In this file photo, food vendors at Mbale Main Market in December 2020. Prices of major food items across the country have gone high. PHOTO/FILE/RACHEL MABALA
The prices of basic food commodities, including sugar, rice, chicken, and meat, have risen sharply in recent months, putting additional strain on household budgets and prompting concerns over food security nationwide.
Data from local markets and national trade agencies indicate that the price of sugar has increased from Shs3,800 to Shs4,500 since the beginning of this month, depending on one’s location. Similarly, the price of chicken has surged from Shs15,000 to Shs25,000, depending on size and location. Beef prices have also increased from Shs12,000 to Shs16,000, depending on one’s location.
Vendors and analysts attribute the increases to a combination of rising fuel and transport costs, higher animal feed prices, and ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather and global commodity volatility.
“We used to buy sugar at wholesale for around Shs185,000 per bag of 50kgs. Now it’s almost Shs210,000, and customers are shocked,” Ms Judith Apio, a retailer in Mbale City, disclosed, adding that the net effect is a retail price of a kilogramme of sugar going for Shs4,500.
A herdsman (not in picture) takes animals to graze in Bugweri District on May 17, 2024. PHOTO/MICHAEL KAKUMIRIZI
Livestock farmers say the cost of maintaining poultry and cattle has become unsustainable for small-scale producers.
“Animal feed prices have doubled, and vaccines are harder to get. We’re forced to raise prices or stop farming altogether,” Mr Peter Akongo, a poultry farmer in Amudat District, said, adding that the rise in meat prices is also being fuelled by drought conditions in semi-arid areas.
Ms Pauline Akullo, an economist, warned that unless urgent interventions are made—such as subsidies on key food items, improved supply chain infrastructure, and better regulation of cartels—the cost of living will continue to rise.
And for families like that of Mary Kafuko, a mother of three in Ivukula Sub-county, Namutumba District, this is anything but good news. “We used to eat meat at least once a week, but now we have taken time without eating meat. Even sugar for tea has become a struggle,” the matriarch of the family said.
Mr David Munyafu, a prominent cattle trader in Soroti City, attributed the rise in meat prices to several market challenges that began last year. He added that the growing demand for livestock exports to Kenya is affecting the availability of cattle in the local market.
“We are facing a lot of challenges, including the export of animals to Kenya, which is impacting local supply and driving up prices,” he explained.
Mr Munyafu said the price of a cow has risen significantly—from around Shs1m to approximately Shs2.5m, depending on its weight.
Tough times
Traders at markets in Kampala, Mbale, and Mbarara have reported a drop in customer purchases and a rise in complaints.
“People come, ask the price, then walk away,” Mr David Okello, a retail grocer in Mbale said. He added: “Some now prefer buying quarter-kilo packs.”
The spike is hurting not just households, but also small businesses—especially bakeries, juice vendors, and tea sellers. Some have already increased their prices, while others are cutting corners to stay afloat.
Agricultural produce in a market on the Ntungamo-Rukungiri road. PHOTO/ALEX ASHABA
According to Bank of Uganda’s monetary policy statement of May 2025, both headline inflation (3.4 percent) and core inflation (3.9 percent) remained below the medium-term target of 5.0 percent.
“In light of the prevailing domestic and global uncertainties and the elevated risks to the inflation outlook, the [monetary policy committee or MPC] decided to maintain the CBR at 9.75 percent,” Mr Michael Atingi-Ego, the central bank governor, said in the policy statement this past week, adding: “The MPC considers the current policy stance appropriate to maintain inflation around the target while supporting sustainable growth and socio-economic transformation.”
In its latest policy statement, the central bank was alive to the fact that “adverse weather conditions [are] affecting food production.” Indeed, experts attribute the rising food prices in the country to harsh weather conditions contributing to inflation in Uganda.
Ms Jesca Asingwire, an economist, warned that the effects of harsh weather conditions are not only causing discomfort for Ugandans but are also having broader economic impacts. She noted that rising food prices, fuelled by extreme weather, are contributing to inflationary pressures in the country.
Inflationary pressures
The latest consumer price index (CPI) identified two drivers for annual core inflation—annual services inflation (5.0 percent up from 4.9 in March) and annual other goods inflation (3.0 percent up from 2.6 percent in March). Core inflation measures price trends by excluding volatile items like food and energy.
While the April CPI print put core inflation at 3.9 percent (up from 3.6 percent in March), headline inflation, which also includes food prices, was 3.5 percent (up from 3.4 percent in March).
Mr Ronald Kyagulanyi, a senior lecturer at Muteesa I Royal University, attributed the continued rise in commodity prices in Uganda to several structural and supply-side challenges in the economy.
“When supply is low, prices naturally go up. In Uganda, we are currently facing a production problem, which contributes significantly to these shortages,” Mr Kyagulanyi said.
He added: “You will find an oversupply of certain goods that are not in high demand, while essential items remain scarce. This misalignment between supply and demand is a core issue.”
Mr Kyagulanyi cited agricultural trends as a contributing factor to this imbalance. “Many farmers have shifted from growing food crops like cassava in favour of cash crops such as coffee. This shift has led to shortages in staple foods like matooke, whose prices have now gone up significantly,” he said.
He added: “Some people have recently gained access to income and are increasing their demand for goods, putting pressure on limited supplies. This leads traders to raise prices. At the same time, whenever raw materials become scarce, the cost of production rises, pushing prices even higher.”
Traders sell fruits in Nakasero market in 2023. PHOTO | ABUBAKER LUBOWA
Mr Kyagulanyi called for urgent investment in local production. “We need to support our producers, especially those in food production, to boost supply.”
Ms Akullo also attributed this sharp rise to several factors, most notably unfavourable weather conditions.
“The recent dry spell has affected crop yields, reducing the availability of fresh produce in markets across the country and consequently driving up prices,” she said.
‘Not all is lost’
Dr Paddy Mugambe, the Dean of the School of Business and Management at Uganda Management Institute (UMI), attributed the ongoing rise in commodity prices to deep-rooted economic factors.
He told Monitor that while recent price increases may appear marginal, they have significant effects, especially when they occur in essential inputs like fuel.
“Even a small increase in fuel prices can have a ripple effect across the entire economy since fuel is a critical input in all production processes,” Dr Mugambe said.
He added: “There are structural problems in our supply systems. On the global stage, for example, when countries like the United States impose tariffs, it affects global market perceptions and consumer behaviour. Some people begin hoarding goods, anticipating further price hikes, hoping to profit later.”
Dr Mugambe warned that Uganda is approaching a politically sensitive period, which often results in increased liquidity.
“During political seasons, there is usually a surge in the amount of money circulating. For instance, when you hear that each Member of Parliament has been allocated Shs100m, it may seem isolated, but, in reality, it increases the overall money supply. More money chasing the same amount of goods leads to inflation, which destabilises the economy,” he said.
Dr Mugambe added that despite reports of funding cuts—such as the loss of USAID support—there is still a significant amount of money in circulation, contrary to what some may assume.
Price regulation needed?
Yet, for consumers, the inflationary pressures are there for all to see. According to a survey by this publication, the price of Kaiso rice increased from Shs2,500 to Shs3,800 per kilogramme. Elsewhere, a kilogramme of Super rice increased from Shs3,500 to Shs6,000.
Several experts argue that long-term solutions are needed to stabilise prices and protect low-income households from chronic food insecurity.
Across Uganda, the cost of sugar, a household essential has surged sharply in recent weeks, leaving families scrambling to adjust.
Mr Joseph Balikowa, a prominent businessman in Uganda and Kenya, said increased fuel and transport costs are exacerbating matters by pushing up distribution expenses.
He said there is export pressure, with some producers channelling more sugar to higher-paying regional markets. Despite growing frustration, the government has not announced any major intervention.
“This is where price regulation is needed. Essential commodities like sugar should not be left entirely to market forces, especially when rural and urban poor are hit the hardest,” Mr Balikowa said.
In several homes, families are finding creative ways to adjust. Some are switching to natural sweeteners like honey. Others are cutting out sugar altogether.
He said for now, sugar remains a painful example of how quickly economic shifts can affect daily life—and just how vulnerable Uganda’s consumers are to changes in essential commodity markets.
Coping mechanisms
Mr Joseph Balikowa, a prominent businessman in Uganda and Kenya said there is need for price regulation for essential commodities like sugar. In several homes, he says families are switching to natural sweeteners like honey while others are cutting out sugar altogether.
