The 23 roadblocks on Uganda’s drive to middle-income status

President Museveni will tomorrow receive a detailed status report on Uganda’s quest for middle income status, and ask ministers to explain the unresolved bottlenecks hindering the country’s effective socio-economic transformation.

Sources close to State House yesterday talked of  “a tough day for ministers” since the President is expected to read “the riot act” over failure to implement some of the 23 presidential directives issued on June 23, 2016.       

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The President had hoped that implementation of his guidelines would propel the country into the middle-income status by 2020.  This, however, did not happen, forcing Ministry of Finance officials to set a new target for the middle-income status dream. 

The major reason for these directives, according to the President’s Office, is to transform citizens into a better livelihood.

In July last year, the President reminded ministers to take the middle-income bottlenecks seriously and tasked Vice President Jessica Alupo to work with Apex Platform and fast-track the implementation of the directives.

The Apex Platform is a reform convened by the Office of the President as a high level oversight forum for uptake, learning and executive decision-making to foster transparency, accountability, and promotion of good governance practices in service delivery.

Weak results

The permanent secretary in the President’s Office, Hajj Yunus Kakande, explained that the Apex Platform was designed to facilitate oversight implementation of the National Development Plan (NDP) III and subsequent NDP’s, the ruling Party Manifesto and the presidential directives.

 “Whereas the different actors in the policy space present different ideas, represent diverse interests and operate under several institutional arrangements, the current environment (knowledge ecosystem) does not seem to support functional synergies,” Hajj Kakande said, reiterating “This translates into weak results analysis, utilisation and learning among themselves and to inform decision-making.”

He added: “Ineffective communication and citizen engagement on government performance and results in Public Policy/Programme/Project implementation, are a notable characteristic of weak oversight. Overall, the challenges facing Uganda’s Public Policy/Programme planning, design and implementation are linked to inability to follow a complete project life cycle.”

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The Apex Platform is supposed to be held bi-annually and chaired by the President.  In the absence of the President, the Vice President chairs the Forum.

The Minister of State in charge of Economic Monitoring is expected to give a feedback report on the status of implementation of the Apex Platform decisions and presidential directives.

“The Presidency through its oversight function has noted numerous bottlenecks in Public Policy Management (specifically Public Investment Policy Management Systems) such as: the absence of effective functional synergies and structural efficiencies needed to achieve lasting results, mainly attributed to implementation lapses in the delivery of results,” Hajj Kakande said.

NDP III implementation
The minister in charge of the Presidency recommended to Cabinet the establishment of the Apex Platform to improve implementation of the Medium-term Development Plan. Apex was approved by Cabinet under Minute 214 (CT 2018) Decision 4 (g) and adopted as a necessary NDP III implementation reform under Programme 18.

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The team led by the Minister for Presidency, Ms Milly Babalanda, State Minister for Economic Monitoring Peter Ogwang, Hajj Kakande and the secretariat headed by the director for economic monitoring, Mr Vincent Tumusiime Bamugaya, is expected to present its inaugural report to the President at Kololo Ceremonial grounds today.

Ministers, MPs, selected local government leaders and technocrats from various MDAs are expected to attend the meeting. Members of the NRM Manifesto implementation team and Central Executive Committee of the ruling party were also invited. 

After missing the 2020 target, President Museveni tasked Apex Platform to monitor his directives as part of the renewed government efforts to fast-track the country’s realisation of a low middle-income status next year. 

The Public Policy Executive Oversight Forum (Apex Platform) according to Hajj Kakande, is “a home-made Oversight M&E solution” developed as a result of a highly consultative process among key stake holders on how to address effective service delivery.

Why previous efforts failed?
Hajj Kakande told Daily Monitor at the weekend that NDP I and NDP II did not fully meet the expectations of the Ugandans because of a weak oversight function of the Office of the President,  and the Office of the Prime Minister. 

“Our vision and commitment as the government is still to build a modern, people-centred, independent and self-sustaining economy, as envisaged in NDP III,” he said.  He added: “I cannot give you details now but we have been monitoring and evaluating the 23 presidential directives and we are now going to present the findings to H.E as the head of executive for his guidance.”

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With Uganda’s economy recovering from the shackles of a deadly pandemic, Mr Museveni believes the country will strike above the middle income status GDP per capita minimum of $1,030 by 2023.

However, Mr Fred Muhumuza, an economist, at the weekend described Uganda’s quest for a middle income status as a mere dream due to the endemic challenges in the economy. “[The 2023 target] is too short a time and we are never serious beyond slogans,” he said. 

World Bank classification
World Bank divides economies into four income groupings: low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high. Income is measured using gross national income (GNI) per capita, in US dollars, converted from local currency using the World Bank Atlas method.

Estimates of GNI are, however, obtained from economists in World Bank country units; and the size of the population is estimated by World Bank demographers from a variety of sources, including the UN’s biennial World Population Prospects.

According to World Bank, low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita of $1,045 or less in 2020; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $1,046 and $4,095; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $4,096 and $12,695; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,696 or more.

Currently, Uganda is among the 27 economies in the low income cluster. Uganda’s per capita is still below $1,000 just like Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, Somalia, DR Congo, Togo and Mozambique, among others. 

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For Uganda to attain the lower middle-income status in the remaining two years, NPA officials say the economy has to grow by more than 15 percent annually.

However, with the current per capita income of $987 and the rolling of Parish Development Model initiative, Mr Henry Musasizi, the State Minister for General Duties in the Ministry of Finance, is optimistic that Uganda will achieve the middle-income status next year. 

“We are definitely on course,” Mr Musasizi said, adding that “… We are addressing the bottlenecks in the economy with the Parish Development Model (PDM) and other efforts, we are confident that by 2023, our per capital income will be in the range of $1,049.” 

The minister, however, noted that for Uganda to be confirmed as a middle-income country, the projected national income per capita of $1,049 must be maintained for three years.   

What others say
 Mr Julius Kapwepwe, a development aid policy specialist, says the President’s directives would not be fully obtained in a decade because development is not linear, but a protracted investment.

Mr Kapwepwe says there has been relative success in industrialisation, where government-private sector cooperation gave birth to Tiang Tung industrial park hitherto, with zero factories in 2018 and 32 factories by January 2022. 

Mbale Foam factory alone had created more than 200 jobs by January, is paying for Uganda’s power which otherwise government would pay for no-use under “Deemed Power agreements”. 

This industrial park is just 25km to Kenya border and near the Naivasha SGR point and logistics centre. The park is also a strategic feeder into the markets of South Sudan, DRC & northern Tanzania.

Uganda’s most revenue from northern Tanzania market will be through Lake Nalubaale after water infrastructure of railways’ repairs and new ferries like Kaawa and Kabalega, new lake re-mapping, plus locomotives and wagons under the East African Community  infrastructure inte-connectivity projects are soon complete by December 2023.  

Also a sample of FY 2021/2022 shows government’s renewed energy for synergy and re-aligning national budget to NDP III in advancing the PDM. 
“At least over Shs200billion was appropriated, including for the resolving fund to communities across the 10,954 parishes in Uganda as the President promised in electoral campaign in 2020 and 2021,” Mr Kapwepwe says. 

He adds: “If we streamline and segment the markets and off-takers under PDM, the anticipated commercial production and productivity will not only feed factories into Mbale and other 44 industrial parks, but also significantly catapult Uganda’s GDP from current meagre size to about $60 billion as early as 2026.”

23 roadblocks

Lower the costs of electricity
Standard Gauge Railway construction
Build the 22 Industrial Parks
Investors must get licences in 2 days
Zero tolerance to corruption
Poor regulation
 Fix 13 issues in Agriculture sector
Subsistence farming
Lack of linkages between research institutions and farmers
Low use of fertilizers
Enterprise selection & Land fragmentation
Value addition
High cost of finance
Agricultural machinery for ploughing
Production of acaricides, injectable, salts, vaccines etc.
Agro-practices- spacing crops, water harvest
Elimination of overfishing
Promote irrigation schemes
Post-harvest handling practices
Farmers groups – market their products
Petroleum & Gas-expedite licensing and production
Nobody should interfere with exploration of minerals
Environmental degradation- forests and wetlands
Poor service delivery- education, health, feeder roads
Land reforms to solve historical injustices in Buganda
 Descent Housing for armed forces
Setting up National Airline
Pay army veterans (Akasiimo) and compensate those who lost cattle
Stop criminally and irresponsible press and support ICT innovations (electronics)
Eliminate corruption from Judiciary
 Planned urban devt and provision of safe water
Every village gets at least one bore-hole, a protected spring well 
Promote health education targeting  youth
Raise ideological level of the youth/ skilling/ job creation
Stop Tax evasion
Building a packaging industry