and Kitigoma townships.  But taking them by their word would be foolhardy – in 2012, M23 left the commercial hub of Goma that they had captured following a peace deal negotiated in Uganda. In 2013, Rwanda and Uganda and 11 other countries signed an agreement designed to bring peace to the eastern region DR Congo.   On November 7, 2013, there was hope that the M23 was no more when  Sultani Makenga,  its leader,  surrendered with about 1,500 of his fighters at Mgahinga National Park in Uganda but still they managed to regroup and continue to cause havoc. 

 Kenya hasn’t just led in DR Congo but it has led the way when it comes to democracy.  Former Kenyan Vice President, William Ruto, succeeded his former boss turned rival, Kenyatta, when he was declared victor of Kenya’s presidential election, having shrugged off a challenge from his former ally Raila Odinga - with 50. 5 per cent being enough to see him over the line.  Not that everything was rosy – there was last-minute chaos as four senior election officials condemned the week-long count and disowned the result but ultimately the Kenyan Supreme Court had the last word when it dismissed Odinga’s petition citing lack of evidence but also forgery of evidence by the petitioners. Kenya remains the region’s biggest economy but it just like the rest of the region it has faced prolonged drought which has led to an increase in food prices with prices of Maize and maize flour or Unga which is a staple food doubling.  Ruto has reacted to food scarcity by reversing a 10-year ban on the tilling and importation of genetically modified (GM) maize.  Ruto’s government claims that growing GMOs comes with a lot of positives since seeds will be planted on half-a-million acres and will be drought resistant thus helping to curb shortages caused by the lack of rain but the rest of the region hasn’t bought into the idea.  Tanzania, the second largest economy in the region, reacted by saying it will ramp up vigilance against the importation of GM crops. “We are not open to such GM technology,” Tanzania’s Agriculture Minister Hussein Bashe told The Citizen newspaper, adding that Tanzania does not promote or commercialise genetically modified crop varieties, as the country’s Hybrid and Open-Pollinated (OP) varieties are performing well.

 Rwanda responded by asking Kenyan authorities to stand by international laws such as the Cartagena Protocol- a legally binding global protocol that seeks to contribute to ensuring the safe transfer, handling and use of living modified organisms (LMOs) created through modern biotechnology-   to ensure others are not harmed by its actions on GMOs. The Executive in Uganda hasn’t responded to Kenya’s GMO move but in October a group of lawmakers led by Bufumbira East MP James Nsaba Buturo said that they are in the process of crafting a Bill that intends to prohibit importations of GMOs.  They insist that Uganda does not need GMOs because they pose health risks as well as a danger to the environment. 

 South Sudan

 While other countries in the region are organising elections whether free or not free - South Sudan, which was admitted into the economic bloc seven years ago, has for myriad reasons failed to organise elections. South Sudan, which is rich in oil, secured the long sought-after liberation from its northern neighbour Sudan in 2011 but the honeymoon didn’t last long as it lurched into civil war two years later after violence erupted between troops loyal to Salva Kiir, the president, and his ex-deputy-turned-rival Riek Machar. The country was supposed to organise elections in 2023 but Kiir‘s transitional government extended its tenure for another two years on grounds that he wanted to avoid creating conditions for more bloodshed, meaning that the elections will be organised, keeping all factors constant, in 2024.

“I am not extending the transitional period because I want to stay in the government longer. I do not want to rush you into an election that will take us back to war,” Kiir who was under immense pressure from international donors said, a position Machar agreed to.  “We need a political space. Without political space, we can’t” implement the deal,” Machar said. It wasn’t the first time South Sudan was postponing the election.   They were supposed to have elections in 2015 but they postponed to 2017 or 2018 on grounds that there was a need to give the central government and rebel forces led by Machar more time to achieve reconciliations. Only that elections have never happened.   That is not the only headache that comes with South Sudan being part of the EAC.  It was accepted into the economic bloc in 2016 but the county has so far not made any serious attempts to implement the Customs Union and the Common Market protocols.

 Burundi

Though DR Congo had dominated the headlines in the region there was a time when Burundi threatened to take over that role.   In September Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye, citing a need to avert a coup,  replaced prime minister Alain-Guillau Bunyoni.  Gervis Ndirakobuca who was hit by both European and US sanctions for harassing the opposition during Pierre Nkurunziza’s rule took Bunyoni’s place. 

“Do you think an army general can be threatened by saying they will make a coup? Who is that person? Whoever it is should come and, in the name of God, I will defeat him,” Ndayishimiye bragged before he axed Bunyoni.  Ndayishimiye has been praised by western donors for ending Burundi’s international seclusion which had become a by word under Nkurunziza’s bloody rule. But still, Ndayishimye is yet to improve Burundi’s poor record on human rights and ailing economy. Political assassinations and military coups have been part of Burundi’s political DNA and that’s why an eye needs to be kept on this always-forgotten tiny central African country.