Opposition leaders attend prayers at the National Unity Platform party headquarters in Kavule, a Kampala suburb on January 21, 2024. PHOTO/MICHAEL KAKUMIRIZI
Ugandan Opposition forces are once again back to the drawing board, ahead of the 2026 elections, to reach a consensus to work together, which they think will finally tilt the direction of votes in their favour.
Over the years, the Opposition parties have toyed with the idea of forming coalitions and alliances ahead of polls, but each attempt has always been met with failure, with analysts attributing it to a number of factors, including selfishness, lack of ideology and greed among the party leaders.
Mr Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a senior lecturer at Makerere University College of Humanities and Social Sciences, in a 2020 analysis titled: “Forging Political Coalitions in Uganda, a difficult but necessary task in an emerging democracy” wrote that in every general election cycle since independence, there have been attempts at forming political coalitions—but each time they either failed immediately, or briefly materialised before collapsing after the elections.
“There are many explanations for these coalition failures, ranging from inner-party struggles to contextual conditions,” he said. Uganda has had a number of coalitions and alliances since the eve of independence when the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and the Kabaka Yekka party, came together to form a coalition.
Then came the 1979 coalition under the Uganda National Liberation Front, which was formed to oust the then-president, Gen Idi Amin Dada, from power, the 1982 Popular Resistance Army (PRA) led by Museveni and the Uganda Freedom Fighters (UFF) led by former President Yusuf Lule.
It was this 1982 coalition that coalesced different actors together at Luweero to fight against Milton Obote, whom Museveni had accused of rigging the 1980 elections.
With the state capture of power by the ragtag NRA soldiers and the banning of political parties, Uganda effectively became a one-party state, closely controlled by the Bushmen who took over the affairs of the state on January 26, 1986. It was not until 20 years, in 2006, that the first multiparty elections were held in the country after the 2005 referendum, which saw the return of multiparty politics in the country.
However, the banning of the political parties did not stop those from within the one-party system from forming a coalition to challenge President Museveni, who now had a firm grip on power.
The Inter-Party Forces Coalition (IPFC), led by the veteran politician Paul Ssewogerere, unsuccessfully challenged President Museveni in the 1996 presidential elections. Then came the 2011 elections, when the Opposition parties formed the Inter-Parties Coalition (IPC) led by Col (rtd) Kiiza Besigye, which again proved unsuccessful.
In 2015, Opposition forces formed the Democratic Alliance (TDA), which would front one presidential candidate and joint Opposition candidates in parliamentary and local elections.
While the majority of the Opposition fringe parties nominating Amama Mbabazi, the dominant party, the FDC rejected his candidacy, whom they said had just crossed from his comfort zone to join the Opposition only to get the flag. This led to the collapse of the alliance, and each party went its own way.
Why coalitions remain a pipe dream
Ahead of the 2021, there were calls for a coalition to challenge the incumbent, but like the previous attempts, this also collapsed due to a number of factors. Analysts say there is a lack of trust and cooperation among different political parties in the country and that coalitions have often been built on shifting sands, with partners quickly turning against each other due to underlying mistrust and disagreements.
There is the question of NRM’s long-standing grip on power and its willingness to use various tactics to maintain control, which has made it difficult for Opposition parties to form effective coalitions.
Internal divisions and personal rivalries have also been cited as one of the reasons why Opposition parties have failed to form meaningful coalitions to challenge the ruling NRM party. The current electoral system, which Opposition politicians say favours the ruling NRM party and clips the wings of the Opposition parties from participating in elections, has also contributed to the failure of coalitions, alongside the repressive state actors who are ready to use violence and brutality to suppress the opposition voices and activities.
NUP-PFF planned coalition.
It has emerged that talks are already underway to give another shot at a coalition ahead of the 2026 elections. This time, two relatively younger parties are coalescing together, the National Unity Platform that has already tasted the bitterness of Ugandan elections, and the People’s Front for Freedom that is waiting for its certificate of registration. Mr Ndebesa yesterday said this could be the right time for them to coalesce because the conditions are now ripe.
“My take is that I can see it coming because in the first place, PFF hasn’t had time, I think, to organise, after all, it is not even registered. And, therefore, it would be good for them to survive in this circumstance to form a coalition,” he said. He said that in the past, Opposition parties have bitterly conflicted and that this led to the collapse of such coalitions before achieving their objectives. “But if they listen to the sense of wisdom and put down that kind of hostility, it will be a formidable force for the NRA.
And what I mean by formidable force, I do not necessarily mean a formidable force in winning elections, but a formidable force to shape the politics in the country,” he said. According to Ndebesa, the Opposition now knows that NRM has no time to listen to and respect dissenting voices, and, therefore, the only option is for them to unite and pose a common threat to the insensitivity of the ruling party.
“Because currently, the NRI does not listen to the voices of dissent. It does not respect the voices of dissent. There is no sign that the NRIM government wants to listen, cooperate or accommodate any alternative use at all. But if they form a coalition, they might reduce that kind of attitude that is there today,” he said. Sultan Juma Kakuba, a senior lecturer of political science and head of the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Kyambogo University, said for the Opposition parties to form a successful coalition, they must first of all identify and accept their weaknesses. “We have not had any successful coalition. This alliance has never been there. Yet in our neighbourhood here in Kenya, it has worked.
The first step, they should identify their weaknesses and come up with ground rules, so that before they go for any alliance, they can have those ground rules, how the alliance is going to be,” he said.
He said every time Opposition groups attempt to come together, there has been the question of the individual interests that overshadows the potential alliance. “So that’s one of the weak areas they needed to find a ground rule because if they are going to an alliance, they must have a rule that so and so is going to be the candidate, and that person should be acceptable to all,” he said. “And then the other one, when they go in, they should know that they have a common enemy,” he added.
He also said that after identifying the common enemy, they should devise strategies to deal with that enemy because the enemy will not be sleeping. “They needed to look at the other side. Normally, this is not the time when the incumbent is trying to fish out the potential challenger and destroy either to buy in or frustrate. So they have to be ready for that. This is how I see it,” he said.
What they said...
Richard Todwong, NRM Sec Gen
Whenever elections approach, Opposition parties form alliances to defeat NRM but they have always lost. As long as the Opposition continue thinking they are political clubs based in Kampala instead of being on the ground, they should forget removing NRM.
Jimmy Akena, the president of UPC
They have proved that the 50+1 threat is real, that is why they have abandoned the Political Parties and Other Organisations Act under IPOD, and that is why they rushed to amend the UPDF Act to scare Opposition players seeking to capture power.
Saddam Gayiiraa, the PPP president
I do not see that happening because every individual is pre-occupied with winning in their constituencies. The major concern for everybody is how to keep their seats occupied that is why parties fight each other to get seats in Parliament.
Mugisha Muntu, the ANT president
We had one in 2011, another in 2014 that lasted until 2015. The Democratic Alliance was the most successful but collapsed. We had nine parties participating but they failed to agree on one candidate. As ANT, we are focusing on efforts of a coalition.
Erias Lukwago, the Head of PFF
We are dealing with a military government and removing it is not easier. Picking up arms can be catastrophic, we need much more collective actions to build a national critical mass. We need a common front not mere merger of political parties.
Patrick Amuriat Oboi, the FDC president
The level of trust among Opposition political parties is the major source of instability. The egocentricism, competing for space and undermining each other. During The Democratic Alliance, FDC refused to take part due to suspicion.
