Covid-19: Ray of hope as positivity rate, cases drop

The government has reported a significant decline in the reported numbers of Covid-19 infections in the last seven days stretching June 21-27.
The analysis of the statistics indicates a total of 5,174 Covid-19 cases were reported in the period (June 21-27), a figure which is 33 per cent less than 7,770 cases reported in the previous seven days (June 14-20). 
Dr Henry Kyobe, the National Incident Commander for Covid-19, told Daily Monitor yesterday that they are still investigating the cause of the decline in reported cases of infections. 

But he did not rule out the possibility that the lockdown could be contributing to the decline.
“The decline in numbers of infections could be a true drop or an artefact. We will analyse and inform [the public] accordingly,” he said.  
However, a deeper analysis into the statistics indicates there was a 21 per cent decline in the number of tests conducted. 

Between June 21 and June 27, a total of 42,017 Covid-19 tests were conducted, which was less than the 53,393 samples tested between June 14 and June 20.
Asked why testing declined, Dr Kyobe said statistics on the number of people who are being tested with Rapid Diagnostic Kits (RDTs) for Covid-19 are not being reported.

“We have a concomitant roll out of RDTs that may not be captured in the system. That may explain why some of the cases could be diagnosed outside the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests [which are usually reported]. But it is also possible that we are having a true drop in cases,” he said. 

Dr Misaki Wayengera, the head of Government Scientific Advisory Committee, said it is unlikely that the cases have declined because the rate of hospitalisation for Covid-19 patients is still high.  
“It is too early for us to say cases have started to decline. We anticipated that we would start seeing the benefit of the lockdown and reduction in transmission in two weeks,” he said.

“Those who are infected are still in their homes and are not coming to the facilities to test because of the destabilisation of testing due to lockdown. The decline could be an artefact because more people who are severely ill are also coming to the hospital,” he said. 
A partial lockdown in the country started on June 7 with the closure of schools and places of worship and a total lockdown was announced on June 18 following the escalation of cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

Statistics
The latest statistics from the Health ministry since the outbreak of the pandemic indicate the country has registered a total of 79,434 infections, 989 deaths, and 52,382 recoveries. 
A total of 1,319,958 Covid-19 samples have been tested. A total of 1,180 Covid-19 patients are being managed in hospitals.