NRM party supporters jubilate during the relaunch of the Office of the National Chairman in Kampala on October 19, 2022. PHOTO | ABUBAKER LUBOWA
Experts and political players yesterday punched holes into the authenticity of the membership registers of different political parties, after the total number of members from the four leading political parties, exceeded the total number of Ugandans. The sum of the total members from the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party, National Unity Platform (NUP), Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), and the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) is 46.2 million, and yet the total country’s population is 45.9 million, according to last year’s National Population and Housing Census (NPHC) results.
NRM claims its members are 20.2 million, including 458,400 ineligible voters who are between 16 years and 17 years. NUP and FDC each claim their members are now 10 million, while the UPC says its members are estimated to be six million. Other political parties, including the Democratic Party (DP), Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), and the Justice Forum (JEEMA), all said registration is still going on and shall be completed by early June to ascertain the exact number of their members. Political players and experts said the discrepancies in numbers are due to the exaggerations that are being made by the political parties ahead of the 2026 General Election. A senior statistician told this newspaper that these results cannot in any way be compared with the NPHC due to the differences in the data collection methods. Officials from the Electoral Commission (EC), the country’s national body mandated to conduct elections, said the only register that is authoritative is the National Voters’ register, which will be released soon.
Mr Nathan Nandala Mafabi, the Secretary General of FDC (right), addresses FDC supporters during a consultative meeting at Mbale Cricket Ground in Mbale City. PHOTO/FRED WAMBEDE
Numbers According to its latest yellow book (a party register), NRM claims that its membership has grown from 10.7 million in 2021 to the current 20.7 million members. Of these, 10.8m are female and 9.8 million are male. The further breakdown indicates that the number of elderly are 1.7 million, youth are 7.4 million, persons living with disabilities (PWDs) are 122,558, while members who are below the age of 18 are 458,400. Observers say the NRM always courts youth like students as part of efforts to recruit members. Mr Emmanuel Dombo, the party spokesperson, said the increased number is due to their intensified mobilisation, which has attracted new members to the party. “We have seen our old members who initially defected from the party returning, the time when we updated this register many people had turned 18, which led to the increment in the number. NRM is a party that has been here for a long time and we have the support,” he said. The FDC party’s Electoral Commission Secretary General, Mr Augustine Ojobile, said they currently have a membership of about 10 million voters in their registries. “Our internal register is ready.
In every village, we have about 29 leaders, and that goes all over the whole country. If you add parishes and counties, we have about seven million leaders who are supposed to be members. So if you add other members, we have about 10 million voters,” he said. Mr Ojobile further added that the registration, which shifted to online, is still going on and the numbers are likely to shoot up before elections kick in. “The online registration is still underway. People have the liberty to use their phones to register and their status reflects here on our system at the headquarters. We eliminated the physical registration and it is working,” he said. Despite experiencing raids from the security organs that reportedly took their registers, officials from the NUP boast of having 10 million members. The party deputy spokesperson, Mr Alex Mufumbiro, told this publication that this figure is as of two years ago, noting that the number is likely to have increased. “People are still registering to become members of NUP every day.
Membership has grown, especially as more people have turned 18 years old,” he said. Mr Mufumbiro added: “The Secretariat is still updating the register, especially after the recent incidents where some documents were taken during attacks on our offices.” UPC party Secretary General Fred Ebil said the party is still registering members till late May when they will hold the Delegates Conference. “So far we have around six million members across the country because for us one to be regarded as a member, they must buy the party card and as well pay annual subscription. We are only left with a few regions like Ankole, Busoga, and Bugisu to wind up the exercise,” The National Chairman of the People’s Progressive Party (PPP), Mr Sadam Gayira, said they currently have 5,000 members on their register. Officials from JEEMA, ANT, PPP, and DP said they are currently conducting registration of members and shall release their total membership soon.
NUP party president Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu stands on top his car as supporters welcome him in Wobulenzi Town Council, Luweero District on September 8, 2023. PHOTO/DAN WANDERA
ANT’s National Coordinator Alice Alaso said they distributed different registers across the country and have since been notified by their regional coordinators that some registers are full. DP party spokesperson Okoler Opio Lo-Amanu revealed that the party currently does not have an official membership register because the previous one they had was taken by the former national organising secretary, Mr Suleiman Kidandala, to NUP when they were defecting in 2020. Mr Okoler noted that the party has since embarked on a fresh registration exercise in preparation for the 2026 polls, and a clearer picture of the party’s membership will be available once the registration process is completed.
“You know, due to funding constraints, we’ve been relying on volunteers to carry out the registration exercise, and we don’t have a strict timeline.” “However, we are going to conduct a Delegates’ Conference on May 30, and we shall recall all the registers from the field. That is when we shall be able to know how many members we have,” he said.
Numbers discrepancies Experts yesterday said the claims by the political parties are simply lies and exaggerations because there is no way the parties can have numbers that are above the official Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) NPHC results. The December 2024 NPHC final released by UBOS indicated that Uganda has a total population of 45.9 million people. Of these, the report indicated that 23.2 million are above 18 years while the rest are below. About 5.3 million people were between the age of 15 years and 19 years, according to the report. Observers said it is possible for these political parties to be sharing some members since there is no mechanism on how one is restricted from having more than one part card, since some of them are given out free of charge. FDC party president Patrick Oboi Amuriat blamed this swelling figure on the NRM party, which he accused of inflating its voter register to create a false impression of widespread support. “The NRM last time claimed they had 18 million voters, but when you look at the actual votes they received, the numbers don’t add up,” Mr Amuriat said. He added:
“They are doing this to create the illusion of having massive support so that when they are declared winners, it appears justified. They are manipulating figures but we are used to their tricks.” Mr Mufumbiro also echoed concerns over the authenticity of the NRM’s membership figures, accusing the party of inflating numbers. “In NRM, they even register minors — that’s why the numbers are huge,” he claimed. “I was with one of their members this morning who confirmed that they also count minors as part of their membership. Their numbers are exaggerated, and they are not being truthful.” On the other hand, Mr Gayira said the NRM, NUP, FDC and UPC are not being truthful. “The party membership do not need to have millions because we see parties in developed countries like USA having less than 200,000 members but with millions of supporters. These people register their supporters and claim they are members yet these swing from one popular candidate to another,” he said.
EC voters register Since 2001, the National Voters Register released by the EC ahead of any national elections has never reached 20 million voters. The figures, for example, rose from 15.2 million voters in 2016 to 18.1 million voters in the 2021 General Election. EC spokesperson Julius Mucunguzi yesterday said: “The most authoritative figures on the number of registered voters will be the national voters register that shall be provided by the EC.” “The register will be released at the conclusion of the display and cleanup exercise that shall kick off on April 26 to 15th May, which will give an opportunity to the public and stakeholders to check particulars on the register on every polling station across the country, checking if there is any person who died, foreigner or appear more than once that needs to be deleted and after the EC Parish Tribunal will with recommendation from the Commission sort this issues and after wards a final clean voter’s register will be released,” he added.
One of the requirements for anyone to vote is a National Identification Number (NIN) that is issued by the National Identification and Registration Authority (Nira). Statistics from Nira indicate that there are 27.4 million Ugandans with National Identity cards (NINs). Of these, 6.3 million are between 0 years and 17 years, according to the statistics. A senior statistician, who asked not to be named in order to speak freely, said it’s unfair to compare an assumed data with a national data. “The way this data was collected is very different. These political parties do not follow the statistical methods while collecting. They wake up in the morning and assume their methods basing on what they want to achieve and start so they are too different,” the statistician said.
