IGAD unveils early warning tools to curb climate-linked conflict in East Africa
(L-R) IGAD Uganda mission head Joselyn Bigirwa, Uganda’s Foreign Affairs peace and development official Philip Rukikaire, and Ireland Embassy development specialist Lynn Waller chat during a regional workshop in Entebbe on May 13, 2025. Photo/Paul Adude
What you need to know:
- Development partners also backed the initiative.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has launched a new data-driven early warning system aimed at helping member states predict and prevent violent conflict driven by climate change in vulnerable cross-border regions.
Officials from across the region gathered in Entebbe on Tuesday for a three-day workshop to validate IGAD’s upgraded Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN), which now integrates climate indicators such as rainfall, drought, vegetation stress, and migration trends into its human security model.
“These crises are not random; they are interconnected,” said Joselyn Bigirwa, head of the IGAD mission to Uganda, while opening the workshop on behalf of IGAD Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyehu.
She added: “When resources shrink, tensions grow. While climate change does not always cause conflict, it amplifies risks in fragile settings, straining food systems, displacing communities, and testing governance.”
The tool aims to produce actionable early warning alerts by analyzing vast environmental and conflict-related data to identify areas at risk of instability due to climate stress.
The alerts are intended to support both field officers and policymakers in crafting timely, targeted interventions.
“Droughts, water scarcity, and poor harvests can fuel tensions and competition, igniting conflicts, especially where governance is weak,” Ms Bigirwa noted.
The upgraded system is being developed in collaboration with IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) and other partner agencies.
Philip Rukikaire, head of regional peace and development at Uganda’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the initiative aligns with government priorities, especially in historically volatile border zones such as Karamoja.
“Data-driven decision-making will help allocate resources effectively and intervene before tensions escalate,” he said. “The inclusion of Karamoja in the implementation phase will complement our peacebuilding and development efforts in the region.”
The CEWARN platform will initially be piloted in climate-vulnerable borderlands including Aweil (South Sudan), South Karamoja (Uganda-Kenya), and Mandera (Kenya-Somalia), areas that have seen recurring conflict linked to environmental shocks and resource competition.
Camlus Omogo, CEWARN Director, emphasized the need to link scientific forecasting with grassroots conflict resolution. “From weather forecasts to analyzing the conflict implications, then engaging communities on how to share resources and manage migration patterns—this integrated approach is key to preventing violence,” he said.
Development partners also backed the initiative. Lynn Waller, a development specialist from the Embassy of Ireland in Uganda, said climate prediction tools must be both scientifically robust and grounded in local context.
“Communities at the frontlines of the climate crisis need tools to anticipate and adapt. Accurate data helps support livelihoods and avert conflict,” she said.
With climate-induced shocks becoming more frequent across the Horn of Africa, IGAD hopes the system will serve as a blueprint for early action and regional cooperation on climate-security risks.
