On November 24, while campaigning in Amuru District, Democratic Party (DP) presidential candidate Nobert Mao told supporters that he was neither pledging nor promising anything for Ugandans once elected because the 2021 general election is purely about change.

“The biggest battle we have to achieve is to get rid of President Museveni and his NRM government who have overstayed in power,” he said.

“The problem in the north here and Uganda generally is not the so-called roads and infrastructure, but the bigger problem of a constitutional crisis. Museveni has outlived his usefulness, he has left Ugandans with thorns in their feet but offered them new shoes, which is meaningless,” he noted.

Mr Mao, together with nine others, including two former Bush War generals, are vying for the presidency.

Mr Museveni, who has been Uganda’s President since 1986, is seeking another five-year term after the successful removal of the age limit clause in the Constitution that would have, otherwise, barred him from standing on account of his age.

Although he did not contest in 2016 but opted to support former prime minister Amama Mbabazi’s candidature on the Go Forward ticket, Mao believes he has returned for victory.

“Uganda is so messed up that it needs only mature and experienced leaders to push it forward, let us not vote raw leaders. It is good that you listen to these young leaders, but we first need to groom them because they are still raw,” Mao said.

It is believed Mao was referring to National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine.

“The other candidates are not my business. My main opponent is President Museveni, who is the one who has the ball, and a good footballer does not tackle the one without the ball. How would such young leaders differentiate the good from bad if they do not have their own ideas?” Mao asked.

Previously, the Acholi voted against the NRM party and its candidate Mr Museveni. However, the tide changed after the guns went silent approximately 14 years ago.

In 2006, Besigye secured 79.22 per cent of the vote from Acholi sub-region. However in 2011, his support dropped to a mere 17.38 per cent behind both Museveni (40.83 per cent) and Mao (26.39 per cent).

Mao, a son of the soil, scored 42.77 per cent, 6.14 per cent, 44.1 per cent, 8.02 per cent, 10.79 per cent, 57.53 per cent, and 16.73 per cent in Gulu, Kitgum, Pader, Amuru, Lamwo, Nwoya and Agago districts as a first timer in the 2011 race. 

FDC candidate Kizza Besigye scored 20.62 per cent, 22.17 per cent, 11.62 per cent, 15.33 per cent, 15.82 per cent, 7.63 per cent, and 14.78 per cent in Gulu, Agago, Amuru, Kitgum, Lamwo, Nwoya and Pader respectively against President Museveni’s 29.04 per cent, 59.57 per cent, 36.75 per cent, 38.82 per cent, 50.21 per cent, 26.69 per cent, and 46.12 per cent in the same districts.

However, with the absence of Mao during the 2016 elections, Besigye polled 50.67 per cent, 36.56 per cent, 51.01 per cent, 38.79 per cent, 28.70 per cent, and 32.41 per cent in Gulu, Kitgum, Pader, Amuru, Lamwo, Nwoya and Agago districts respectively according to data from the Electoral Commission website. 

In the same polls, President Museveni garnered 32.74 per cent, 41.84 per cent, 38.86 per cent, 31.52 per cent, 42.92 per cent, 41.64 per cent, and 59.91 per cent in the same districts. In summary, Besigye secured 42.03 per cent of the vote in Acholi as compared to Museveni’s 41.10 per cent and Mbabazi’s 10.91 per cent. 

Role of structures
Arguably, of the 11 candidates vying for presidency, the contest for votes in Acholi sub-region is between four candidates; NRM’s Museveni, DP’s Mao, FDC’s Patrick Oboi Amuriat and NUP’s Kyagulanyi.

It is widely believed that the FDC has been running a lacklustre campaign and the success in Acholi in both 2011 and 2016 could be reversed. Once Mr Kyagulanyi stepped forward, he quickly appeared to be the obvious choice for those tired of Mr Museveni’s 35-year rule.

In east Acholi, comprising of Kitgum, Lamwo, Agago and Pader districts, President Museveni won in the previous election while Dr Besigye won convincingly in west Acholi districts of Gulu, Amuru, and Nwoya.

The variation in support and votes obtained by candidate Museveni in east and west Acholi has been primarily determined by the Members of Parliament whom he depended on to canvass votes for him.

For example, east Acholi has more NRM MPs than west Acholi that comprises of Opposition MPs allied to Dr Besigye.

Besigye and the FDC benefited from the force of the Opposition’s principal campaign message; namely, that Museveni had overstayed, and that NRM was trying to use money and threats to impose weakly leaders on the community.

In turn, opposition politicians insisted that people should stay firm and brave, and elect strong leaders that could defend people’s interests. People were thus encouraged to take money from NRM candidates, but to view such gifts as something that should not buy five years in office.

The idea summarized in one Acholi saying, was simply that, while you can play with someone’s stomach, you cannot play with their brain.
However, DP, FDC and NUP lack the basic campaign structures in the grassroots, unlike the NRM. Some voters say the fulfilment of key pledges made in the past and believable promises the NRM presents now gives them a mileage over other candidates.

Mr David Martin Aliker, a former mayoral candidate for Gulu Municipality on the FDC ticket, told Sunday Monitor that the NRM candidate is likely to garner more votes in the region than any other candidate because of improved infrastructure and clear campaign structure.

“Because of the city and municipality status that Gulu and Kitgum attained respectively, construction of new roads, markets and other infrastructure as promised in the past will make voters believe in the NRM,” Mr Aliker says.

“FDC under Besigye had a clear campaign structure and clear messages besides the sympathy votes that he usually got, but this time it is no more. However, candidate Museveni recently established a robust and strong campaign structure.”

NRM’s campaign team in the region is led by Deputy Speaker of Parliament, also Omoro County MP, Jacob Oulanyah.

However, it is not only DP lacking campaign structures. The confusion that broke out in the FDC, forcing former party president Mugisha Muntu to walk out and form the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), was a huge blow to the party’s establishment in the sub-region.

FDC under Besigye took more time to develop party structures and to engage its mobilisers. But the Opposition leaders who mobilised support for the FDC are no more. Others moved on with Gen Muntu while some crossed to the NRM party while a few remained with FDC.

The disintegration systematically weakened FDC structures and eroded its ability to mobilise support, says Mr Augustine Ojara, a leader of the Koro Clan in Omoro District.

“We are very hungry for change and people are desperate to vote anyone who is promising change, but the problem is that these parties are failing to provide leadership. In fact, the divide in the FDC, DP and NUP systems is clearer than that of the NRM,” Mr Ojara says.

“Whereas NUP’s Kyagulanyi looks to be the real deal, voters are not sure of his personality besides lacking a clear campaign structure in the region.

“Right now people are much more informed than before. I expected Bobi Wine, since he came with a serious wave, to be organised but he does not have structures to move on the ground and break down his messages to the common voters.”

Determinants
Besides lacking an active presence on the ground, Mao’s support seems to be dwindling. He previously encouraged people to vote for Mbabazi, but also recognised that they might want to vote for Besigye.

The dramatic scenes that earlier unfolded at the DP camps in both Gulu and Kitgum during nominations for parliamentary seats was the simplest proof of disconnection and the gap in the party structures in Acholi.

According to William Openytho, a scholar and political activist, that confusion portrays Mao as being unable to convince the electorate.
“If the foot soldiers who are supposed to fight for Mao’s votes are disintegrated, it means the structures to pass Mao’s messages to the last voter are lacking,” he says.

But Mao believes that his only opponent is Mr Museveni and that DP has consolidated all the votes in the north and north-eastern Uganda.
“Surely votes in Lango, Acholi, West Nile and Karamoja regions are mine because I am not only a son, but I have been a leader on the ground previously and they cannot leave out their very own son,” Mao says.

However, although Acholi has historically voted against Mr Museveni, some say the January 2021 elections presents an easy manoeuvrable terrain for the NRM.

Besides Moa’s promises to heal the region of the scars of Lord’s Resistance Army insurgency, develop infrastructure and overhaul the education, agriculture and health sectors in the region, a huge fraction of his votes were out of sympathy since he is a son of the soil.

But President Museveni earlier warned the Acholi to desist from voting along tribal lines. He also accused Opposition politicians of preaching fear in the sub-region.

Mr Oulanyah, also the NRM vice chairperson for northern Uganda, refers to President Museveni as a great hunter whose idea has taken shape successfully.

“Mr President had a vision, knowing what works and what does not work. This is the success of an idea that has taken shape and transformed the area (north). The sub-region will vote for the NRM because they have ushered in peace and stability after the end of the LRA insurgency,” he says.

Although Oulanyah says Acholi has been used by the Opposition and that Opposition parties will not have any chance in the sub-region again, FDC’s Betty Aol Ocan, also the Leader of Opposition in Parliament, thinks differently.

Ms Aol maintains that the NRM has never won in Acholi but has always rigged and bribed voters. She says they are better prepared to face the NRM this time round.

“We have built these structures this time right from village to city level throughout Acholi region. Because they have the gun and the force, NRM has always used violence and assaulted voters to vote for their candidates and that is what we want to avoid this time,” she says.

She adds that the party under Mr Amuriat is basing on an invisible structure that is built throughout the country.

Ms Irene Lalam, the NUP candidate for Gulu District Woman MP, says the party has established structures although it is faced with undecided coordinators who are not adequately spreading the campaign message of their candidate to the grassroots. 

“There is no way a party can make even the simplest influence in the population without the structures you are talking about, and this is there for our case. But we are only faced with the challenge of double-dealing coordinators,” she says. 

She however, insists that NUP is prepared to sweep all the votes in the region at both presidential and parliamentary races.

The promises

 
FDC pledges 
While campaigning in Nwoya District in November, FDC candidate Amuriat said the party’s manifesto has a comprehensive plan to address inaccessible roads in the region to boost agriculture production, enhance access to commercial markets and improve access to social services, including those in Acholi region.

He pledged that once FDC is voted to power in the 2021 general polls, his government will pay each Ugandan a household monthly stipend of Shs100,000. He also promised to compensate families whose properties were lost during the two-decade LRA insurgency.   

Meanwhile, on its agenda for Acholi sub-region, FDC plans to extend land rights to the locals in such a way that the local person is secure in as far as land ownership is concerned.

On education and health, FDC plans to make them more affordable and qualitative for both the rich and poor communities by building more health and learning facilities in the region.
 
DP pledges
To adequately compensate Ugandan traders who lost their merchandise in the South Sudan turmoil as well as build a one-stop modern market at Elegu to boost trade in the area.

To free Uganda’s Constitution which they say has been severely defiled by the NRM government through causing a constitutional overhaul to ensure justice and the rule of law for all.

DP’s manifesto also focuses on five pillars, termed as five principles of agenda 2021 namely a new consensus for Luweero, shared prosperity, ending corruption, reconciling Ugandans, and servant leadership.

NUP promises
NUP flag bearer Robert Kyagulanyi while campaigning in Omoro District last week pledged to prioritise infrastructure development like roads, markets, and health facilities in the region once elected president.

According to the party, equal access to quality education and health services is part of its priority for the people of the region and the country in general. According to Mr Kyagulanyi, access to healthcare is a right and that it will remain his duty to make effective health care accessible to its citizens, including access to water and sanitation services that require an overhaul which he says only the National Unity Platform has the political will to do.