Museveni swearing-in speech sets tone for familiar times ahead

President Museveni took the oath of office at Kololo Independence Grounds this week, May 12, for a sixth elective term. His address to the nation and to visiting regional dignitaries set the tone for Uganda for the next five years.

Uganda’s Mufti, Sheikh Shaban Mubajje, made what was probably the most factual and realistic statement in his prayer at Kololo.

Where every other speaker spoke optimistically and in a congratulatory tone, Mubajje urged Museveni not to forget the “poorest of the poor” and to address the rampant corruption eating  away at Ugandan society.

Museveni drifts from the West

His growing hostility to the West (or the West’s growing hostility to him) was apparent in the speech. Once a favourite of the West, he is more and more at the receiving end of criticism with his government and military officials facing sanctions and travel bans.

He might maintain a brave face, but the way he is increasingly under Western governmental and media scrutiny is a situation Museveni finds uncomfortable.

Tensions between Uganda, Rwanda

What was most conspicuous at the ceremony was the absence of Paul Kagame, head of state of Rwanda. To those unfamiliar with Uganda and the Great Lakes region, Kagame’s absence would not be noteworthy. 

Heads of state sometimes get busy and are unable to attend overseas events. But Kagame’s absence holds special significance to both Rwanda and Uganda.

President Kagame pointedly did not send President Museveni a congratulatory message when the latter was declared president-elect in January.

Representing Kagame at Kololo for Museveni’s swearing-in was a minister of state. 

This all came on the back of the seriously strained relations between the two countries. Rwanda closed its border with Uganda in March 2019.

A summit between the two leaders at Katuna border in February 2020 to resolve the tensions ended without a breakthrough – and, if anything, saw tensions increase.

Rwanda set terms for the re-opening of the border that she knew Museveni could not possibly fulfil.

Among these were the sacking of a top military officer whom Rwanda accused of being the mastermind behind the arrest, torture or disappearance of Rwandan nationals in Uganda.

Not only did Museveni not sack the officer; the following month, March 2020, he promoted the said officer.

Rwanda interpreted this as a snub by Museveni and, to them, proof that Museveni ordered or approved of the arrest of the Rwandans.

Rwanda warned its citizens against travel to Uganda. Usually with Rwanda, that meant that the citizens were ordered not to travel to Uganda. The only travel to Uganda from Rwanda is now by air. 

Sending a minister of state to Museveni’s swearing-in was president Kagame’s way of indicating where he thinks relations now are.

The gesture clearly shows that to borrow Facebook’s terminology, Rwanda has unfriended and unfollowed Uganda and, going by the status of the border, blocked Uganda too.

As things stand, Rwanda is keeping diplomatic relations at the lowest possible level that stops just short of a formal severing of ties.

This breakdown of relations between two countries that in the mid to late 1990s acted almost like a geographical and cultural extension of each other, will be President Museveni’s biggest political challenge over the next five years.

As is usual with Museveni, the President praised and called for greater East African economic cooperation and African unity.

It was ironic that Museveni should speak optimistically about regional integration when the one key neighbour Rwanda is no longer on good terms with Uganda.

Of course, there was the added irony that Museveni, who spoke in lofty terms about the need for African unity, first made sure to lock up his two most recent presidential challengers, Kizza Besigye and Bobi Wine, ahead of the swearing-in ceremony.

Uganda official protocol

Over the last several years, a noticeable pattern has taken root at state occasions held at Kololo. The official, formal tone and emotional distance that makes State occasions what they are and should be, is giving way to a certain naïve, gushing air.

A needless and somewhat primitive sentimentality has become the standard during major national events at Kololo Independence Grounds.

Military parades that should be watched in respectful silence are applauded as though they are civilian trade show parades. 

The chairperson of the Electoral Commission, Mr Simon Byabakama, reflected this unseemly familiarity, enthusiastically describing President-elect Museveni as a “bride” and the First Lady Janet Museveni as accompanying this “bride.”

This going personal by Byabakama might seem innocuous, but it lends credence to the argument by Opposition parties FDC and NUP that in lead up to the January general election, Byabakama was not a neutral party. 

They claim he is one of an increasing number of “cadres” in official positions and who owe their first allegiance to the person of Museveni.

Commentators on UBC Radio, the State broadcaster, showed their partisan leanings in their live coverage of the proceedings at Kololo.

This merging of the NRM party with the Uganda government will become more pronounced over the next five years in which government officials and civil servants will be expected to show or state more publicly their loyalty to the NRM and to President Museveni.

The economy, 2021-2026

Anybody familiar with Museveni knows his enthusiasm for economic policy and theory and his grasp of many of its basic principles.

His speeches and addresses to the nation on economic development are convincing and interesting to listen to.

But anybody who has known Museveni for long has come to realise the contrast between the policy proposals he lays out in his speeches, and what really happens.

Those who know Museveni will know that he will not clamp down on corruption over the next five years. He will not curb waste in government. The next Cabinet that he appoints will be as large as all recent Cabinets.

Over the next few weeks and months, as sure as day follows night, there will be major corruption scandals within the government and most of those involved will not be apprehended or sacked.

The economy will struggle a lot over the next five years. The first hint of it came two weeks ago when the government announced that it planned on entering talks with the World Bank and the Chinese government to reschedule Uganda’s debt.

The fact that Uganda has hit a debt crisis points to the fact that the economic benefits of the recent large-scale investment in highways, municipal roads, power dams and bridges shows little signs of an immediate or future return on the investment.

A sign of the crisis in the economy can be seen, with more and more NRM supporters leveraging their party membership and contacts to get jobs in the government, as their private businesses struggle to stay afloat.

When an economy is doing well, the private sector is more attractive than the government; when the economy is struggling, government jobs become more attractive than the private sector.

At present in Uganda, a government job is more attractive than private business.