What Besigye arrest means for PFF as 2026 looms

Dr Besigye and his co accused have since denied the charges and also challenged the court’s jurisdiction to try him.

On July 1, 2021, the Constitutional Court, in a majority ruling of three against two judges, ruled that the General Court Martial has no powers to try civilians. The judges said that the powers of the military court are limited to serving officers of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF).

The General Court Martial, the judges further noted, lacked the necessary independence and impartiality to qualify as a competent court within the meaning of article 28(1) of the Constitution.

The officers who preside over the Court’s proceedings, the judges noted, lack the necessary security of tenure and are accountable to their superiors for their actions or omissions because of the military oaths.

The Constitutional Court’s ruling was the basis for Dr Besigye’s challenge.

Politics or Crime?

It should however be noted that the biggest talking point and one that his defence team invoked to challenge the legality of his trial was whether Uganda had the jurisdiction to try Besigye for crimes that he allegedly committed in Kenya.

It would in the circumstances be inconceivable that the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), Attorney General and his team, officials in the Ministry of Justice and Constitutional Affairs or the president’s legal team would not know about this.

PFF question

This therefore suggests there is more to it than meets the eye. If the comments of the former Minister for Ethics, Ms Maria Matembe, during a current affairs talk show held on one of the local television stations soon after Dr Besigye’s arrest is anything to go by, politics was written all over Dr Besigye’s abduction and trial.

“Besigye has now come up with a new fire and energy…There was a clash in FDC (Forum for Democratic Change). They (left) and came up with the PFF (People's Front for Freedom) party. That gives him a new beginning,” said Ms Matembe.

Ms Matembe concludes that developments around PFF caused Mr Museveni and his handlers to press the panic button.

“There could be a possibility for fresh mobilisation to build this new party. Then President Museveni starts shaking. “How can this man again come with vibrancy?” The PFF is coming with vibrancy. So, he is so scared, so intimidated as usual, about elections. You know the way he wants to stay forever,” Ms Matembe said.

Mr Emmanuel Dombo, the Director for Communications at the Secretariat of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) argues that Dr Besigye was arrested for suspected criminal conduct.

“First of all, the matter is before court. It is therefore not proper for me to delve into its details even if I knew them, but Dr Besigye was not arrested by the NRM. He was arrested by the security forces, who were privy to intelligence information from their sources,” Mr Dombo argues.

NRM being cautious?

Mr Livingstone Ssewanyana, the Executive Director at the Foundation for Human Rights Initiative (FHRI), agrees with Ms Matembe that politics is written all over the arrest of Dr Besigye and his friend, Obeid Lutale, but thinks that Mr Museveni and the NRM are simply being cautious.

“They formed a new political party, which means that they definitely become a threat with a new political party because you cannot tell what its impact will have. You recall how NUP (National Unity Platform party) came up in the run up to 2021. No one expected that kind of excitement. So, it is also possible that as 2026 comes close, a new party can easily excite people and pose a threat,” says Mr Ssewanyana.

NUP’s show

Indeed, NUP put up a surprisingly strong showing in Buganda and Busoga regions.

Whereas President Museveni was declared winner of the 2021 presidential elections with 6,042,898 votes representing 58 percent of the total votes cast, it was the lowest win percentage he has posted since 1996 when he first contested as a presidential candidate in a direct election.

Mr Museveni at the same time suffered for the first time since 1996, losses in Busoga and Buganda regions.

Mr Kyagulanyi’s 437,059 votes against Mr Museveni’s 404,862 votes in Busoga region. Mr Kyagulanyi won the districts of Kamuli, Luuka, Iganga, Jinja, Bugweri, Bugiri, Namayingo and Mayuge districts, leaving Mr Museveni with only victories in Buyende, Kaliro and Namutumba districts.

The NRM was annihilated in Buganda. Mr Kyagulanyi took 1,453,535 votes against Mr Museveni’s 838,858 votes in Buganda.

Big name NRM government officials including the Vice President lost their parliamentary seats in Buganda. NUP claimed at least nine of the parliamentary seats that used to be represented by NRM government Ministers. It was only Vice President, Edward Kiwanuka Ssekandi who lost to a Democratic Party (DP) candidate, Mr Richard Ssebalama.

The other nine NRM top wigs including among others, Ms Judith Nabakooba, who was the Minister for Information Communication Technology (ICT) and National Guidance at the time, Mr Vincent Bamulanzeki Ssempijja, who was the Minister for Agriculture, Mr Kezimbira Miyingo, who was the State Minister for Higher Education, and Ms Beti Olive Kamya who was the Minister for Lands lost to NUP candidates.

Not taking chances

Mr Ssewanyana now thinks that if moves are being taken to nip the momentum that PFF in the bud, it is not because Mr Museveni is afraid. He simply never leaves anything to chance.

“A new party has been formed, and it could pose a threat, but I cannot say that Mr Museveni is scared. I think President Museveni’s approach has always been to never ignore anyone or anything. He is pre-emptive. He uses a pre-emptive strategy” Mr Ssewanyana adds.

This could perhaps explain why even one of the most comical and seemingly harmless of all candidates in the 2021 presidential elections, Mr John Katumba, who stood as an independent candidate was subjected to some really strong arm tactics during the campaigns.

Boomerang?

If arresting Dr Besigye was aimed at removing a threat that he and the PFF party pose to the NRM and Mr Museveni’s continued stay in power, there are those who think that chances are high that it will actually return to bite the NRM and Mr Museveni.

One must appreciate that Dr Besigye’s biggest strength over the years has been his ability to reinvent himself. Whereas it is true that some of the factors that have contributed to that capability have been mostly endogenous, there are scenarios where they have been exogenous or both.

In 2000 it was a cocktail of threats to his personal freedom and liberties and the desire to inoculate himself against those threats that he declared his intention to take on his former Commander in Chief for the top job.

It should be remembered that he was threatened with being frog marched before the General Court Martial after the paper, "An Insider's View of How the NRM Lost the Broad Base", in which he detailed how the Movement had lost its way, was made public. The charge of airing his views before a wrong forum, a tool that was always employed by Mr Museveni to muzzle debate inside the Movement, was only dropped in return for an apology that he never made. Events around that dossier were the precursor to his political journey this far.

Exchanges with Museveni

It should be remembered that on November 1, 2000, Mr Museveni accused Dr Besigye of having declared his candidature without consulting organs of the Movement.

"Besigye has gone about his intentions in an indisciplined and disruptive way. He has, without consulting any organ of the Movement, launched himself as a Movement candidate although it is well-known that he is in close collaboration with multipartists. Let us, however, assume that Col. Besigye is not in cahoots with multipartists," Mr Museveni wrote.

Mr Museveni who also accused Dr Besigye of involvement in the purchase of junk military choppers from elarus, promised to pen bi-weekly missives to "de-toxicate the toxins being administered” by the likes of Dr Besigye.

Dr Besigye did not take any prisoners in his swift rebuttal. He invited the President to challenge him on among other things the existence of a Military tender board and whether he often did not misdirect himself into thinking that he was the tender board. Mr Museveni did not respond. The promised biweekly missives also did not come.

It was an exchange that proved that here was someone who could either match or eclipse Mr Museveni for eloquence and coherence.

Exile

Having been twice hounded off planes at Entebbe and with his internal movements curtailed, Dr Besigye fled into exile on August 17, 2001. How he pulled it off even when he was under heavy surveillance remains a mystery that only he will one day unravel. This however served to elevate his standing as a tactical genius.

Arrest

Dr Besigye was arrested on November 14, 2005, three weeks after his return from exile in South Africa. He was charged with treason and rape. He was sent on remand in Luzira. His arrest sparked off riots in Kampala.

Attempts were made to block his nomination to run as the candidate for the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), which had been registered while he was in exile. Dr Khiddu Makubuya, the Attorney General at the time, bizarrely argued that “he was not at the same level of innocence” as other Presidential candidates. Dr Besigye was nevertheless nominated.

Whereas the High Court granted him bail on November 25, he was sent back to jail on charges of terrorism and illegal possession of weapons. He was freed on bail on January 6, 2006 to continue with a campaign that he often had to interrupt in order to appear in court.

The apparent injustice that he was being subjected to may not have served to give him victory, but it elevated his profile.

In 2011, after another futile shot at the presidency, he latched onto the rise in inflation from 4 percent in 2010 to 16.2 per cent in 2011, to launch the walk to work protests, during which he was brutally arrested and doused with pepper spray by police officer Gilbert Arinaitwe. That left the image of the NRM government in tatters.

Mbabazi in the shadows

Former Prime Minister, Mr Amama Mbabazi, was initially considered to be a political Titan and opposition leader who could not only eclipse Dr Besigye and probably give Mr Museveni a run for his money in the 2016 general elections. However, even with the backing of DP, Mr Mbabazi could only manage 136,519 or 1.39 per cent of the vote, while Dr Besigye garnered 3,508,687 votes or 35.61 of the votes cast.

Dr Besigye did not contest the 2021 elections. Since then, there have been questions about his popularity and ratings in Uganda’s opposition, but others like Prof Paul Wangoola, a former member of the National Consultative Council (NCC) insists that his place in history of the struggle against what he described as militarism.

“Unless there is something extraordinary that he does to undo that historical place he has carved out for himself, his place is secure in the history of Uganda. Posterity shall read about him. Some of us view him as the most solid, consistent guy with an understating of militarism as it is and with a solution outside military action. So his place in the history of Uganda is secure,” Prof Wangoola says.

The question though is what this latest arrest means for his politics, the future of the unregistered PFF party and the 2026 general election.

Prof Wangoola says that Besigye’s situation portends well for his political future and that of the PFF.

“Nobody is going to believe that he was found with two pistols trying to overthrow the regime. His current situation enhances his position in the struggle against militarism and arms him with the fuel to continue mobilising” Prof Wangoola says.

Mr Dombo however insists that Dr Besigye poses no political threat to the NRM.

“But Besigye in FDC and Besigye in PFF, what difference does it make? The same Besigye who was in FDC is the same Besigye who is in PFF. Let him just reconcile with his former boss (Museveni). I do not know which their areas of disagreement were, but I think that the earlier they reconciled in order to build a better Uganda together, the better for everybody,” Mr Dombo argues.

We wait to see who is reading it right.