Europe’s new Covid-19 wave worries Uganda

A Ugandan army health official injects a woman with the Pfizer vaccine during a mass vaccination exercise at City Square in Kampala on October 14. PHOTO/ISAAC KASAMANI

What you need to know:

Europe is currently pushing to contain a new deadly wave of Covid-19, with more than 29,000 Covid-19 deaths reported on the continent last week.

Ugandan scientists are calling for a speedy increase in the country’s vaccination coverage, with their eyes set on booster doses and adherence to preventive measures to escape the scenario of a fresh spike in Covid cases now ravaging Europe.

Europe is currently pushing to contain a new deadly wave of Covid-19, with more than 29,000 Covid-19 deaths reported on the continent last week.

This is more than half of all the total global deaths from the virus for that week, which stood at 51,373, according to official statistics from the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Despite this high number of deaths, the WHO is again warning of more 700,000 new deaths by March in the region if quick action is not taken. Europe only has 10 percent of the global population.

The reported deaths, according to WHO, vary significantly within the European region, with Faroe Islands registering 150 percent increase in virus mortality.

Uganda falls short of the vaccination rate in virtually all the European countries in all dimensions, whether on first dose or those fully vaccinated.

Dr Alfred Driwale, the head of immunisation programme at the Health ministry, told Saturday Monitor in an interview that “after completing this round of vaccination, the next we shall be going for is booster doses; whether it is for Johnson & Johnson or other Covid-19 vaccines.”

“Booster doses are a must in the future because how this epidemic is evolving; nobody is authoritative about it. So there are so many unknowns, boosters can’t be ruled out. Even now, there is guidance to have boosters for Johnson & Johnson vaccine is coming out,” he added.

Prof Henry Kajumbula, who heads infection prevention committee in government Scientific Advisory Committee on Covid-19, said there is increasing evidence that the immunity from the vaccine wanes over time, after around six months.

“Some people who received second doses in the country, especially the elderly, have already reached the six months mark. So, scientists and government should discuss whether they should start getting booster doses,” he said.

Prof Pontiano Kaleebu, the director of Uganda Virus Research Institute, said in-country and foreign surveillance has unveiled increasing changes (mutation) in the coronavirus that may escape the protection from the vaccine.

The European countries reporting the highest numbers of new deaths include the Russian Federation (8,709, which is similar to the previous week’s figures), Ukraine (4,567, which is similar to the previous week’s figures) and Romania (2,002, which is a 15 percent decrease), as indicated in the WHO report for the European region.

Dr Andrew Kambugu, an infectious diseases specialist and the executive director of the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) at Makerere University, told this newspaper on Thursday that the onset of the winter season and insufficient vaccine coverage underpin the resurgence in Europe.

“The key thing there is that there are strong anti-vaccine movements, and so the majority of cases are being seen in unvaccinated individuals who don’t believe vaccines work,” he said.

“The main message here is that you need to have a certain threshold of vaccination coverage to effectively contain Covid-19,” he added.

Prof Kajumbula said vaccines have been proven to be very effective in preventing severe disease and death.

“Covid-19 vaccine can also minimise transmission but that is not its primary role. Vaccines work in combination with other preventive measures such as social distancing, wearing of facemask and hand sanitising,” he said. 

Dr Hans Klug, the WHO director for European region, told the BBC that an increase in mask wearing and observing other preventive measures could immediately help.

The news agency reported Dr Kluge to have said regional dominance of the more transmissible Delta variant was behind the surge.

Some of the governments of the affected countries are now making vaccination mandatory and declaring partial or total lockdown amid protests from their nationals, according to media reports.

According to WHO situation report, “The European region has continued to show an increase in both cases and deaths since early October, with more than 2.4 million new cases reported (an increase of 11 percent compared to the previous week) and more than 29,000 new deaths reported (similar to previous week’s figures).”

“Just over a third of all new cases are from only three countries - Germany (333,473 new cases, indicating a 31 percent increase), the United Kingdom (281,063 new cases, which is an 11 percent increase), and the Russian Federation (260,484 new cases).”

A separate statistics from the WHO for the three countries – Russian Federation, Ukraine and Romania, which have the highest death rates, indicate that in Russian Federation, the majority (82 percent) of its 144 million population have at least received one dose, while 37 percent are fully vaccinated.

But in Ukraine, another epicenter, 52 percent of the population has at least received first dose, while 22 percent are fully vaccinated. Romania has vaccinated 70 percent of its population with at least the first dose and 37 percent is fully vaccinated.

Dr Jane Ruth Aceng, the Health minister, said  last week that seven million Ugandans have been vaccinated either with the first or second dose, making the percentage of the population that has at least received first dose less than  16 percent of the national population.

Dr Kambugu said we are in red zone in the event of a third wave hitting Uganda. “We actually need to keep on track with Africa and Uganda’s vaccination programme because if we are seeing outbreaks in countries with the vaccination coverage above 70 percent, and for us we have barely covered the 10 percent threshold, it only tells us that we need to speed up,” he said.

Prof Kajumbula from the scientific committee said the country is no longer struggling with shortage but willingness to take up the vaccine.

President Museveni said last week that the country has already obtained 15.5 million doses of the vaccines.

He said by end of December, they would have acquired, through donations and direct procurement, a total 35 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines that can cover the 21.9 million people the government is racing to inoculate so as to put the pandemic under control for the economy to fully open.

Prof Kajumbula said cold seasons like winter increase the risk of Covid-19 by allowing the virus to stay longer on surfaces.

“Also when it is cold, people tend to congregate indoor and indoor interactions increase. These increases the risk of spreading the virus. Also the mucus membrane tend to be more susceptible to infection in cold seasons,” he added.

Dr Monica Musenero, an epidemiologist and senior presidential advisor on epidemics, told this reporter earlier that “the cold represses the respiratory system and causes it to secrete stress hormones that increase one’s susceptibility to viral infections such as coronavirus.”

Invest in therapeutics

Dr Kambugu said there is need to invest in drugs for Covid-19 treatment because even among those who are vaccinated, some may develop severe disease and they will need to be treated.

President Museveni said steps are underway to subject locally developed products such as Covidex to clinical trials for it to be approved as cure for the disease.

Another natural remedy called UBV-01N, which was developed by a team led by Dr Grace Nambatya, has already completed clinical trials and results are being awaited.

Dr Alfred Driwale, (head of immunisation programme at the Health ministry)

Booster doses are a must in the future because how this epidemic is evolving; nobody is authoritative about it. So there are so many unknowns, boosters can’t be ruled out. Even now, there is guidance to have boosters for Johnson & Johnson vaccine is coming out.

Prof Henry Kajumbula, (Scientific Advisory Committee on Covid-19)

... there is increasing evidence that the immunity from the vaccine wanes over time, after around six months. Some people who received second doses in the country, especially the elderly, have already reached the six months mark.

Dr Andrew Kambugu, (infectious diseases specialist)

I already know two drugs that have been approved [for Covid-19 treatment]. Vaccines are not as durable as initially imagined. The effort in the therapeutics should be strengthened, especially for the sake of vulnerable people in certain age groups and those with comorbidities.

Background

Most affected

The European countries reporting the highest numbers of new deaths include the Russian Federation (8,709, which is similar to the previous week’s figures), Ukraine (4,567, which is similar to the previous week’s figures) and Romania (2,002, which is a 15 percent decrease), as indicated in the WHO report for the European region.