1.5 million learners fail to complete S6 annually

According to the education statistical abstracts covering 2008 to 2011 and UACE results from 2020 to 2024, more than 6.5 million learners joined Primary One in different schools across the country during the period under review, but fewer than 500,000 of these managed to reach Senior Six.

At each major promotional level of education, including Primary Seven and Senior Four, the numbers declined significantly. For example, of the 6.5 million enrolled learners, only 2.3 million reached Primary Seven, and this figure further decreased to 1.3 million at the Senior Four level.
Government officials stated that part of those who did not reach Senior Six either joined technical vocational institutions or nursing institutions, while the whereabouts of the rest remain unknown.

Education experts, on the other hand, linked the dropout rates mainly to teenage pregnancies and early marriages for girls, poverty, and low learning morale among boys.

To address this challenge, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Education and Sports, Dr Kedrace Turyagyenda, said the government is upgrading the Education Management Information System (EMIS) to track enrolled learners from primary to university level.

Dropout rate

In 2008, a total of 1.8 million learners were enrolled in Primary One across different government and private schools. However, the 2020 UACE results show that fewer than 100,000 students sat for senior six.

In 2009, more than 890,000 learners joined Primary One, but only 600,000 managed to finish Primary Seven, of whom 96,000 proceeded to senior six, according to the analysed documents.
The 2022 UACE results indicate that 109,486 students sat for Senior Six. This figure represents six percent of the total 1.9 million learners enrolled in the 2010 Primary One class.

A total of 140,888 students sat for the 2024 UACE, according to results released by the Education Minister, Ms Janet Museveni, last Friday. This cohort is part of the 1.8 million learners who
joined Primary One in 2011.
Dr Turyagyenda noted that some of the numbers recorded by the ministry in the abstracts were learners who repeated the primary one class.

"Because most communities do not have Early Childhood Education and Development (ECED) centres, parents enrol their children in primary school at age four, so they do not progress through the system. The majority end up repeating classes. We counted them but did not realise it," she said.
She further stated that many candidates who do not make it to Senior Six either enrol in vocational institutes or nursing institutions.

"Take keen interest when the Uganda Nurses and Midwives Examinations Board (UNMEB) and Uganda Business and Technical Examinations Board (UBTEB) release their results. You will find that most graduates with certificates enrolled after O-level," she said.

The 2021/22-2025/26 TVET Communication, Marketing, and Rebranding Strategy released by the ministry last year showed that enrolment in TVETs remains low. For example, between 2007 and 2017, enrolment increased from 25,262 to 129,000.

The Uganda Business and Technical Examinations Board (UBTEB), the government agency that assesses examinations from TVETs, reported in its June 2023 end-of-year performance report that it assessed 82,080 candidates in the 2021/22 academic year and another 166,218 candidates in the 2022/2023 academic year.

There are no clear statistics on how many missing UCE students joined TVETs, as these institutions admit students from PLE, UCE, and Uganda Advanced Certificate of Education.
Similarly, UNMEB registered 108,547 candidates in 2022 and 2023 in certificate courses, including the Certificate in Comprehensive Nursing, Certificates in Nursing, and Certificates in Midwifery.

Why did they drop out

In its 2021 statistical abstract, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos) linked the majority of school drop-outs from primary to senior six to a combination of factors, including poverty, financial constraints, lack of resources, and family obligations, which often lead to early marriages and pregnancies for girls.

Similarly, the 13-member Education Policy Review Commission, in their January 2025 report titled: Education for Values, Innovation, and Transformation, found that high dropout rates are due to several factors, including high out-of-pocket household expenses on scholastic and non scholastic materials such as stationery, meals, and uniforms, which remain a major challenge for many parents.

"There are high-stakes examinations such as the Primary Leaving Examinations (PLE). Consequently, there is a significant decline in transition rates from primary to secondary education, which impedes the full attainment of basic education. Most of those unable to transition either repeat or drop out, indicating system inefficiency. The repetition and dropout issues create an enrolment 'bulge' in early grades, which is both costly and counterproductive," the report by the Col (Rtd) Nuwe Amanya Mushega-led Committee states.

The chairperson of the National Private Education Institutions Association (NPEIA), Mr Hasadu Kirabira, attributed the increasing dropout rates to economic hardships, which force some parents to abandon their responsibility of paying school fees.

"I also think this is due to the collapse of the village council system, which has been weakened. We always had the secretary of education at LC1 ensuring that all children attended school, which is no longer the case today," he said.

Dr Mary Goretti Nakabugo, the executive director of UWEZO, attributed some drop-outs to teenage pregnancies, early marriages, and child labour.
"The main factor causing these dropouts is financial constraints. Most parents, especially in villages, cannot afford to pay for school. Even in government schools, hidden costs such as buying books and feeding are difficult to afford," she said.

Adding: "When schools temporarily reopened, we conducted a survey and found that many students had dropped out. For girls, the reasons were teenage pregnancies and early marriages, while boys engaged in economic activities, which I believe contributed to the dropout rate."

Mr Filbert Baguma, the Secretary General of the Uganda National Teachers Association (UNATU), said: "Students also drop out because they have low interest in their studies. To stay in school, there must be something engaging to keep them there."

Solution

Stakeholders in the education sector stated that the dropout rate is alarming and urged the government to close the gaps before it is too late.
The EPRC report recommended the establishment of well-developed structures to ensure out-of-school children continue their education.

"The comprehensive reforms—from early childhood through higher education—should be designed to reduce dropout rates, enhance academic and vocational proficiency, and align education with regional and global needs," the report reads.

Dr Turyagyenda said: "With our EMIS being revamped, once it is operational, we shall be able to track all learners from primary one to university."