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Broken dialogue signals end to Congo peace process as Kagame breathes fire

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Rwandan President Paul Kagame in military gear. Photo/ Pool

Before things came to a head this week, the leaders would skip meetings and, when they did attend them, the interpretation of the outcomes was often at variance.

Still, Angolan President Joao Lourenço, mediator of the Luanda Process gave hope signalling, last month, the creation of a monitoring mechanism. More meetings were skipped, however.

This week, Rwanda President Paul Kagame gave the clearest signal yet that he was no longer in talking terms with his Congolese counterpart Felix Tshisekedi.

Addressing the diplomatic corps in Kigali, Kagame suggested that the problem was Tshisekedi.

President Kagame had always signalled readiness to talk, as mediated by President Lourenço, and so has Tshisekedi. But both gave conditions. Kinshasa demanded an end to arming M23 rebels by Kigali, who demanded that M23 come to the table.

On Thursday Kagame seemed to question the legitimacy of the Congolese leader, alleging that he had not won the elections that brought him to the presidential palace.

“The person causing problems has never twice been elected…and you know it. This man Tshisekedi was never elected at first, at all. And you know it only that you don’t talk about it publicly. I am talking about it publicly. The second time, nothing happened…and you know it,” he told the diplomats.

Tshisekedi, an opposition candidate in 2018, was declared winner of the presidential election in 2019, amid opponents and the Catholic Church vehemently discrediting the results.

He was quickly endorsed by peers on the continent, including Kagame, who initially warmed up to with Kinshasa and even signed some trade agreements and pushed DRC to join the East African Community.

At the elections in December 2023, Tshisekedi was again declared winner, with opponents claiming the polls had been rigged. Kinshasa at the time barred observers from the EAC, but the African Union endorsed the results.

The EastAfrican requested the Congolese government for comment on the latest onslaught by Kagame but had not received one by press time.

But earlier on Tuesday, Government Spokesman Patrick Muyaya endorsed a damning report from the UN Group of Experts on the Congo, which indicted Kigali for a role in fuelling the war.

“Once again, as has become customary, Rwanda has been caught red-handed by the United Nations Group of Experts. And in response to this report, which reveals all about the modus operandi of the looting and other crimes committed by its soldiers and terrorist accomplices, the strategy of the empire of lies consists of denying, denying again and again,” Muyaya, the minister, said

A new report by UN experts confirmed “the presence of almost 4,000 Rwandan soldiers in the DRC, with M23 units directly supervised by the Rwanda Defence Force's special forces.”

The report presented “new images confirming the presence of Rwandan air defence systems on Congolese soil.”

The US spoke of this too.

"The UN group of experts’ report on the eastern DRC conflict aligns with US findings. The report underscores the urgency of reaching an agreement that ensures the quick departure of Rwandan forces and quells the threats posed by democratic forces for the liberation of Rwanda," said Matthew Miller, spokesman for the US State Department.

For Kagame, however, the Congolese problem is rooted in the historical mistakes of relying on foreigners whose expertise, he argues, is even doubtful.

“If you want to really address a problem, there is no better way of doing that than bothering to look at addressing the root cause of the problem. It doesn’t matter how powerful you are. You just stick to the basics. Group of experts, what do they do? What are they experts in actually? You don’t need to be an expert in anything, you just need to toe the line of those using you…including the very people who originate this problem, as of the history that goes way back to colonial times,” he said on Thursday.

Rwanda has often denied fuelling M23 rebels. On Tuesday, and last week, Kagame said eastern DRC wouldn’t have peace even if Rwanda didn’t exist.

Instead, he said Rwanda’s security is at stake as long as the Congolese and the international community overlook the cause of the war.

“The very people who murdered people here in Rwanda, those who carried out genocide, still exist, are still armed, are still practicing the ideology of genocide in our neighbourhood, in eastern Congo,” the Rwandan president said.

It means the fate of the eastern DRC is uncertain, with the clashes resuming at a time of heavy public spats between the two capitals.

President Lourenço tried to avert this from as early as December. Last week, he met with Kenyan President William Ruto, Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso and French President Emmanuel Macron. At each of these meetings, Lourenço raised the issue of the need for peace to return to the DRC.

Dr Ruto, whom Tshisekedi’ s government has in the past accused of bias, proposed pushing for a meeting between the EAC and Southern African Development Community (SADC), whose troops are currently in the DRC helping the Congolese army.

Nguesso and Lourenço expressed their “deep concern at the continuing fighting.” They called on the parties to “maintain and strengthen initiatives conducive to dialogue and support mediation efforts,” according to a dispatch last week.

On Thursday, when Macron received the Angolan president, he stressed that, when it came to restoring peace in the DRC, priority must be given to dialogue.

“Together, we solemnly call for the resumption of discussions at the highest level,” the French leader said.

Presiuident Lourenço is due to take over the chairmanship of the African Union, a rotational post, but which means he will now be immersed more in the Congo matter.

Although he declared that he remains “determined to pursue his mission,” his patience could be tested in a region where the Congolese have often preferred military action to dialogue.

The military action, from the UN peacekeepers to the East African Community Regional Forces and now SAMIDRC, have faced the same problem: broken ceasefires and massive displacement of civilians.

In the latest eruption, at least 100,000 people were displaced from North Kivu. Mr Kagame on Thursday expressed his disappointment in the UN force, Monusco.

“We have had peacekeepers from the UN in that country for close to three decades. The continued presence for three decades when they went there to address problems, means that there are still problems to address or actually the first problems were never addressed,” he told diplomats in Kigali.

“What are the returns on that investment, of such a big force under such a big body like the UN and so much money spent. What is the return on that investment other than continuing to have problems getting worse? That also shows, or maybe proves, why Rwanda has to carry the burden of this problem.”

In DRC, a UN peacekeeping mission has been present since 1999, even though it has routinely changed mandate and the name over the years.

It is now called Monusco, a French acronym for UN Stabilisation Force in Congo. Its existence, Kagame argues, has not delivered peace

It was not always this tense. In October 2024, the Foreign Affairs ministers of Rwanda and DRC, together with experts from the two countries, agreed on a harmonised peace plan, which involved Rwanda disengaging from the DRC and Kinshasa neutralising the FDLR -- remnants of the 1994 genocide perpetrators in Rwanda) in eastern DRC.

Kagame rejects the allegation and says the actual problem is the international community’s failure to address their grievances including constant persecution from authorities in the DRC, as well as covering the culprits, including the FDLR.

Meanwhile, in North Kivu, fighting the violence has worsened. According to Virginie Napolitano, the emergency project coordinator for Doctors Without Borders (MSF), the fighting is forcing "civilians to flee in haste...leaving everything behind.”

“This is the third wave of displacement in the area since the beginning of the year," Napolitano said, adding that 290,000 people had been displaced in Lubero territory, North Kivu.