President Museveni gestures as he addressed a rally in Kawempe North on March 12, 2025
Three days after the National Unity Platform’s (NUP) Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola was declared winner of the Kawempe North by-election, President Museveni issued a statement alleging rigging by the Opposition. This was the second time in as many years that he was alleging the same. The first time was on September 12 last year during a speech that he gave at the close of the first defence expo, which was organised in memory of the late former minister for Internal Affairs and army commander, Gen Aronda Nyakairima.
Gen Aronda died on September 12, 2015, at the age of 56. Mr Museveni repeated the claims on March 16 alleging that the Opposition had engaged in “ballot papers’ stuffing, altering results and destroying ballot boxes”.
The claims came with a dash of spice though. He claimed that the Opposition had also intimidated and meted out violence against some supporters of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM). If the claims had been made at one of those ongoing rallies that he is addressing as part of his nationwide assessment of the impact of the Parish Development Model (PDM) and Four Acre Model, one would have thought that the President had made the remarks in jest. He, after all, enjoys an occasional joke. The comments were, however, contained in a four-page signed statement.
President Museveni hands the NRM flag to the party candidate in Kawempe North by-election, Ms Faridah Nambi as he addressed a rally on on March 12, 2025 . PHOTO/ PPU
Monopoly of force
Mr Museveni suggested that people were intimidated or beaten possibly because they support the NRM.
“Investigations will show us who destroyed the ballot paper boxes at Kazo-Angola, Mbogo Centre etc. and why. Could it be because of the big support the NRM has there because of the anti-poverty in the area?” he asked.
Mr Joel Ssenyonyi, the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament (LoP), says Mr Museveni needs to clarify his comments.
“It is our leaders who were beaten. Are those the NRM supporters he is talking about? Or are the JATT [Joint Anti-Terrorist Taskforce] people who beat up our leaders and supporters our supporters? Mambas were all over the place. Is it NUP that was making havoc, beat up journalists, put them in drones and beat them before throwing them out in different places?” Mr Ssenyonyi wonders. Mr Alice Alaso, the coordinator of the Opposition Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) weighs in, saying Mr Museveni must have been out in search of something to blame the defeat on.
“They are just trying to create something to sanitise the bad things that went on. That is his Electoral Commission (EC). That is his army. He commands it and uses it like a personal army. Now if a NUP supporter can be arrested for just putting on a red overall, what would happen if such supporters were caught walking around and brandishing guns or beating up journalists?” Ms Alaso wonders.
Mr Museveni’s allegations beg questions about who between the ruling NRM and the Opposition has a monopoly over the use of force. That question was perhaps answered by the Bertelsmann Stiftung Transformation Index (BTI) 2024, an analysis and evaluation of how developing countries and those in transition go about moving towards greater democracy based on 17 indicators including, among others, political participation and the rule of law recently concluded that the NRM government enjoys a monopoly over the use of force.
“The State maintains a substantial monopoly on the use of force, even though there are recurring issues of misuse of this power by members of the armed forces, driven either by personal motivations or political factors,” the Index notes.
READ: NUP brought six lorries of stones, dressed like JATT to disrupt Kawempe by-election, says minister
Infallibility
It is improbable that Mr Museveni would have put pen to paper if he did not believe that what he was stating was the truth, but most importantly, it suggested that he believes that he and the NRM remain extremely popular 39 years after it grabbed power.
“He believes that he is awesome. He cannot believe that people can oppose him. That is why he does not entertain people opposing him. He believes that he has done very good things in healthcare, education and infrastructure. In his mind, he picked Uganda from some kind of abyss and Uganda is thriving because of him so he believes he should be rewarded as opposed to being castigated,” Mr Ssenyonyi said.
Ms Alaso says matters are not helped by the fact that so many people around him play to that narrative. Over the last couple of years, several people around him have waxed lyrical about his superior intellect.
“President Museveni is a gift from God and because of his superhuman wisdom, we should keep him in power to continue serving Ugandans… He is a very devoted man. Like Jesus, he left the comforts of the world and decided to use his life to help Ugandans out of poverty and misery…. (his intellect) is beyond human understanding and perhaps next to God’s,” said Energy minister Ruth Nankabirwa in January 2021.
Dr John Jean Barya, a former professor of Law at Makerere University who has since gone into private practice, says history will tell whether his ideas are superior to those of other Ugandans. “There have been so many people who thought that their views are the only views and that any other views are either wrong or inferior. It is only history that can resolve that question. What I think does not matter. What matters is the reality and the reality of Uganda is… it has been sold to foreign interests. We have such a huge population which is desperate, without jobs, without social services or social security,” Dr Barya says.
NRM support
However, Mr Museveni’s statement inadvertently raises questions about the extent of the NRM’s support in Kawempe. We shall do well to remember that following the defeat that it suffered at the hands of NUP in January 2021, the NRM commissioned a post-election assessment exercise to interrogate the causes of its dismal showing in Buganda and Busoga regions. NRM lost at least 10 parliamentary seats in central region to the Opposition, mostly the NUP, during the last election. The biggest scalps was that of Mr Edward Kiwanuka Ssekandi, Mr Museveni’s vice president of 10 years, who was defeated by Mr Richard Ssebamala of the Democratic Party (DP).
The list of losers also included ministers Judith Nabakooba, Vincent Bamulanzeki Ssempijja, Kezimbira Miyingo, Beti Kamya, Nakiwala Kiyingi and Haruna Ka[1]solo who were holding the Information Communications Technology (ICT); Agriculture; Higher Education; Lands and Urban Development; Youth and; Microfinance dockets respectively. At the same time, Mr Museveni was beaten to the central region vote by the NUP presidential candidate, Mr Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu.
Mr Kyagulanyi garnered 1,453,535 votes, while Mr Museveni got 838,858 votes, a difference of 614,677 votes. It was the first time that Mr Museveni and the NRM lost the block vote in the central region.
